How much does a vote matter? (Article)

How much does a vote matter? (Article)

If you care about social impact, is voting important? In this piece, Rob investigates the two key things that determine the impact of your vote:

  1. The chances of your vote changing an election’s outcome.
  2. How much better some candidates are for the world as a whole, compared to others.

He then discusses a couple of the best arguments against voting in important elections, namely:

  1. If an election is competitive, that means other people disagree about which option is better, and you’re at some risk of voting for the worse candidate by mistake.
  2. While voting itself doesn’t take long, knowing enough to accurately pick which candidate is better for the world actually does take substantial effort — effort that could be better allocated elsewhere.

Finally, Rob covers the impact of donating to campaigns or working to "get out the vote," which can be effective ways to generate additional votes for your preferred candidate.

We last released this article in October 2020, but we think it largely still stands up today.

Chapters:

  • Rob's intro (00:00:00)
  • Introduction (00:01:12)
  • What's coming up (00:02:35)
  • The probability of one vote changing an election (00:03:58)
  • How much does it matter who wins? (00:09:29)
  • What if you’re wrong? (00:16:38)
  • Is deciding how to vote too much effort? (00:21:47)
  • How much does it cost to drive one extra vote? (00:25:13)
  • Overall, is it altruistic to vote? (00:29:38)
  • Rob's outro (00:31:19)

Producer: Keiran Harris

Jaksot(325)

#98 – Christian Tarsney on future bias and a possible solution to moral fanaticism

#98 – Christian Tarsney on future bias and a possible solution to moral fanaticism

Imagine that you’re in the hospital for surgery. This kind of procedure is always safe, and always successful — but it can take anywhere from one to ten hours. You can’t be knocked out for the operati...

5 Touko 20212h 38min

#97 – Mike Berkowitz on keeping the US a liberal democratic country

#97 – Mike Berkowitz on keeping the US a liberal democratic country

Donald Trump’s attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election split the Republican party. There were those who went along with it — 147 members of Congress raised objections to the official cert...

20 Huhti 20212h 36min

The ten episodes of this show you should listen to first

The ten episodes of this show you should listen to first

Today we're launching a new podcast feed that might be useful to you and people you know. It's called 'Effective Altruism: An Introduction', and it's a carefully chosen selection of ten episodes of ...

15 Huhti 20213min

#96 – Nina Schick on disinformation and the rise of synthetic media

#96 – Nina Schick on disinformation and the rise of synthetic media

You might have heard fears like this in the last few years: What if Donald Trump was woken up in the middle of the night and shown a fake video — indistinguishable from a real one — in which Kim Jong ...

6 Huhti 20212h

#95 – Kelly Wanser on whether to deliberately intervene in the climate

#95 – Kelly Wanser on whether to deliberately intervene in the climate

How long do you think it’ll be before we’re able to bend the weather to our will? A massive rainmaking program in China, efforts to seed new oases in the Arabian peninsula, or chemically induce snow f...

26 Maalis 20211h 24min

#94 – Ezra Klein on aligning journalism, politics, and what matters most

#94 – Ezra Klein on aligning journalism, politics, and what matters most

How many words in U.S. newspapers have been spilled on tax policy in the past five years? And how many words on CRISPR? Or meat alternatives? Or how AI may soon automate the majority of jobs? When p...

20 Maalis 20211h 45min

#93 – Andy Weber on rendering bioweapons obsolete & ending the new nuclear arms race

#93 – Andy Weber on rendering bioweapons obsolete & ending the new nuclear arms race

COVID-19 has provided a vivid reminder of the power of biological threats. But the threat doesn't come from natural sources alone. Weaponized contagious diseases — which were abandoned by the United S...

12 Maalis 20211h 54min

#92 – Brian Christian on the alignment problem

#92 – Brian Christian on the alignment problem

Brian Christian is a bestselling author with a particular knack for accurately communicating difficult or technical ideas from both mathematics and computer science. Listeners loved our episode abo...

5 Maalis 20212h 55min

Suosittua kategoriassa Koulutus

rss-murhan-anatomia
voi-hyvin-meditaatiot-2
rss-narsisti
adhd-podi
psykopodiaa-podcast
rss-rahamania
rss-uskonto-on-tylsaa
rss-valo-minussa-2
rss-vapaudu-voimaasi
rss-duodecim-lehti
rss-niinku-asia-on
mielipaivakirja
rahapuhetta
aamukahvilla
ilona-rauhala
kesken
dear-ladies
rss-eron-alkemiaa
nakokulmia-rikollisuudesta-irrottautumiseen
rss-arkea-ja-aurinkoa-podcast-espanjasta