Seema Shah on How to Invest Through Policy Chaos

Investors have been bracing for, and selling ahead of April 2nd, dubbed "Liberation Day", by The White House, when hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs are set to be imposed on Canada, Mexico and China. That has driven consumer and investor sentiment down to multi-year lows as we ready ourselves for more inflation and profit pressure. Meanwhile, the rise of a new coalition of autocracies called the CRINK's has been very busy doing business with one another in Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, and they are doing it without the Dollar. What a declining greenback means for the strength of the U.S. economy as it enters a new era of protectionism. LINKS for show notes: https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/other-areas/office-of-technology-evaluation-ote/section-232-investigations https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/protectionism.asp https://globaltradealert.org/ https://www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-in-the-markets-this-week-11704419 https://www.investopedia.com/investors-are-gripped-by-fear-and-distrust-but-hold-onto-favorite-stocks-11703339 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnG2EvqRKbA Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

31 Maalis 202515min

Stocks rallied last week following dovish comments and forecasts from the Federal Reserve, but Chair Powell said inflation may be 'transitory', which brought back nasty flashbacks from 2021. Investors are as bearish as ever, but retail investors have been buying the dip on our favorite stocks that are way off their recent highs. Is our timing terrible, or have we decided that the market has bottomed and the tariffs that go into effect next week will just be a minor adjustment? Plus, what the SKEW Index is telling us, and what to expect in the stock market and the economy this week. LINKS FOR SHOW NOTES: https://www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-in-the-markets-this-week-11700527 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/skew-index.asp https://www.cboe.com/us/indices/dashboard/skew/ https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/four-reasons-not-to-panic-and-sell-right-now/ https://www.investopedia.com/dot-plot-spotlight-fed-sees-interest-rate-cuts-coming-11699946 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

24 Maalis 202514min

The S&P 500 fell into a correction last week as sentiment soured to multi-year lows amid tariff and economic policy uncertainty. Don't look now, but credit spreads are widening, pushing the Fed into the caution zone ahead of this week's pivotal meeting on interest rates. Plus, six ways to protect your portfolio if you can't sleep at night, and believe it or not, a big IPO is heading our way. Links for show notes:  https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/files/IPO-Statistics.pdf https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2003292/000162828025012824/klarnagroupplcf-1.htm https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html https://www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-in-the-markets-this-week-11696253 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/creditspread.asp Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

17 Maalis 202516min

Another week of selling as the stock market suffers its worst week since early September sending the Nasdaq into correction territory and triggering the very rare and very dangerous Titanic Syndrome. Plus, the headline numbers and the Fed Chair both say the economy is in a good place, but that depends where you live inside of it. We break down the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly inside the economy today, and explain why 'stagflation' is back in the conversation. LINKS FOR SHOW NOTES https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stagflation.asp https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow https://www.investopedia.com/fed-chair-powell-confirms-wait-and-see-approach-to-rate-cuts-11693204 https://www.investopedia.com/job-market-bounced-back-in-february-11692802 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hindenburgomen.asp Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

10 Maalis 202513min

February was a short and brutal month across the capital markets as the momentum trade into Big Tech and A.I. stocks reversed, leaving a pile-up of major losses across investors' favorite stocks. The White House dropped a new executive order to build a 'Strategic Crypto Reserve', breathing some bullishness back into the beleaguered crypto patch, and Wall Street has dusted off an old, but risky strategy called 'Portable Alpha', to find the next moonshot stocks. LINKS FOR SHOW NOTES: https://www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-in-the-markets-this-week-11687706 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/portablealpha.asp https://www.investopedia.com/trump-says-canada-mexico-tariffs-will-take-effect-next-week-china-rate-to-double-11687476 https://www.economy.com/economicview/analysis Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

3 Maalis 202514min

A swift drop in investor and consumer sentiment rattled the ‘Immaculate Rotation’ from growth to value stocks, sending the stock market off of record highs. But that hasn’t stopped retail traders from rushing back into the stock market at levels approaching 2021 highs in search of dips across mega cap tech, A.I. and consumer discretionary stocks. Is our timing as bad as it was during Roaring Kitty’s heydays? Plus, Warren Buffett’s annual shareholder letter dropped Saturday with its usual dose of wisdom and humility. But it’s hard to be humble when your holding companies generated $47 billion in operating profit last year, and you are sitting on $343 billion in cash. https://www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-in-the-markets-this-week-11683487 https://www.investopedia.com/berkshire-hathaway-earnings-q4-fy24-warren-buffett-11684624 https://www.investopedia.com/featured/original/investopedia-explains https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/research/think-big-blog/ https://www.vandaresearch.com/news/ https://berkshirehathaway.com/2024ar/2024ar.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

24 Helmi 202513min

Stocks snapped a two-week, battling through tariff and inflation headlines, to come within a fraction of all-time highs. What's driving the market higher now, what's different about today's rally, and why are global stocks spiking in the age of American Exceptionalism? Plus, welcome to the age of Electricity as demand to power the data centers and robotics revolution is set to soar to new heights, bringing power stocks along with it. And, the most important words being spoken on earnings conference calls tell us a lot about the precarious mental state of corporate America. One of the most important is in Latin. LINKS FOR SHOW NOTES https://www.iea.org/news/growth-in-global-electricity-demand-is-set-to-accelerate-in-the-coming-years-as-power-hungry-sectors-expand https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-earningsratio.asp https://www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-in-the-markets-this-week-11679263 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/operatingearnings.asp https://www.tker.co/ https://bilello.blog/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

17 Helmi 202513min