What Nate Silver's learned about forecasting elections

What Nate Silver's learned about forecasting elections

This close to an election, who do I want to hear from? Nate Silver, of course. I sat down with the FiveThirtyEight founder and math wizard to talk about how he builds his forecasting models, what they’re saying about 2018, how big the Democrats’ structural disadvantage in the House and Senate really is, whether there's a purpose to predicting election outcomes, which campaign reporters he reads, and whether Trump is the favorite for 2020. Silver and I also share the experience of building journalism outlets trying to do things a bit differently over the past five years, so we discuss what he’s learned along the way, what he wishes he knew at the beginning, and how he hires. Silver brings unusual clarity and rigor to the topics he focuses on, and right now, given the speed and intensity of the elections news cycle, a bit of rigor is a welcome thing. Enjoy! Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman Bad Blood by John Carreyrou Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Jaksot(765)

The end of world order as we know it

The end of world order as we know it

Venezuela. Greenland. Iran. Things have been moving so quickly that we weren't even at war with Iran when we recorded this episode of The Gray Area with Sean Illing. It’s only March, but it’s been a ...

13 Maalis 35min

Alone in a cage with cocaine

Alone in a cage with cocaine

Addiction is one of those words that seems obvious until you try to explain it. We tend to fall back on two simple stories. Either addiction is a moral failure or it’s a brain disease that robs people...

9 Maalis 48min

Winging it in Iran

Winging it in Iran

What the hell just happened in Iran? The US launched an attack last weekend, and within hours, the explanations were already shifting. Is this regime change? Will it be a few days? A few months? Seve...

6 Maalis 37min

Of course you're anxious

Of course you're anxious

We use the word “anxiety” to describe stress, dread, worry, panic, even vibes. Which just goes to show: We really don’t know what anxiety is, or where it comes from, or what we’re supposed to do with ...

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Gen Z men have baby fever

Gen Z men have baby fever

A lot of Gen Z men sound surprisingly excited about fatherhood. A lot of Gen Z women…do not.  And that divide — and the national handwringing about it — says a lot about the changing status of men an...

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Why mindfulness got weird

Why mindfulness got weird

Mindfulness is everywhere now, which is kind of weird. What started as a countercultural practice has become a productivity hack and a billion-dollar app ecosystem. On one level, it’s great that more...

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You’re right to bear arms

You’re right to bear arms

Sean talks to Atlantic writer Tyler Austin Harper about the killing of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis, and why liberals are missing the point about American gun culture and the right to bear arms.  Beyon...

20 Helmi 39min

Happy news from Sean 

Happy news from Sean 

The Gray Area with Sean Illing is now twice a week! Look for new episodes every Monday and Friday, here in your ears and at Youtube.com/vox for your eyes.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit p...

19 Helmi 1min

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