GM76: Are We Being Deceived by Economic Data? ft. Paul Donovan

GM76: Are We Being Deceived by Economic Data? ft. Paul Donovan

Alan Dunne welcomes Paul Donovan, Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, to this episode for a thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Together, they explore the structural challenges facing Europe and whether the current wave of pessimism is overstated. Paul highlights how data mismeasurement contributes to the gap between perception and reality while acknowledging the hurdles for productivity growth in Europe. They also consider whether comparisons between Europe’s economic trajectory and Japan’s stagnation are valid and discuss the prospects for U.S. growth under President Trump. The conversation also examines the recent inflation cycle, the potential effects of new U.S. tariffs on inflation, and the implications for Federal Reserve policy.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:28 - Introduction to Paul Donovan

06:02 - The state of the European economy

09:19 - The notion of fairness is changing

13:55 - Can a new economic model emerge?

18:54 - Has Europe become Japanified?

22:21 - Should Europe worry about lagging behind on tech?

29:04 - An economic plague in the UK

34:02 - How can economists address the happiness of the people

38:15 - What have the cost of things stayed high?

44:32 - The potential for supply...

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SI349: Navigating the Age of Uncertainty with Trend Following ft. Mark Rzepczynski

SI349: Navigating the Age of Uncertainty with Trend Following ft. Mark Rzepczynski

In this episode, Niels and Mark Rzepczynski examine a market where the usual relationships have broken down. Bonds offer no shelter, volatility moves without conviction, and political intervention kee...

24 Touko 20251h 6min

GM82: The Surprising Success of the U.S. Economy ft. Elroy Dimson & Kiran Ganesh

GM82: The Surprising Success of the U.S. Economy ft. Elroy Dimson & Kiran Ganesh

America's recent economic performance has been a surprise, as it's managed to outperform many other markets over the last quarter century. We review the insights from the Global Investment Returns Yea...

21 Touko 20251h 3min

SI348: The Quiet Cost of Overfitting ft. Andrew Beer

SI348: The Quiet Cost of Overfitting ft. Andrew Beer

Andrew Beer returns to confront a moment of reckoning for trend following. As managed futures suffer one of their worst periods in decades, he and Niels explore a deeper question: has the strategy evo...

17 Touko 20251h 15min

UGO02: Inequality, Inflation, and the End of Consensus ft. Jim Bianco

UGO02: Inequality, Inflation, and the End of Consensus ft. Jim Bianco

What if the volatility we’re seeing is not a pause in the cycle, but the start of something lasting? In this episode, Cem Karsan sits down with Jim Bianco to unpack the forces reshaping the market and...

13 Touko 20251h 3min

SI347: Stagflation, Storytelling, and the Search for a New Hero ft. Cem Karsan

SI347: Stagflation, Storytelling, and the Search for a New Hero ft. Cem Karsan

Today Cem and Niels dissect a world quietly shifting beneath our feet.As markets hum along, Cem explains why the real story lies beneath the surface: a structural liquidity drain, a creeping stagflati...

10 Touko 20251h 7min

GM81: What If Everything You Believe About Markets Is Wrong? ft. Demetri Kofinas

GM81: What If Everything You Believe About Markets Is Wrong? ft. Demetri Kofinas

What if the biggest risk in markets today isn’t volatility, inflation, or geopolitics - but the stories we believe to be true? In this unfiltered and thought-provoking episode, Demetri Kofinas joins C...

7 Touko 20251h 3min

SI346: Is the Trend Still Your Friend ft. Rob Carver

SI346: Is the Trend Still Your Friend ft. Rob Carver

This episode is all about understanding the nuances of trend-following and how current market dynamics are shaking things up. Together with Rob Carver, we discuss the turbulence that hit financial mar...

3 Touko 20251h 9min

IL38: Our Dollar, Your Problem ft. Kenneth Rogoff

IL38: Our Dollar, Your Problem ft. Kenneth Rogoff

What if the most dangerous thing in the global economy isn’t a shock — but the quiet collapse of the frameworks we still rely on?In this rare, unfiltered conversation, Kenneth Rogoff — Harvard profess...

30 Huhti 20251h 11min

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