Is There Light at the End of the Inflation Tunnel?
As detailed in the just-released minutes of the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, U.S. central bankers are going to tighten faster than they did during their last rate-hiking cycle. And they’ve accelerated plans to shrink the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Still, Jerome Powell and company will be challenged to rein in inflation while keeping both investors and consumers happy. Meanwhile, Darius Dale sees in the January Producer Price Index data some light at the end of the tunnel, as the numbers suggest global supply-chain and inflation pressures may be abating. Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about the big picture, including the question of whether the January stock selloff was merely prologue to a more serious crash later in 2022. Weston Nakamura joins to preview the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting, which kicks off tomorrow in Jakarta, Indonesia. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3uRAu63. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
17 Helmi 202234min
Investors Shrug Off the PPI as Ukraine Tensions Ease
The Producer Price Index, a measure of wholesale prices and a key input for consumer prices, rose 1% in January, doubling the 0.5% consensus forecast. The PPI was up 9.7% year over year, easing from the 13-year-high readings of 9.8% for the previous two months. Increases were registered across the board, but goods prices continue to lead services prices. It’s more fodder for a Federal Reserve poised to start raising interest rates next month. Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin has ordered some troops be pulled back from positions along the Ukrainian border and has committed to further diplomatic talks with the U.S. Equity indexes surged on apparent easing of tensions in Eastern Europe, while crude oil and natural gas prices slid on the news. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to discuss today’s developments. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3gQ2miK Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
16 Helmi 202243min
No Love Lost This Valentine's Day as Markets Brace for War
Equity indexes faded into the close today, as investors continue to weigh prospects for a diplomatic solution to the simmering problem in Eastern Europe. U.S. President Joe Biden issued an ultimatum to Russian President Vladimir Putin over the weekend, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is shuttling between Kyiv and Moscow Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard reiterated his hawkish stance on inflation, noting that it may be necessary to “front-load” interest-rate hikes. But the Bank of Japan remains on the side of easy money and “yield curve control.” This divergence among central banks could have major ramifications for stock prices, particularly high-growth tech names, as Weston Nakamura explains to Real Vision’s Ash Bennington in today’s Daily Briefing. Be sure to watch Weston's YouTube video here: https://rvtv.io/3uJCXj4. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3oPv7Ax. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
15 Helmi 202235min
Inefficiency vs. Risk Premium
Renowned author, professional trader and quantitative analyst Euan Sinclair describes the subtle difference between inefficiency and risk premium in options and markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
14 Helmi 202210min
Why Global Markets are Addicted to the Bank of Japan
Inflation is rampant globally, and the world’s major central banks are all taking decisive measures to tighten policy in their respective ways, with the exception of one major developed market central bank: the Bank of Japan. Weston Nakamura is based in Tokyo, Japan and has been monitoring, analyzing and trading the BOJ throughout Governor Kuroda’s controversial tenure, and explains how the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control policy has enabled the other major central banks and governments from making tough decisions and allowed for them to keep monetary and fiscal policy loose by “exporting low yields.” Weston also warns of a major potential inflection point ahead, as global central banks retreat from policy accommodation, leaving the BOJ the sole source of policy continuity in the QE-era. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
13 Helmi 202241min
Will the Fed Be Forced To Make a Move Before March?
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February read 61.7, down from 67.2 in January, well short of a median estimate of 67, and the lowest print since October 2011 – even lower than April 2020, when the global economy was locked down. “To put it bluntly,” notes Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, “this was not a good report.” And the decline was largely attributable to waning confidence among the investor class, which fears the stock-market implications of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Regular consumers are simply in fear of falling behind because of inflation. An emerging Wall Street consensus now sees seven rate hikes coming down the pike, a process that could result in an inverted yield curve. And an inverted yield curve often means “recession.” Meanwhile, Bitcoin appears to be decoupling from other risk assets, perhaps on the perception that it’s an effective hedge against still-accelerating inflation. Bianco joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about next moves for the Fed amid increasing chatter about an emergency session ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s next regular meeting in March. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3HLyUX8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
12 Helmi 202235min
Pressure on the Fed Rises as the CPI Hits a 40-year High
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that the Consumer Price Index for January 2022 was up 0.6% and 7.5% year over year. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said he’s become "dramatically" more hawkish in light of the hottest inflation in nearly 40 years. Bullard, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, would now like to see a total of 100 basis points of rate hikes by July. In the aftermath of Bullard’s comments, federal funds futures are pricing in a 60% chance of a 50-basis-point hike in March. Rent has gone up nearly 30% in some cities, but the grass isn’t greener for would-be homeowners. U.S. mortgage rates have surged to a two-year high, with the average 30-year fixed rate up to 3.69% from 3.55% last week. Meanwhile, the European Commission has raised its inflation forecast for 2022 to 3.5% from 2.2% due to high energy prices stemming from geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to discuss today’s CPI report and what it means for the Federal Reserve, markets, and your portfolio. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3swruR5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
11 Helmi 202239min
Between "Inflation and Deflation" Lies More Volatility
Japan Machine Tool Orders, the best leading indicator of the global industrial cycle, accelerated in January. And recent data suggest the backlog at Los Angeles Port may begin to ease by summer. At the same time, the coming Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle is a major wild card for investors. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about why, according to his analysis, “deflation” is now equal to “inflation” as the dominant short-term market regime. Was the January sell-off merely a precursor to a larger correction? However the case turns, Fed Chair Jay Powell’s “right-tail hawkishness” means more volatility. Darius shares his thoughts on a murky macro picture and how specific assets are likely to perform under various scenarios. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3HESUe5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
10 Helmi 202234min
