49. Weaponizing Weather: The Global Security Threat of the Future with Dr. Elizabeth Chalecki

Elizabeth L. Chalecki is an Associate Professor of International Relations and Environmental Sustainability at the University of Nebraska Omaha, a Research Fellow in the Environmental Change and Security Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center, and a Research Chair with Fulbright Canada. Her expertise lies in the areas of climate change and security, international environmental policy, and the intersection of science/technology and International Relations. Dr. Chalecki has authored groundbreaking research on geoengineering and just war, and has published over 25 books, articles, and chapters on diverse topics such as climate change and Arctic security, environmental terrorism, climate change and international law, public perceptions of environmental issues, and water in outer space. She also serves as an environmental security subject matter expert for NATO. Dr. Chalecki holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy at Tufts University, a M.Sc. in Environmental Geography from the University of Toronto, and an M.A. from Boston University.

In our interview with Dr. Chalecki, we explore the broad global security implications of climate change and manipulation; their effects on Army and DoD readiness, operations, and mission requirements; and potential approaches for mitigating and regulating these threats. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our discussion:

• The consequences of climate change will force countries to reconsider their definitions of security. Instead of traditional military force size and strength, the stability of the environment will reflect the security of nations. Importantly, climate change is a security threat interconnected with the actions of other countries.

• Temperature increases and precipitation changes caused by climate change will have incalculable second order effects. Food security, civil unrest, migration, border insecurity, and disease patterns will all be shaped by the changing environment.

• Climate change will alter Army operations. The Army’s focus may shift to humanitarian support and peacekeeping missions in regions destabilized by climate change. Additionally, the emergence of novel diseases in deployment regions could reduce the size of the Army’s recruitment pool due to increased social resistance to vaccinations.

• Humans are looking at geoengineering– specifically solar radiation management (i.e., shielding the Earth from the Sun’s rays) and carbon dioxide sequestration – to fight climate change. However, these solutions are impossible to test without consequence, necessitating their careful development and regulation via international law. Currently, there is no national policy nor international law in place regulating geoengineering. Failed attempts at geoengineering could harm the global ecosystem worse than the climate change it seeks to mitigate, with potentially destabilizing effects.

• As governments fail to address climate change, individuals and subnational groups may be motivated to act in