The Usual Suspects

Episode #317: Derek Mitchell’s engagement with Myanmar began unexpectedly in the 1990s when he attended a human rights event featuring Aung San Suu Kyi. Years later, he became the first U.S. Special Representative and later Ambassador to Myanmar, playing a crucial role in shaping U.S. policy toward the country.

Under the Obama administration, the U.S. reassessed its approach, transitioning from sanctions to diplomatic engagement. Mitchell was tasked with determining whether Myanmar’s new government, led by Thein Sein, was genuinely committed to reform. While political prisoners were released and civil society restrictions eased, skepticism remained, especially as the military, under Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing, retained significant power.

Mitchell championed an action-for-action approach, incrementally easing sanctions in response to reforms. While some criticized this as premature, he defended engagement, arguing, “We have to recognize that Myanmar is a country, not a cause.” He believed isolating Myanmar would only deepen military control while economic and political incentives could encourage democratic progress.

The 2015 elections marked a milestone as Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won by a landslide. However, ethnic minorities remained wary, and military control persisted under the 2008 Constitution. Then the Rohingya crisis of 2017 shattered hopes of democratic transition, exposing the military’s unchecked power. “I realized that was a ticking time bomb, and that it could go off at any time,” Mitchell recalls.

The 2021 coup confirmed his fears, revealing how fragile Myanmar’s democratic reforms had been. Post-coup, Myanmar entered a period of profound instability, with mass resistance challenging military rule. Mitchell stresses that external pressure remains crucial, stating, “There should be absolute, airtight pressure, not just from the United States, but from the frontline states to this regime, to say, ‘this is unacceptable.’”