150 | Simon DeDeo on How Explanations Work and Why They Sometimes Fail

150 | Simon DeDeo on How Explanations Work and Why They Sometimes Fail

You observe a phenomenon, and come up with an explanation for it. That's true for scientists, but also for literally every person. (Why won't my car start? I bet it's out of gas.) But there are literally an infinite number of possible explanations for every phenomenon we observe. How do we invent ones we think are promising, and then decide between them once invented? Simon DeDeo (in collaboration with Zachary Wojtowicz) has proposed a way to connect explanatory values ("simplicity," "fitting the data," etc) to specific mathematical expressions in Bayesian reasoning. We talk about what makes explanations good, and how they can get out of control, leading to conspiracy theories or general crackpottery, from QAnon to flat earthers.

Support Mindscape on Patreon.

Simon DeDeo received his Ph.D. in astrophysics from Princeton University. He is currently an Assistant Professor in Social and Decision Sciences at Carnegie Mellon University, and External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute.


Jaksot(416)

315 | Branden Fitelson on the Logic and Use of Probability

315 | Branden Fitelson on the Logic and Use of Probability

Every time you see an apple spontaneously break away from a tree, it falls downward. You therefore claim that there is a law of physics: apples fall downward from trees. But how can you really know? A...

19 Touko 20251h 28min

314 | Karen Lloyd on the Deep Underground Biosphere

314 | Karen Lloyd on the Deep Underground Biosphere

There are living creatures dwelling deep below the surface of the Earth, as deep as we are able to drill. These hearty microorganisms are related to more familiar life forms on land and under water, b...

12 Touko 20251h 9min

313 | Eric Topol on the Changing Face of Medicine and Aging

313 | Eric Topol on the Changing Face of Medicine and Aging

Medical science is advancing at an astonishing rate. Today we talk with leading expert Eric Topol about two aspects of this story. First, the use of artificial intelligence in medicine, especially in ...

5 Touko 20251h 12min

AMA | May 2025

AMA | May 2025

Welcome to the May 2025 Ask Me Anything episode of Mindscape! These monthly excursions are funded by Patreon supporters (who are also the ones asking the questions). We take questions asked by Patreon...

28 Huhti 20253h 38min

312 | Thomas Levenson on the Mutual History of Humans and Germs

312 | Thomas Levenson on the Mutual History of Humans and Germs

The germ theory of disease is a crowning achievement of science, up there with modern physics, continental drift, and evolution via natural selection. (Even if there will always be cranky skeptics.) B...

21 Huhti 20251h 31min

311 | Annaka Harris on Whether Consciousness is Fundamental

311 | Annaka Harris on Whether Consciousness is Fundamental

Questions about consciousness range from the precise and empirical -- what neurons fire when I have some particular experience -- to the deeply profound -- does consciousness emerge from matter, or do...

14 Huhti 20251h 10min

AMA | April 2025

AMA | April 2025

Welcome to the April 2025 Ask Me Anything episode of Mindscape! These monthly excursions are funded by Patreon supporters (who are also the ones asking the questions). We take questions asked by Patre...

7 Huhti 20253h 30min

310 | Marc Kamionkowski on Dark Energy and Cosmic Anomalies

310 | Marc Kamionkowski on Dark Energy and Cosmic Anomalies

Cosmologists were, let us be honest, pretty stunned in 1998 when observations revealed that the universe is accelerating. There was an obvious plausible explanation, the cosmological constant proposed...

31 Maalis 20251h 26min

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