The end of big capex in telecoms: causes and implications
Analysys Mason Podcast27 Helmi 2025

The end of big capex in telecoms: causes and implications

In this episode, Caroline Gabriel, Partner and expert in network and cloud strategies and architecture, engages in a wide-ranging discussion with Rupert Wood, Research Director and expert in network infrastructure, about trends in telecoms capex.

They delve into the reasons behind the recent decline in operator capex worldwide, focusing on 5G and FTTP, and how this decline is connected to the slowing demand for bandwidth coupled with a supply of infrastructure that will be sufficient for the foreseeable future. Rupert shares insights from his strategy report, "The end of big capex: new strategic options for the telecoms industry," which explores industry misconceptions about the relationship between investment and demand. He suggests that the industry is experiencing a crisis of overproduction, with industry players still wedded to productive forces that deliver low returns. However, he argues that new models for operator and vendor investment will emerge from this crisis, tied to newer productive forces.

During the discussion, Rupert also shares insights into Analysys Mason's capex forecasts, which indicate that operator capital intensity will fall until 2030, with no major cyclical rebound in overall network investment in the foreseeable future.

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