How much does a vote matter? (Article)

How much does a vote matter? (Article)

If you care about social impact, is voting important? In this piece, Rob investigates the two key things that determine the impact of your vote:

  1. The chances of your vote changing an election’s outcome.
  2. How much better some candidates are for the world as a whole, compared to others.

He then discusses a couple of the best arguments against voting in important elections, namely:

  1. If an election is competitive, that means other people disagree about which option is better, and you’re at some risk of voting for the worse candidate by mistake.
  2. While voting itself doesn’t take long, knowing enough to accurately pick which candidate is better for the world actually does take substantial effort — effort that could be better allocated elsewhere.

Finally, Rob covers the impact of donating to campaigns or working to "get out the vote," which can be effective ways to generate additional votes for your preferred candidate.

We last released this article in October 2020, but we think it largely still stands up today.

Chapters:

  • Rob's intro (00:00:00)
  • Introduction (00:01:12)
  • What's coming up (00:02:35)
  • The probability of one vote changing an election (00:03:58)
  • How much does it matter who wins? (00:09:29)
  • What if you’re wrong? (00:16:38)
  • Is deciding how to vote too much effort? (00:21:47)
  • How much does it cost to drive one extra vote? (00:25:13)
  • Overall, is it altruistic to vote? (00:29:38)
  • Rob's outro (00:31:19)

Producer: Keiran Harris

Jaksot(320)

2025 Highlight-o-thon: Oops! All Bests

2025 Highlight-o-thon: Oops! All Bests

It’s that magical time of year once again — highlightapalooza! Stick around for one top bit from each episode we recorded this year, including:Kyle Fish explaining how Anthropic’s AI Claude descends i...

29 Joulu 20251h 40min

#232 – Andreas Mogensen on what we owe 'philosophical Vulcans' and unconscious beings

#232 – Andreas Mogensen on what we owe 'philosophical Vulcans' and unconscious beings

Most debates about the moral status of AI systems circle the same question: is there something that it feels like to be them? But what if that’s the wrong question to ask? Andreas Mogensen — a senior ...

19 Joulu 20252h 37min

#231 – Paul Scharre on how AI-controlled robots will and won't change war

#231 – Paul Scharre on how AI-controlled robots will and won't change war

In 1983, Stanislav Petrov, a Soviet lieutenant colonel, sat in a bunker watching a red screen flash “MISSILE LAUNCH.” Protocol demanded he report it to superiors, which would very likely trigger a ret...

17 Joulu 20252h 45min

AI might let a few people control everything — permanently (article by Rose Hadshar)

AI might let a few people control everything — permanently (article by Rose Hadshar)

Power is already concentrated today: over 800 million people live on less than $3 a day, the three richest men in the world are worth over $1 trillion, and almost six billion people live in countries ...

12 Joulu 20251h

#230 – Dean Ball on how AI is a huge deal — but we shouldn’t regulate it yet

#230 – Dean Ball on how AI is a huge deal — but we shouldn’t regulate it yet

Former White House staffer Dean Ball thinks it's very likely some form of 'superintelligence' arrives in under 20 years. He thinks AI being used for bioweapon research is "a real threat model, obvious...

10 Joulu 20252h 54min

#229 – Marius Hobbhahn on the race to solve AI scheming before models go superhuman

#229 – Marius Hobbhahn on the race to solve AI scheming before models go superhuman

We often worry about AI models “hallucinating” or making honest mistakes. But what happens when a model knows the truth, but decides to deceive you anyway to achieve a goal of its own? This isn’t sci-...

3 Joulu 20253h 3min

Rob & Luisa chat kids, the 2016 fertility crash, and how the 50s invented parenting that makes us miserable

Rob & Luisa chat kids, the 2016 fertility crash, and how the 50s invented parenting that makes us miserable

Global fertility rates aren’t just falling: the rate of decline is accelerating. From 2006 to 2016, fertility dropped gradually, but since 2016 the rate of decline has increased 4.5-fold. In many weal...

25 Marras 20251h 59min

#228 – Eileen Yam on how we're completely out of touch with what the public thinks about AI

#228 – Eileen Yam on how we're completely out of touch with what the public thinks about AI

If you work in AI, you probably think it’s going to boost productivity, create wealth, advance science, and improve your life. If you’re a member of the American public, you probably strongly disagree...

20 Marras 20251h 43min

Suosittua kategoriassa Koulutus

rss-murhan-anatomia
psykopodiaa-podcast
rss-narsisti
voi-hyvin-meditaatiot-2
aamukahvilla
rss-niinku-asia-on
rss-liian-kuuma-peruna
adhd-podi
psykologia
kesken
rss-vapaudu-voimaasi
rss-valo-minussa-2
dear-ladies
rss-koira-haudattuna
jari-sarasvuo-podcast
esa-saarinen-filosofia-ja-systeemiajattelu
leveli
rss-duodecim-lehti
rss-luonnollinen-synnytys-podcast
rss-ihana-elamani