Should you trust your gut?
Nudge3 Maalis 2025

Should you trust your gut?

Golf players, investors and CEOs perform better if they take their time. Or do they? Today, Prof. Gerd Gigerenzer reveals why intuition often outperforms complex analysis and how shortcuts can lead to smarter decisions in business, sports, and investing. You’ll learn: Why gut instinct can beat data-driven decisions (feat. insights from Gerd Gigerenzer). How firefighters, CEOs, and handball players make better choices under pressure. The dangers of overthinking—why too much time can worsen decisions (feat. 2004 golf study). Why simple rules predict outcomes better than complex models (feat. Wimbledon & NFL studies). --- Sign up to my newsletter: https://www.nudgepodcast.com/mailing-list Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/phill-agnew-22213187/ Watch Nudge on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@nudgepodcast/ Gerd’s book Smart Management: https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262548014/smart-management/ --- Sources: Baum, J. R., & Wally, S. (2003). Strategic decision speed and firm performance. Strategic Management Journal, 24(11), 1107–1129. Beilock, S. L., Bertenthal, B. I., McCoy, A. M., & Carr, T. H. (2004). Haste does not always make waste: Expertise, direction of attention, and speed versus accuracy in performing sensorimotor skills. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 11(2), 373–379. DeMiguel, V., Garlappi, L., & Uppal, R. (2009). Optimal versus naive diversification: How inefficient is the 1/N portfolio strategy? The Review of Financial Studies, 22(5), 1915–1953. Dörfler, V., & Eden, C. (2017). Becoming a Nobel Laureate: Patterns of a journey to the highest level of expertise. AoM 2017: 77th Annual Meeting of the Academy of Management, Atlanta, GA, August 4-8. Easterbrook, G. (2010). TMQ’s annual bad predictions review. ESPN. Eslam sdt Henry. (2018). Best football trick world cup 2006 Jens Lehmann [Video]. YouTube. https://youtu.be/LRAOEWAbO00 Johnson, J., & Raab, M. (2003). Take the first: Option-generation and resulting choices. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 91(2), 215–229. Klein, G. A. (1999). Sources of power: How people make decisions. MIT Press. Reb, J., Luan, S., & Gigerenzer, G. (2024). Smart management: How simple heuristics help leaders make good decisions in an uncertain world. The MIT Press. Serwe, S., & Frings, C. (2006). Who will win Wimbledon? The recognition heuristic in predicting sports events. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 19(4), 321–332. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.530 West, D. C., Acar, O. A., & Caruana, A. (2020). Choosing among alternative new product development projects: The role of heuristics. Psychology & Marketing, 37(12), 1719–1736. https://doi.org/10.1002/mar.21397

Jaksot(281)

#33: The Psychology of Price | Part One

#33: The Psychology of Price | Part One

Pricing a product isn't easy. We're reliant on out of date models and frameworks that don't reflect the real world. In today's show, with pricing expert Leigh Caldwell, we explain the science behind p...

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#32: 6 discriminatory mistakes most hiring managers make

#32: 6 discriminatory mistakes most hiring managers make

Who should make the final call on a new hire? What should you ask during an interview? Can a job ad exclude good candidates? To answer these tough questions I’m joined by Kate Glazebrook, Co-Founder o...

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#31: SaaS Startups: 8 Hacks To Grow Your Brand

#31: SaaS Startups: 8 Hacks To Grow Your Brand

Marketing at a Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) startup isn’t easy. Usually you’re short on budget, given dozens of responsibilities with only a handful of teammates. But that hasn’t stopped some of the l...

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#30: The science behind great adverts

#30: The science behind great adverts

The best adverts are the ones that make us cry, or laugh, or both! Right? Well not quite. In this episode, Phil Barden, author of the best selling consumer psychology book Decoded, explains the scienc...

18 Touko 202027min

#29: Why first impressions matter

#29: Why first impressions matter

Did you know judges and doctors make better decisions when given less time? Turns out our first impressions are seriously accurate. Today I’m joined by Phil Barden, MD at Decode and best selling autho...

4 Touko 202015min

#28: Coronavirus: How to change the behavior of a nation

#28: Coronavirus: How to change the behavior of a nation

The last few months have shown that unprecedented changes to human behavior and habits is possible. But how was it achieved? Some countries chose a hard, enforced approach, while some were more lenien...

20 Huhti 202019min

#27: Understanding customers during times of uncertainty

#27: Understanding customers during times of uncertainty

Due to Covid-19, consumers across the globe have different priorities. Their needs, concerns and fears have changed over night. So, how should marketers continue their work without sounding out of tou...

6 Huhti 202022min

#26: Why do 80% of product launches fail?

#26: Why do 80% of product launches fail?

According to HBR, 80% of new product launches fail. But why? Could it be because the frameworks and models marketers implement aren't fit for purpose? Or perhaps because our understanding of what work...

23 Maalis 202024min

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