Instead of Treasuries, Investors Are Buying Foreign Stocks - Ep 1017

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ Surrendered Rest of Post-Election Gains in One Day As I thought, it didn't take long for the markets to surrender all of the post-election gains.  The Dow Jones today was down 602 points, so we've already lost it. It took one day.  On my podcast on Friday I said that we would surrender the remainder of the gains this week and we did it in the first day of the week.  The NASDAQ actually had an even bigger decline; down over 200 points - 206.03 to be exact -down 2.78%. The Russell 2000 was also down 1.98% - just over 30 points - just shy of 2%. The S&P 500 was almost down 2% - 1.97% - 54.79 points . NASDAQ: Usual Suspects The usual suspects, of course, having some of the big declines.  Apple computer came out with worse than expected earnings last week- down another 5.45% today - down 194.  It is now below 250 - This is a new low for Apple.  A lot of the other computer stocks got beat up today: NVIDIA down 7.7%, Broadcom down 6.5&, so the entire tech sector really got beaten up. Of course, Swiss National Bank was a big loser; they are one of the largest investors in U.S. Technology stocks.  I did read an article, though, that said that they trimmed their portfolios rather significantly before the October decline, so the Swiss National Bank did not quite take it on the chin as badly as might otherwise have been the case. But, potentially, the news that the Swiss Central Bank was paring back its portfolio could be part of the negative news that is currently weighing down the market. $15 Billion of G.E. Shareholder Wealth up in Smoke Looking at stocks like G.E. - have been talking about G.E. on this podcast for quite some time. It is down again another 7% today, closing below $8 - $7.99 - the low price on the day was $7.72.  This is a perfect example of what happens when the buyback chickens come home to roost.  General Electric was buying back a lot of stock when money was cheap.  The company is loaded up with debt - $45 - 50 billion of debt.  They also have $20 billion + of underfunded pension liabilities which I think are going to be more under funded when the market goes down.  When money was cheap, yes, it was easy to borrow money and buy back stock; the price of the stock was going up. Look at 2016 alone. I think that was the biggest year of buy backs, although they have been buying back every year, but in 2016, G.E. bought back about $20 billion worth of stock, and the stock was around $30. It is now under $8.  The stock is down 75%. That means if they bought $20 billion worth of stock, that stock now has a market value of just $5 billion. $15 billion of shareholder wealth up in smoke! Our Sponsors: * Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

13 Marras 201839min

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ Dead Cat Bounce Flattens Out The Dow Jones was down a little over 200 today, closing back below 26,000. NASDAQ composite down 124 - that's a bigger percentage decline, 1.7%, approximately.  The Composite is being led lower by the tech stocks, particularly the FANG stocks once again taking a bite out of the market.  The markets, though, were positive on the week, thanks to that huge relief rally that took place on Wednesday following the results of the midterm elections on Tuesday. But as I said on my Wednesday podcast, I thought that relief rally was  just another dead cat bounce, that the fundamentals and the technicals still looked horrible for the U.S. stock market. I expected that rally to reverse, and of course that process had already begun Thursday and Friday.  I think it will continue next week and I think the rest of those gains will be surrendered. Higher than Expected PPI Sparked Sell-Off The catalyst for today's selloff was a much hotter than expected Producer Price Index number. The PPI was up .6% in 1 month, which is a big gain.  In fact this is the biggest jump in the PPI in 6 years. On a year-over-year basis, producer prices are up 2.8%.  The market was looking for an increase half that size: .3%, Even year-over-year, when you strip out food and energy we were still up 2.6%, which is considerably above the 2% level that the Fed is looking at. Of course, the Fed is looking at consumer prices, not producer prices, but of course, nobody can consume what is not produced.  These are really wholesale prices and of course they are going to get passed on to the consumer, so consumer prices are headed higher. The Markets Don't Get It But, again, the markets don't get it.  Gold dropped the minute this number came out, gold dumped about $10. It was already down on the day, and then it sold off and never recovered. On the other hand, bonds were relatively stable when the number came out. Maybe rates ticked up just a smidgen, but actually bonds rallied on the day.  Now maybe the weak stock market had a little bit to do with it, but the irony of it is that you get these numbers that show much more than expected inflation, and what do investors do?  They sell gold and they buy U.S. treasuries. Now, that is the worse thing to do if there's more inflation. Gold is an inflation hedge. So, if inflation is picking up, you would want to own gold to protect yourself from inflation.  On the other hand, the one asset that suffers the most, where the most value is eroded away because of inflation is a bond. A bond is specifically payments of cash in the future, and the more inflation we have, the less that future cash is worth. Our Sponsors: * Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Marras 201838min

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ Relief Rally Post-Midterms The elections are over and the Blue Wave was averted and the Dow Jones rose 545 points today to celebrate that fact and the NASDAQ was up 194 points, 2.64%; Russell 2000 up 26 points, about 1.67% .  Now you may be wondering why there was such a big rise in the stock market based on an outcome that was pretty much expected.  The Republicans lost the House of Representatives, and that was something that was widely anticipated by the markets.  But the loss wasn't that big; they lost 26 seats.  I think 23 was the number that the Democrats had to pick up.  But I think there was some concern that the Republicans may have lost the Senate - instead they actually picked up, I think 3 seats as of now, in the Senate - increasing their margin. This is only the third time in 100 years where that's happened, where you've had the incumbent party lose House seats but gain Senate seats. Obama's Midterm House Loss: 63 Seats But it is amazing that the press was trying to hold this out as some kind of repudiation of his policies: "You lost the House of Representatives".  Big deal!  Obama lost the house of Representatives during his first midterms in 2010.  That was one of the biggest disasters for an incumbent since Roosevelt. Obama lost 63 house seats. Not 26 - remember the Tea Party?  That was all 2010.  Trump did so much better than Obama.  In fact, the average loss for a midterm in the House is 37 seats.  Trump's loss of 26 was much better than average, but you wouldn't know that from listening to the Media.  But most impressive was the 3 seats gained in the Senate.  Barack Obama lost 6 seats during his first midterm elections. That's a 9-seat difference between what Trump was able to accomplish and Obama's accomplishment. Economy-Stimulating Tax Cuts Less Likely I think the reason that the dollar was weaker is the narrative is that since the Republicans no longer have control of the House of Representatives that it is less likely that we will get more tax cuts - at least the tax cuts that would be stimulative to the economy. Our Sponsors: * Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

8 Marras 201836min

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ An Advanced Auction on the Sale of Stolen Goods Tomorrow is Election Day, or as H.L. Mencken once described the process, "An advanced auction on the sale of stolen goods".  My wife has been bugging me for some time to urge people who listen to my podcast to go out and vote on Election Day. I think she's prepared to blame me if there are any close races, either for the House, Senate or even for Governor that end up going to the Democrats - if I do not urge my listeners to vote against that wave, somehow it will be my fault. So I urge all of the people who listen to my podcasts to actually go out and vote this Tuesday on Election Day. Lesser of Two Evils In most cases, our votes are not even going to matter. In fact in most cases it is a matter of voting between the lesser of two evils. Even though the lesser of two evils is still evil, it is "lesser", and when it comes to evil, I guess lesser is better. In some cases there are actually some good candidates who are running. Sometimes, however, when good candidates actually get elected and get into the cesspool that is Washington, D.C., a lot of the values that led them into politics go out the window if they want to stay there. You  can have good intentions when you get to Washington, you can be principled, and you can say, "I'm going there to make the country a better place" but ultimately once you get there, everything changes. Politics Ahead of Principle In fact, when it comes to elections, and politics, the worst candidate usually wins.  If you are a candidate or an elected official, and you are making decisions that are economically sound, and that are in the best interest of the nation or your constituency, and if your opponent is making decisions based on politics, which are likely to result in a larger number of votes, Which decisions are likely to land me money from special interests?  If you're campaigning on principle, and your opponent is a practical politician, who's going to win? Even if you win a few elections, you're eventually going to lose. And the politicians who are i office the longest, are most successful at putting politics ahead of principle. Our Sponsors: * Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

5 Marras 201839min

Rate and Review This Podcast on iTunes https://www.branddrivendigital.com/how-to-rate-and-review-a-podcast-in-itunes/ Futures Rallied after Drop on Apple News I want to get to the nonfarm payroll number. This is the big number, and, maybe, because the initial number was good, the market rallied. Although, I think the real reason that the market rallied in the morning is because we had a big rally in Asia last night. There were some rumors that there would be some type of trade deal between China and the United States, and when that rumor came out, everybody bid up these Asian stocks.  So the U.S. stock market, U.S. futures got bid up.  So initially U.S. futures were way down on the Apple news, but then, when this rumors came out about a trade deal, then the markets rallied. Hopes for Trade Deal with China Part of the reason that people wanted to believe that there might be a trade deal is because everybody knows the election is coming up on Tuesday, and maybe the President is looking to do something between now and then in order to: a) make the market rally, but b) be able to claim victory.  Like" aha! another deal like the USMCA - I got rid of NAFTA, and we have this new deal which is basically the same deal we had before, just with a different name, but he's able to pretend that he kept some kind of promise and now we've got a great deal,  Whereas the old NAFTA was the worse deal in the history of deals, the one that he's got, which is virtually identical, is the best deal in the history of deals. No Deal I thought maybe he would do something similar to that with China.  Come up with some ridiculous agreement that basically does nothing, then talk about how great it is… but apparently, not. Maybe they can still do that on Monday if they really want to wait to the last minute and come up with some kind of bogus deal… But people believe the rumors, but then this morning Larry Kudlow was on CNBC early in the morning before the open basically shooting that rumor down, saying there was no deal. Our Sponsors: * Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

3 Marras 201834min

Rate and Review This Podcast on iTunes https://www.branddrivendigital.com/how-to-rate-and-review-a-podcast-in-itunes/ The Bulls Had No Fear Today may be Halloween, but the Bulls had no fear. The U.S. stock markets closed higher today for the second consecutive day - the first time for the month of October. A lot of traders are probably happy that the month of October is over.  Despite the back to back rally, this is still the biggest decline in a month for NASDAQ since 2008. The Market Gave Back Gains Before Close In fact, the rally off of yesterday's lows, I think was better than 1100 points. We had this huge gain, and even though today, the Dow was up better than 200 points (241 points), it was up about 450 points going into the last hours. So we did give back a couple of hundred points of that gain, which, to me, looked pretty weak. The NASDAQ had a 2% higher close; it was up 144 points.  But you look at the Russell 2000 - much smaller gain there. That index up just a third of 1%. The Dow transports, they were barely positive. Not even 2 tenths of 1 percent - a 15 point rise in the Dow Transports. Bear Market Correction Nonetheless, all the Bulls were out in force on the financial networks claiming that the correction is over.  Everybody was confident that the lows are in; that this big back to back rally is proof that you'd better buy now, otherwise you're going to miss the rally, and this is a typical correction, and now it has run its course. You know what?  If this really was the "end of the correction", most likely, there wouldn't be so many people so confident that it was over.  You'd have a lot more fear, especially on a Halloween.  The fact that there is no fear, to me, shows that it is more likely that this is not the end of the correction but the beginning of the bear market.  And that this rally is the correction. In bull markets, the market going down is a correction, because the trend is still positive. In a bear market, it's the opposite: the rallies are the correction. Our Sponsors: * Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

1 Marras 201840min

Rate and Review This Podcast on iTunes Dow Swings More Than 900 Points Well we didn't have a Black Monday today, but we did have a pretty big selloff, especially if you measure the decline from the early morning pop to the late afternoon drop.  I think it was better than a 900 point selloff.  Earlier this morning the Dow Jones was up about 350 points, and I think halfway through the final hour, we were down as much as 560 points.  Now, we managed to recoup a good chunk of those late day losses in the final half hour, with the Dow down just 245 points. Just over 1%. The NASDAQ trimmed its loss to 116 points - 1.63%.  Of course, all the analysts are focusing on the fact that we didn't close on the lows!  "Hey, it's strong; look, we had a huge rally, impressive rally off the lows!" A Downside Reversal There was nothing impressive about that rally. This actually was a downside reversal. Remember we were all talking last week about the upside reversal that wasn't?  When the market was way down, and then it only closed a little bit down? That's not a reversal. Today was a reversal.  We were way up, and we closed way down. That is a real downside reversal, and that's far more significant than the meaningless, fictitious reversal that we had last week. Warning Signs Ignored Look at some of these individual stocks: Boeing, last week, which was one of the only Dow stocks that actually had a good day - remember it had better than expected earnings, and Boeing went up?  It was down almost over 7% today - Boeing getting killed.  IBM, though, a much bigger deal: down 4%.  A new 52-week low - multi-year low. This should have been a warning sign right out of the gate. It's kind of amazing that people ignored the news that came out over the weekend on IBM and they bought the market anyway. Red Hat Hail Mary IBM announced that it was buying a company called, Red Hat, and it's an all cash deal.  They are way over-paying for this company. Now IBM is the poster child for stock buybacks. And the fact that they are throwing this Hail Mary by over-paying for this company really shows you that time is running out. Our Sponsors: * Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

30 Loka 201843min

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ Look Carefully at the Price Index The GDP number came out yesterday; 3/5% did slightly beat the consensus of 3.3%, but remember, for a while the Atlanta Fed was looking for a print in the 4's.  But the New York Fed was at 2.2%, so the print was much higher than what the  New York Fed was looking for.  But if you look at the internals, the biggest reason that we got 3.5% was because of the price index - the "deflator". Last quarter, when we had 4.2%, the government said that prices rose at an annualized rate of 3%. But in Q3, they said that prices only rose at an annualized rate of 1.7%. Calling B.S. on that Number Now I call B.S. on that number. I don't think we had that significant a slowdown in the annualized rate of inflation between the second quarter of the year and the third quarter of the year. If the 3% inflation rate had held steady, then Q2 GDP would have been just 2.2%. So, obviously not nearly as good a headline as 3.5%.  We'll see if they revise this thing down after the election.  Obviously the Republicans can still campaign on 3.5% even if it turns out that 3.5% was an over-estimate. Largest Trade Deficit in History I think new data is going to come out - particularly on trade.  Donald Trump is out there again bragging about how we're winning the trade war.  I talked about that.  That was the topic of my last podcast because we just printed the worse Merchandise Trade Deficit on a monthly basis in U.S. history. Trade Deficit Amounted to the Largest Subtraction from GDP in 33 Years The trade deficit was so large in the third quarter that it subtracted 1.78 percentage points from the GDP number. That is the largest subtraction from GDP that we have had from trade during a quarter in 33 years.  What happens, when you calculate GDP, you take government spending, you take consumer spending and business spending and then you add in your trade surplus or you subtract out your trade deficit. Now, since we never have a trade surplus, trade is always a net subtraction from the GDP. Our Sponsors: * Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

27 Loka 201837min