Mr. Market Wants More Data
U.S. equities were mixed-to-negative heading into Tuesday’s close, as investors remain cautious ahead of Friday’s release of the November jobs report. Chinese authorities seem to have stifled “Zero COVID” protests, as concerns about growth in the world’s second-largest economy persist. Crude oil prices have stabilized today, with the generic front-month futures contract trading around the historically significant $75 per barrel level. Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about recent price action, the energy trade, and why in the world the Netherlands has agreed to basically destroy 3,000 working farms and what impact the move will have on global food markets. We also hear from Real Vision macro analyst Michael Coolbaugh, who makes the bearish case for crude oil heading into 2023. Watch the entire conversation between Michael Coolbaugh and James Helliwell here: https://rvtv.io/3Uc9uHr. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
29 Marras 202236min
It’s a Whole New China Syndrome
Historic protests over the weekend have pushed President Xi Jinping into perhaps the most uncomfortable position of his tenure, as China’s continuing struggle with COVID-19 restrictions weighed on market sentiment ahead of Monday’s open. All three major U.S. equity indexes were down more than 1% heading into the close, while investors sought safety in government bonds. Already skeptical of the recent rally, in his most recent research note Tavi Costa shared ample evidence a recession is imminent. Tavi, a portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to assess the global implications of growing domestic unrest over China’s lockdowns, to explain why we should be paying attention to the U.S. Treasury yield curve, and to identify a potentially highly profitable macro trade for the next two years. We also hear from Victor Shih about the future of China’s relationship with the rest of the world. Watch the full conversation between Victor Shih and Maggie Lake here: rvtv.io/3W0wYBt. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
28 Marras 202236min
Are We Seeing the Fed’s Lag Effects?
Markets held modest gains late Wednesday, as minutes from the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee suggest monetary tightening will continue, though at a less intense pace, and the policy interest rate may even reach a higher terminal level than initially forecast. That’s as more and more indicators point to slowing growth in the U.S. At the same time, data from Europe suggest things may not be as dire as once feared. Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Weston Nakamura to talk about central bankers, markets, and the economy (perhaps a little World Cup, too) in the middle of a holiday-shortened trading week in the U.S. Andreas and Weston assess near-term price action in the broader macro context — and separate the hawks from the doves just ahead of Turkey Day. We also hear from Jamie McDonald about position-sizing, portfolio management, and the importance of process in a complex macro environment. Watch the complete “We Got the Message” episode featuring Jamie McDonald here: https://rvtv.io/3F5TtPj. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
24 Marras 202237min
How Long Can This Rally Last?
All three major U.S. equity indexes were up about 1% heading into Tuesday’s close, rallying on light volume as investors look forward to a long holiday weekend with hope the Federal Reserve will soon ease off the monetary tightening. That’s even with sentiment indicators like the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey showing a base-case expectation for “stagflation.” Maggie Lake welcomes Daily Dirtnap editor Jared Dillian to the Daily Briefing to talk about what key markets are telling us heading into the end of the year and how the Fed is likely to handle recent softer inflation data. And Andy Constan, the CEO of Damped Spring, explains the two ways central bankers can really kill inflation. Watch the full conversation between Andy Constan and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3TXQsEA. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
22 Marras 202236min
It’s the Return of the Safety Trade
It’s a Thanksgiving-abbreviated trading week in the U.S., but there’s no lack of compelling evidence to sift this Monday. Stocks were mixed two hours ahead of the close, but long-duration Treasury yields had sent a decidedly risk-off message on signs the domestic economy is slowing. Crude oil prices reached lows not seen since January, with OPEC denying reports it will discuss production increases when it meets in December. And we’ll have more insight on central bank thinking when minutes from the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting are released on Wednesday. Greg Weldon, the CEO of Weldon Financial, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what a re-assertion of dollar strength means for the market right now. We also hear from Michael Gayed about the implications of falling U.S. Treasury yields in an excerpt from the October 28 Daily Briefing. Watch the full conversation between Michael Gayed and Andreas Steno Larsen here: rvtv.io/3VizvWO. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
21 Marras 202234min
The Next Big Trade - Is China Still Open for Business?
Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar founded macroeconomic consulting firm Sri-Kumar Global Strategies to advise multinational firms and sovereign wealth funds on risk and opportunity around the world. Sri joins Harry Melandri to explain why China’s global ambitions represent a major macro risk and, at the same time, how emerging markets have never had more potential for growth. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
20 Marras 202255min
My Life in 4 Trades - Lifelong Learning Is Todd Edgar’s Key to Success
Todd Edgar was once one of Wall Street’s star proprietary traders. Before he started Atreaus Family in 2019, he worked for some of the biggest houses in investment banking. In this episode of My Life In Four Trades, Todd shares the critical lessons he’s learned over nearly three decades in financial markets, explaining to Maggie Lake how “naïve optimism” helped shape his entrepreneurial mindset and why embracing lifelong learning is the key to success. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
19 Marras 202250min
Be Careful What You Wish For
U.S. equity indexes were mixed heading into the final two hours of the trading week, a fitting close as investors continue to struggle with data that suggest inflation has peaked and a Federal Reserve that, at least in public word, seems as hawkish as ever. “On November 10, 2022, inflation died,” Warren Pies writes in the most recent note from 3Fourteen Research. “And, despite our view that inflation is going to decelerate quickly over the coming year, there are still risks that could resurrect the beast.” Is the U.S. leading the way lower, or will inflation flare again? Warren joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about why bonds are the place to be and equities are at the top end of their range. We also hear from Kokou Agbo-Bloua, the Global Head of Economics at Societe Generale, about the ongoing transition from a lower-for-longer to a higher-for-longer rate environment. Watch the full conversation between Kokou Agbo-Bloua and James Helliwell here: https://rvtv.io/3UPnZSG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
18 Marras 202234min
