Zachary Mazlish on the Political Implications of Inflation and the Impact of Transformative AI

Zachary Mazlish on the Political Implications of Inflation and the Impact of Transformative AI

Zachary Mazlish is an economist at the University of Oxford, and he joins David on Macro Musings to explain some recent and important macroeconomic developments, specifically the inflation linkages to the 2024 presidential election and the macroeconomic implications of transformative AI. David and Zach also discuss transformative AI's impact on asset pricing, optimal monetary policy in world of high growth, the causes of the slowdown in trend productivity, and more.

Transcript for this week's episode.

Zach's Twitter: @ZMazlish

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Related Links:

*Yes, Inflation Made the Median Voter Poorer* by Zachary Mazlish

*Transformative AI, Existential Risk, and Real Interest Rates* by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and Zachary Mazlish

*Decomposing the Great Stagnation: Baumol's Cost Disease vs. "Ideas Are Getting Hard to Find"* by Basil Halperin and Zachary Mazlish

*The Unexpected Compression: Competition at Work in the Low Wage Labor Market* by David Autor, Arin Dube, and Annie McGrew

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:04:03) – Inflation Made the Median Voter Poorer: Comparing Periods of Wage Growth

(00:15:26) – Inflation Made the Median Voter Poorer: The Median Change in the Wage

(00:22:19) – Assessing the Feedback to Zachary's Article

(00:25:05) – The Significance of Transformative AI and its Double-Edged Sword

(00:27:02) – The Impact of Transformative AI on Asset Pricing and its Policy Challenges

(00:38:07) – The Broader Macroeconomic Effects of Rapid Growth

(00:41:05) – Optimal Monetary Policy in a World of High Growth

(00:43:19) – Exploring the Causes of the Productivity Slowdown

(00:49:21) – Outro

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Megan Greene on the UK's Recent Market Turmoil and What it Means for the Future of the Global Economy

Megan Greene on the UK's Recent Market Turmoil and What it Means for the Future of the Global Economy

Megan Greene is a senior fellow at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University and is the global chief economist at Kroll. Megan is also a contributing editor and columnist for the Financial Times and is a returning guest to the podcast. She rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about a recent article she has written titled, *UK Market Turmoil is a Harbinger of Global Events to Come.* David and Megan also discuss the basics of what caused the UK's recent crisis, how persistent inflation continues to impact the global economy, the current outlook for international energy production, and a lot more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Megan's website Megan's Kroll profile Megan's Twitter: @economistmeg David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: *UK Market Turmoil is a Harbinger of Global Events to Come* by Megan Greene *The World is Starting to Hate the Fed* by Edward Luce

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Yesha Yadav on Treasury Market Turmoil and Potential Solutions for Reform

Yesha Yadav on Treasury Market Turmoil and Potential Solutions for Reform

Yesha Yadav is a law professor and associate dean of Vanderbilt Law School. Yesha works on banking and financial regulation, securities regulation, the law of money and payment system, and is a returning guest to the podcast. She rejoins Macro Musings to talk about recent developments in the Treasury market and the prospects for reform. David and Yesha also discuss the future of CBDC in the US, the recent economic crisis in the UK, and a lot more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Yesha's Vanderbilt Law profile: https://law.vanderbilt.edu/bio/yesha-yadav Yesha's Google Scholar archive: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Dn5cmSQAAAAJ&hl=en David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: *The Failed Promise of Treasuries in Financial Regulation* by Yesha Yadav and Pradeep Yadav *The Broken Bond Market* by Yesha Yadav and Jonathan Brogaard *Markets Didn't Oust Truss. The Bank of England Did.* by Narayana Kocherlakota *Treasuries Liquidity Problem Exposes Fed to 'Biggest Nightmare'* by Liz McCormick *Yellen Flags Potential for Buybacks of Treasury Securities* by Christopher Condon *The Squeeze That Has the US Treasury Thinking About Buying Back Bonds* by Alexandra Harris *Hedge Funds Facing Tighter SEC Clearing Rules for Treasuries* by Lydia Beyoud and Alexandra Harris *Geithner-Led Group Faults Fed for Slow Work on Treasuries Market* by Liz McCormick *All-to-All Trading in the U.S. Treasury Market* by the New York Fed staff *Toby Nangle on What We Just Learned From Gilt Market Madness* by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal

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Peter Ganong on the Dynamism and Resiliency of the US Economy

Peter Ganong on the Dynamism and Resiliency of the US Economy

Peter Ganong is an associate professor at the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago. He joins David on Macro Musings to talk about his work on the dynamism and resiliency of the US economy. Peter and David also discuss the income convergence story in the US, how to address increased housing costs, the economic effects of pandemic response measures, and a lot more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Peter's Twitter: @p_ganong Peter's UChicago profile David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: *Why Has Regional Income Convergence in the U.S. Declined?* by Peter Ganong and Daniel Shoag *Why Do Borrowers Default on Mortgages? A New Method for Causal Attribution* by Peter Ganong and Pascal Noel *Liquidity Versus Wealth in Household Debt Obligations: Evidence from Housing Policy in the Great Recession* by Peter Ganong and Pascal Noel *Spending and Job Search Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data* by Peter Ganong, Fiona Greig, Pascal Noel, Daniel Sullivan, and Joseph Vavra *Housing Demand and Remote Work* by John Mondragon and Johannes Wieland *Household Income & Spending* Research by the JPMorgan Chase Institute

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Bill Nelson on How Bank Examiner Preferences are Obstructing Monetary Policy

Bill Nelson on How Bank Examiner Preferences are Obstructing Monetary Policy

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17 Loka 202249min

BONUS: George Selgin on *False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery*

BONUS: George Selgin on *False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery*

George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute and is also a long-time returning guest of Macro Musings. In this bonus segment from the previous conversation, George rejoins the podcast to talk about his new book project on the Great Depression titled, False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery. Specifically, David and George discuss the broad contours of the Great Depression, including its causes as well as the pros and cons of the New Deal solutions that followed. Transcript for the episode can be found here. George's Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George's Cato profile David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: Macro Musings: *Jason Taylor on the Great Depression, World War II, and "The Big Push"* Macro Musings: *Doug Irwin on the History of US Trade Policy* Macro Musings: *Sebastian Edwards on FDR, Gold, and the Great Depression* *American Default: The Untold Story of FDR, the Supreme Court, and the Battle over Gold* by Sebastian Edwards

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Macro Lit Review 2: Highlights from Late 2022 with George Selgin

Macro Lit Review 2: Highlights from Late 2022 with George Selgin

George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute. George is also a frequent guest of the podcast, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings once again to discuss their top three articles from the past few weeks related to macroeconomics and monetary policy. Specifically, David and George talk about Jerome Powell's recent criticism of nominal GDP targeting, Lael Brainard's recent comments regarding FedNow and real-time payments, the debate surrounding the Fed's campaign against inflation, and a lot more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. George's Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George's Cato profile David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: *A Conversation Between Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Peter Goettler* via the Cato Institute *The Return of Inflation Makes Deficits More Dangerous* by Greg Ip *Jerome Powell's Dilemma: What if the Drivers of Inflation Are Here to Stay?* by Nick Timiraos *Primer: What is a Real-time Payments System, and Who Should Operate it?* by Thomas Wade *Facts, Fears, and Functionality of NGDP Level Targeting* by David Beckworth *Anchors Aweigh: The Transition from Commodity Money to Fiat Money in Western Economies* by Angela Redish

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Bill English on the Effectiveness of QE and the Consequences of Fed Losses

Bill English on the Effectiveness of QE and the Consequences of Fed Losses

Bill English is a professor at Yale University, a former senior Fed staffer, and a veteran of the Bank for International Settlements. Bill joins Macro Musings to talk about his time at the Federal Reserve, recent Fed developments, and a paper he co-authored titled, "What If the Federal Reserve Books Losses Because of Its Quantitative Easing?" David and Bill also discuss the Fed's recent low-inflation mandate, the QE effectiveness debate, and why we should and shouldn't be concerned about Fed balance sheet losses. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Bill's Yale profile Bill's Federal Reserve profile David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: *What if the Federal Reserve Books Losses Because of its Quantitative Easing?* by William English and Donald Kohn Macro Musings: *Donald Kohn on Fed Policy from the 1970s to Today* *Think of Powell as Volcker's Wannabe Second Coming* by John Authers

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Andrew Levin on the Costs and Benefits of QE4 and the Future of the Fed's Balance Sheet

Andrew Levin on the Costs and Benefits of QE4 and the Future of the Fed's Balance Sheet

Andrew Levin is a professor of economics at Dartmouth College and a former long-time Fed official. Andy is also a previous guest of Macro Musings and rejoins the podcast to talk about the costs and benefits of the Fed's QE4 program. David and Andy also discuss the Fed's recent record on inflation, QE4's impact on market functioning, the present and future of the Fed's balance sheet, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Andrew's Dartmouth profile Andrew's NBER archive David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: *Quantifying the Costs and Benefits of Quantitative Easing* by Andrew Levin, Brian Lu, and William Nelson *Incorporating Scenario Analysis into the Federal Reserve's Policy Strategy and Communications* by Michael Bordo, Andrew Levin, and Mickey Levy *What if the Federal Reserve Books Losses Because of its Quantitative Easing?* by William English and Donald Kohn

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