NHC Issues Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Report
Timeline of Hurricane Helene (September 24-27, 2024)September 20-22: A Central American Gyre (CAG) develops, bringing heavy rains to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras as it moves slowly northward.September 23, 1200 UTC: The large circulation of the CAG straddles Central America and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Deep convection begins to organize near a mid-level vorticity maximum about 130 nautical miles south of Grand Cayman. The system lacks a well-defined low-level center necessary to be a tropical cyclone.September 23, 1500 UTC: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiates potential tropical cyclone advisories as the system is expected to become a tropical cyclone and bring tropical storm conditions to land areas within the next couple of days.September 24: The system becomes Tropical Storm Helene. It enters the Gulf of America as a category 1 hurricane later in the day and turns northward.September 25: Tropical storm conditions are observed over portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico (including Cancun, Cozumel, and Isla Mujeres) and western Cuba. Helene develops a secondary wind maximum farther from the center.September 26: Helene rapidly intensifies over the very warm Gulf waters while accelerating north-northeastward. Aircraft reconnaissance reports an eye around 0600 UTC, and a clear eye becomes visible on satellite imagery around 1800 UTC.September 26, 1800 UTC: Helene intensifies into a 105-knot major hurricane, located about 150 nautical miles west-southwest of Tampa, Florida.September 27, 0000 UTC: Helene reaches its peak intensity of 120 knots, located about 80 nautical miles south-southwest of the coast of the Florida Big Bend region. Its central pressure is estimated to be around 941 mb.September 27, 0310 UTC: Hurricane Helene, a category 4 hurricane with winds of 120 knots and a central pressure of 939 mb, makes landfall about 10 nautical miles southwest of Perry, Florida. This is the strongest landfalling hurricane in the Florida Big Bend region since reliable records began around 1900.September 27: Helene moves inland, bringing catastrophic storm surge to Florida's Gulf Coast, life-threatening wind gusts far inland across the southeastern United States, and historic rainfall leading to catastrophic flooding and landslides in the southern Appalachians. Numerous tornadoes are produced.September 28, 0600 UTC: Helene's sustained winds drop below gale force.September 28-29: The remnants of Helene continue to produce impacts, including tropical storm force winds and gusts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley as it becomes post-tropical and eventually dissipates.
21 Maalis 18min
Weather is Making Allergy Season Worse
Climate Change and Pollen AllergiesPre-1990s: Allergy seasons and pollen levels are within historical norms.1990s: Research indicates that ragweed pollen monitoring has been taking place at 11 locations in the central US and Canada since this decade as part of a national allergy monitoring network.1990-2018: Research by William Anderegg finds approximately a 21% increase in overall pollen concentrations in North America.Since the Beginning of the 20th Century: The contiguous U.S. has experienced an increase of more than two weeks on average in the frost-free season.Since the 1970s: The frost-free season has expanded by an average of at least 11 days in all nine of the U.S.'s distinct climate regions.1995: The US EPA begins tracking changes in ragweed pollen season length at 11 locations in the central United States and Canada.1995-2015: Analysis of ragweed pollen season data shows a lengthening of the season at 10 of the 11 studied locations, with more pronounced increases at higher latitudes. Winnipeg, Manitoba, sees the largest increase at 25 days.2011: A study estimates the economic impact of medically treating seasonal allergies in the United States to be $3.4 billion annually.2016: A study in Sweden analyzes the economic impact of allergic rhinitis, estimating an impact of about $1.43 billion in Sweden alone due to presenteeism, absenteeism, and medical treatment.2018: A study notes only 85 pollen stations operating in the U.S., highlighting a need for more comprehensive monitoring.2019: The Asthma and Allergy Foundation of America reports that ragweed pollen allergy affects an estimated 15.5 percent of all Americans.2019: An EPA study estimates that between 35,000 and 60,000 asthma-related emergency department visits were linked to pollen, projecting a potential 14% increase by 2090.Early 2020s (anecdotal): Allergists report an increase in patients seeking treatment for seasonal allergies.2021: The CDC begins collecting data on the prevalence of seasonal allergies.April 19, 2023: Samantha Harrington publishes an article in Yale Climate Connections highlighting research by William Anderegg and Brooke Lappe on the impact of climate change on worsening pollen allergies.March 18, 2025: Kasha Patel publishes an article in The Washington Post detailing the "allergy capitals" of the U.S. for the previous year (2024), based on data from the Asthma and Allergy Foundation of America. Wichita, Kansas, is ranked the most challenging city.April 9, 2024: Bridget Balch publishes an article in AAMC News discussing how warmer temperatures and "botanical sexism" are exacerbating seasonal allergies.By 2050 (projected): Some computer models suggest that climate change could significantly increase airborne pollen loads, even in areas that currently have low loads.Ongoing: Climate change continues to cause warmer temperatures, longer frost-free seasons, increased carbon dioxide levels, and altered precipitation patterns, all contributing to longer and more severe pollen seasons and worsening allergy symptoms.
20 Maalis 12min
🍀 St. Patrick's Day Green River Dye Toxic?
The Tradition of Dyeing Rivers Green1. Why do cities like Chicago and Tampa dye their rivers green for St. Patrick's Day? The tradition of dyeing rivers green for St. Patrick's Day is primarily a celebratory gesture rooted in Irish heritage. In Chicago, it began in 1962 when a member of the Chicago Plumbers Union Local 130 accidentally discovered that a dye used to trace leaks turned a section of the river green. This inspired the idea to dye the entire river as a unique way to honor St. Patrick's Day. Tampa, Florida, has a similar tradition that also serves as part of their St. Patrick's Day celebrations. The vibrant green color is meant to evoke the "Emerald Isle" and enhance the festive atmosphere of the holiday.2. Is the green dye used considered environmentally safe? The environmental safety of the green dye has evolved over time. Chicago initially used an oil-based fluorescein dye, which raised environmental concerns. Since 1966, Chicago has switched to a vegetable-based powdered dye called Leprechaun Dust. The city and the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) maintain that this current formula is non-toxic and safe for the river and its wildlife at the concentration used. Similarly, Tampa uses an EPA-certified food-grade dye and states that it has not seen any detrimental effects from the event. However, some environmental groups remain skeptical and advocate for a reevaluation of the practice, citing concerns about altering the natural state of the river and potential long-term impacts.3. How long does the Chicago River stay green? The Chicago River typically remains a vibrant green for only a few hours each year. The dye is intentionally designed to dissipate relatively quickly due to the river's flow and natural processes, usually lasting until the end of the St. Patrick's Day celebrations.4. Has the dyeing of the Chicago River ever caused environmental problems? While the current vegetable-based dye is considered safe by the city and EPA, the original oil-based dye used in the 1960s was a point of environmental concern. There were also instances of "rogue dyeing" where individuals or groups illegally dumped unauthorized green dye into the river, raising concerns about the unknown composition and potential harm. Furthermore, environmental advocates argue that any artificial alteration of a natural waterway has the potential for ecological impacts, even if the immediate effects of the current dye seem minimal.5. Have there been studies on the effects of the green dye on river wildlife? Yes, there have been scientific studies examining the impact of dyeing the Chicago River on fish behavior. A recent study tracked over 80 fish in the river during the 2024 St. Patrick's Day celebrations when the river was dyed green. The researchers found that the tagged fish generally sought shelter in areas with green-tinged water but did not show significant changes in their daily activity patterns. While this specific study did not observe detrimental effects, ongoing monitoring and research are important to fully understand any potential long-term impacts on aquatic life.6. Are there any environmental groups that oppose the tradition of dyeing rivers green? Yes, various environmental groups, such as the Sierra Club Illinois Chapter and Friends of the Chicago River, have voiced their opposition to the tradition of dyeing the Chicago River. Their concerns include the artificial alteration of a natural ecosystem, the potential for negative impacts on aquatic life (even if not immediately apparent), and the message it sends about treating the river as a spectacle rather than a vital natural resource. They advocate for respecting the river's natural state and focusing on broader efforts to clean and protect it.
18 Maalis 30min
Hurricane Hunters Face BIG Challenges Due to Funding Constraints
Questions and Answers on Hurricane Hunter Aircraft OperationsQ1: What is the primary purpose of Hurricane Hunter aircraft operated by NOAA and the Air Force?Hurricane Hunter aircraft from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the United States Air Force fly into tropical cyclones and winter storms to collect critical data. This information is used by the National Weather Service (NWS) to improve forecasts of a storm's track and intensity. These forecasts are vital for informing evacuation efforts and storm preparations, ultimately aiming to protect life and property. NOAA studies have indicated that data from Hurricane Hunters can improve forecast accuracy by at least 10 percent.Q2: How has the demand for Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance missions changed since 2014, and what factors have contributed to this change?The number of Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance missions has increased since 2014 for both tropical cyclone and winter seasons. Tropical cyclone missions saw a rise due to increased storm activity in the Atlantic basin and a greater demand for data from forecasters. Winter season missions experienced a substantial increase, particularly in the Pacific basin, beginning in fiscal year 2020. This surge was primarily driven by the expansion of Hurricane Hunter responsibilities to include reconnaissance of atmospheric rivers on the U.S. West Coast, which can cause extreme precipitation and flooding.Q3: What challenges have NOAA and the Air Force faced in meeting their Hurricane Hunter mission requirements?Both NOAA and the Air Force have encountered challenges in completing Hurricane Hunter mission requirements, leading to an increasing number of missed requirements since 2014. Key challenges include limited aircraft availability, often due to maintenance issues (as seen when all of NOAA's aircraft were grounded during Hurricane Idalia in 2023), and staffing shortages affecting air crews and maintenance personnel. The expansion of winter season responsibilities has also placed a higher operational tempo on the aircraft, limiting time for off-season repairs and contributing to more frequent maintenance problems. Limited backup aircraft options further exacerbate the issue when a primary aircraft is unavailable.Q4: Have NOAA and the Air Force systematically tracked the reasons for missed Hurricane Hunter mission requirements?No, neither NOAA nor the Air Force has systematically tracked the reasons why Hurricane Hunter mission requirements have been missed. NOAA officials stated they didn't previously consider it necessary due to the lower frequency of missed missions, but now recognize the potential benefits. The Air Force historically did not track this data as it wasn't a requirement. While the Air Force began documenting some reasons in fiscal year 2023, comprehensive data to assess trends over time is still limited for both agencies.Q5: What are NOAA's plans for its Hurricane Hunter aircraft fleet, and what challenges does the agency face in implementing these plans?NOAA plans to acquire six new Hurricane Hunter aircraft: two Gulfstream G550 high-altitude jets to replace its aging Gulfstream IV, and four C-130J aircraft to replace its two WP-3D Orions and expand reconnaissance capacity. However, NOAA faces several challenges in implementing these plans, primarily funding-related issues. While significant appropriations have been received, substantial additional funding is needed, particularly for the C-130J acquisition. Budgetary constraints and the timing of congressional appropriations add uncertainty. NOAA has also experienced manufacturing delays with the first G550 jet and faces technical challenges in integrating Doppler radar on the new C-130J aircraft.
18 Maalis 19min
March 14-16 Tornado Outbreak: Stories of Survival
Questions about the Recent Severe Weather Outbreak (March 2025)1. What was the primary cause of the widespread severe weather experienced across several US states in mid-March 2025? The severe weather outbreak, which included tornadoes, wildfires, and dust storms, was primarily caused by two strong low-pressure systems. One tracked across the Plains on Friday, and the other moved through the Deep South on Saturday. These systems drew unseasonably warm and humid air from the Gulf of Mexico, creating atmospheric instability conducive to thunderstorms and tornadoes. Additionally, strong winds and low humidity in some areas, like Oklahoma, contributed to the outbreak of wildfires and dust storms.2. Which states were most severely impacted by the tornadoes, and what was the reported death toll specifically attributed to tornadoes? Missouri appears to have been the state most severely impacted by tornadoes, with at least 12 reported deaths. Mississippi also experienced significant tornado activity, resulting in six deaths. Alabama reported three deaths due to tornadoes. While other states experienced tornadoes as part of the larger storm system, the provided sources highlight Missouri, Mississippi, and Alabama in terms of tornado-related fatalities.3. Beyond tornadoes, what other forms of severe weather caused significant damage and fatalities during this period? Besides tornadoes, the severe weather system brought powerful winds that fueled nearly 150 wildfires in Oklahoma, resulting in at least four deaths and the destruction of approximately 300 structures. In Kansas and Texas, strong winds whipped up dust storms that severely reduced visibility, leading to multiple vehicle pile-ups and a combined total of at least 12 deaths.4. What was the immediate impact on infrastructure and residents in the affected areas? The immediate impact was widespread and devastating. Hundreds of homes, schools, and businesses were destroyed or severely damaged. Over 320,000 people across the affected region experienced power outages, with tens of thousands still without power days later. Residents faced displacement, loss of personal belongings, and in some cases, the complete destruction of their homes, leading to urgent questions about shelter and next steps.5. Can you describe a specific instance of a community or group directly affected by the tornadoes, based on the provided sources? In Villa Ridge, Missouri, an EF-2 tornado partially destroyed a Burger King restaurant and a connected gas station. Thirteen people, including employees and customers who had taken shelter in a bathroom, were trapped inside the damaged building. Fortunately, they were all rescued without injury after the general manager, who was not at the store, insisted to first responders that people were inside. This incident highlights the sudden and localized impact of tornadoes on businesses and the immediate need for rescue efforts.6. How does the recent tornado outbreak compare to the deadliest tornado in recorded history, which also struck Missouri? The recent tornado outbreak, while causing significant damage and loss of life, is dwarfed in scale by the Tri-State Tornado of March 18, 1925. This historic tornado, which touched down in Missouri and tracked across Illinois and Indiana, resulted in 695 deaths and carved a 219-mile path of destruction. The Tri-State Tornado remains the deadliest single tornado ever recorded, with a death toll significantly higher than any subsequent tornado event in the US.
17 Maalis 14min
Northern Italy Floods, Again
Northern Italy Flooding EventKey Topics:The severe weather event affecting Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna on March 14, 2025.The specific cities and regions impacted by heavy rainfall, flooding, and landslides, including Florence, Pisa, Bologna, and Sesto Fiorentino.The immediate consequences of the weather, such as road closures, school shutdowns, evacuations, and the rising water levels of the Arno and Rimaggio rivers.The potential link between such extreme weather events and broader climate change patterns, particularly in Europe.The concept of "climate whiplash" and "climate hazard flips" in the context of European cities experiencing shifts between flooding and drought.The two Italian regions under red alert were Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna. These alerts were issued due to torrential rainfall causing flooding and landslides.Florence saw more than 53mm of rain in just six hours on Friday morning. This was more than double its average March rainfall of 61mm in the past three days.In Sesto Fiorentino, the Rimaggio stream broke its banks and flooded the central streets. This town, located a few kilometers from Florence, experienced a particularly critical situation.In Pisa, flood defenses were being erected along the Arno river. Local authorities had warned that the river had surpassed the first flood-risk level."Climate whiplash" is defined as intensifying floods and droughts. The Euronews report found that almost one in five (20 percent) of the globally studied cities are experiencing this phenomenon.The report found that all European cities analyzed exhibit drying trends over the past 42 years. Examples mentioned include Madrid and London.Scientists at the World Weather Attribution group said that the devastating floods brought by Storm Boris were made worse by climate change. This highlights the link between extreme weather and a warming world.An area of high pressure in the north-east Atlantic has recently blocked the path of low-pressure systems that normally pass to the north-west of the UK, sending them through the Mediterranean instead.Some social and infrastructural vulnerabilities include poverty and poor water and waste systems. These factors can make communities less equipped to handle the impacts of floods and droughts, potentially leading to disease spread and water shortages.According to the Euronews article, WaterAid claims that 90 percent of all climate disasters are driven by too much or too little water. This underscores the central role of water in climate-related crises.
16 Maalis 7min
Is American Society Falling Apart via Social Media Misinformation and Structural Stupidity?
Jonathan Haidt's article in The Atlantic argues that the 2010s marked a turning point in American life, characterized by increasing fragmentation, distrust, and "structural stupidity" within institutions. Drawing a parallel to the biblical story of Babel, Haidt posits that the rise and evolution of social media, particularly the introduction of features like "Like" and "Share" buttons around 2009-2012, have fundamentally altered human interaction and weakened the social bonds, institutions, and shared stories that underpin a functioning democracy. He contends that these platforms, driven by algorithms that prioritize engagement (often through outrage), have amplified extremism, eroded trust in vital institutions, and fostered an environment where truth and reasoned discourse are increasingly difficult to achieve. The article concludes with a warning about the future, especially with the advent of advanced AI disinformation, and proposes several areas for reform, including hardening democratic institutions, reforming social media, and better preparing the next generation for digital citizenship.Main Themes and Important Ideas:1. The "Babel" Metaphor:Haidt uses the story of the Tower of Babel to illustrate the current state of America: "The story of Babel is the best metaphor I have found for what happened to America in the 2010s, and for the fractured country we now inhabit. Something went terribly wrong, very suddenly. We are disoriented, unable to speak the same language or recognize the same truth. We are cut off from one another and from the past."He emphasizes that this fragmentation is not just between political parties but exists within them and across various societal institutions: "Babel is not a story about tribalism; it’s a story about the fragmentation of everything."2. The Role of Social Media's Evolution:Early social media (pre-2009) is portrayed as an extension of existing communication technologies, fostering connection. However, the introduction of "Like" and "Share" buttons and the subsequent algorithmic prioritization of engagement marked a critical shift."Shortly after its “Like” button began to produce data about what best “engaged” its users, Facebook developed algorithms to bring each user the content most likely to generate a “like” or some other interaction, eventually including the “share” as well. Later research showed that posts that trigger emotions––especially anger at out-groups––are the most likely to be shared."This new dynamic incentivized performativity, outrage, and the spread of emotionally charged content, contributing to a "new game" where virality and online fame became goals.A Twitter engineer is quoted regretting the "Retweet" button, stating, "We might have just handed a 4-year-old a loaded weapon."
15 Maalis 41min
Tornado Outbreak: Rare Level 5 “High Risk” for Severe Weather
Timeline of Main Events (March 14-16, 2025)Friday, March 14, 2025:Evening/Overnight:Severe Thunderstorm Watches are in effect from Iowa and Nebraska southward to Kansas and Missouri.Tornado Watches are in effect for a large part of Missouri, Illinois, and Arkansas, extending to the Gulf Coast.Parts of north and west Alabama are under a Level 3 out of 5 risk for severe weather starting late tonight (around 11 PM or later), with a "conditional" threat of intense storms if a "cap" of warmer air doesn't hold.Areas west of this zone in Alabama, including Huntsville and Birmingham, are under a Level 2 risk, and areas further south are under a Level 1 risk. Southeast Alabama is not expected to see severe weather tonight.Storms in west Alabama are expected to develop around 11 PM and move eastward through the overnight hours.The Tallahassee area in Florida could see storms arriving as early as midnight or 1 AM Sunday, with the more likely window from 4 AM to 10 AM.Saturday, March 15, 2025:All Day: A widespread and dangerous severe weather outbreak is expected across the central Gulf Coast states and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley.Morning: Confidence increases about the probability of widespread severe storms in Alabama, particularly from Saturday afternoon until early Sunday morning.Daytime/Afternoon:A tornado outbreak is possible across the central Gulf Coast states and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley.Multiple intense, long-tracked tornadoes (EF-3 or higher) are possible on Saturday.The storms will develop along the Mississippi River and quickly move east from midday to the afternoon.A line of supercells is expected to swing through central and southern Mississippi into northern Alabama, central and east Tennessee, and north Georgia.Cities such as New Orleans, Louisiana, and Birmingham, Alabama, are under a Level 4 out of 5 risk.In Alabama, there could be supercells or individual severe storms producing tornadoes, followed by a squall line moving west to east across the state.Storms could begin to affect Alabama around noon and last into early Sunday morning.The Storm Prediction Center's highest risk level (Level 5 out of 5) impacts 2.7 million people in major cities like Birmingham, Jackson, Tuscaloosa, Hoover, and Hattiesburg.Night: The severe weather threat in Alabama is expected to continue through early Sunday morning.Sunday, March 16, 2025:Early Morning: Storms will be tracking eastward and out of Alabama.Daytime: The storm system will have traversed the entire U.S., with its focus on the East Coast, including the Interstate 95 corridor.Threats on the East Coast: The threat of tornadoes will be confined to the Virginia coast and south into the Carolinas. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main threats from Florida to the Northeast.Morning (Tallahassee): The severe weather threat could continue even after an initial round of storms moves through the Tallahassee area. Much of the eastern Big Bend is under a slight risk of severe storms for after 8 AM Sunday.
14 Maalis 24min
