SI73: How too much experience can work against your investments
On today’s show, we discuss when having lots of experience can sometimes work against you, why hard and fast rules can be better than making discretionary decisions, the importance of trading in appropriate position sizes, the amount of drawdown that will likely cause you to deviate from your system, the unpopularity of Trend Following strategies, creating an adaptive portfolio that can respond to market conditions, and why Trend Following should play a considerable part in your portfolio. Questions we answer this week include: Should you use Trend Filters to confirm your entry signals? Is the 60/40 portfolio usually less volatile than a typical ‘perfect’ Trend Following portfolio? Do you recommend adding mean-reversion strategies to your Trend Following systems? How do you define short, medium and long-term?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:11 – Macro recap from Niels02:41 – Weekly review of performance14:14 – Top Tweets55:44 – Mike; Questions 1: Is Trend Following a Dynamic Call Replication strategy?01:00:39 – Seth; Question 2: Do you use Trend Filters to confirm the entry signal?01:04:10 – Michael; Question 3: Is the daily volatility of a 60/40 portfolio less than that of the ‘perfect’ Trend Following portfolio?01:08:12 – Brian; Listener comment regarding the best way to explain why Trend Following should play a considerable part in all portfolios.01:14:33 – Dave; Question 4: When using multiple lookback periods, should risk per trade always stay the same?01:16:02 – Yohan;...
3 Helmi 20201h 37min
SI72: Crisis and how CTAs provide protection during stock market declines
Today, we discuss how CTAs provide Investors with protection during stock market declines, how the term Crisis Alpha may be linked to reduced allocations to CTAs, the psychology behind managers chasing performance, worthwhile allocation percentages to Trend Following, short-term vs long-term CTA strategies, Trend Following as the perfect portfolio, and Diversification as a way to reduce risk. Questions answered this week include: What are some of the pros and cons of CFD trading, and do you have any tips for building a portfolio of CFDs? Should instruments that rarely make money be included in backtests, and how do you measure this without curve-fitting data?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:25 – Macro recap from Niels02:41 – Weekly review of performance18:39 – Top Tweets54:51 – Andy (via TTU VoiceMail); Questions 1/2: What are some pros & cons of CFD trading? Do you have any tips for building a CFD portfolio?01:02:56 – James; Question 3: Should instruments that rarely ever make money, be included in backtests, and how do you measure this without curve-fitting data?01:14:22 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a...
26 Tammi 20201h 18min
SI71: The "quant winter" and the reliability of fundamental analysis
This week, we discuss the reliability of Fundamental Analysis sell rules versus Trend Following sell rules, the so-called ‘Quant winter’ that systematic funds are supposedly in, whether there is a clear definition of Value Investing, the ability of CTAs to offer Investors exposure to less popular markets, the differences between Trend Following and Technical Analysis, and how much of past performance can be considered as a reliable indicator for the future. Questions we cover include: Do you have to be a coder, or hire one, to be a successful Trend Follower? What do you do when you have more signals than available capital? When adding new securities to your Trading Universe, do you resize current positions to accommodate? Is a stock in motion, more likely to stay in motion?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:47 – Macro recap from Niels04:19 – Weekly review of performance18:39 – Top Tweets55:34 – Keith; Questions 1/2: What is the name of Jerry’s bird? What do you do when you have more signals than capital available? When adding new markets to a system, do you resize existing trades to accommodate?01:03:10 – Neil; Question 3: If a stock is moving or flat, is it likely to continue in the same form?01:09:11 – Mike; Question 4: What are the differences between Trend Followers & Technical Analysts?01:13:02 – Andrew; Question 5: Is long-only Trading on Forex recommended?01:16:46 – George; Question 6: Do you have to be a coder (or hire one), to be a successful Trend Follower?01:27:37 – Benchmark
20 Tammi 20201h 30min
SI70: How to design and backtest your system ft. Andreas Clenow (Part 2)
Today we continue our interview with Andreas Clenow, where we cover topics such as backtesting & system design, whether we see any growth in the CTA industry, long-term vs short-term Investing, and how to go about raising initial AUM. Questions include: How important are drawdowns when analysing performance? Is Crisis Alpha an appropriate label for CTAs today? How do you choose parameters for your Trading Models?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:54 – Niels; Question One: How does one go about choosing parameters for their Trading models? Question Two: Do you stick with your model, or do you look to recalibrate it over time?07:37 – Jerry; Question Two: Have you noticed that longer-term systems have always produced better results than shorter-term, even though we may think otherwise? How important are drawdowns when analysing performance?13:48 – Moritz; Question One: Would you still go out and start a Trend Following fund today? If so, how would you go out and raise the initial AUM?16:25 – Niels; Question Two: How should CTAs & Trend Followers present themselves? Is Crisis Alpha an appropriate label?22:32 – Niels; Question Three: If you could invite 4 people to dinner, from past or present, who would you choose?24:00 – Niels; Question Four: Anything you would like to share regarding your latest book?26:23 – Brian; Question One: Do you think Options strategies distort Trends and the performance of Trend Following strategies?27:08 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in...
14 Tammi 202029min
SI69: Richard Thaler on the perils of overconfidence and how to overcome it
In this first episode of 2020, we discuss whether there any investment strategies that can work during all times, the recent Barron’s article featuring Richard Thaler on the perils of overconfidence, how Trend Following helps to prevent being too confident, the inherent negativity bias within most investors, the drawbacks of positivity when investing, and why you should consider the costs of being too cautious just as much as the costs of taking on too much risk. Questions covered this week include: Are CTAs becoming too cautious? Is it really worth diversifying away from developed markets? What causes you to make adjustments to your models?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:09 – Macro recap from Niels14:06 – Weekly review of performance19:18 – Top tweets49:01 – Question 1: Sam; Is it worth diversifying away from developed markets?55:22 – Question 2: Edmund; Can you recommend any detailed backtesting software with the ability to test variable position sizes?58:12 – Question 3: Drew; What causes you to make adjustments to your models?01:06:14 – Question 4: Sebastian; Why is it so hard to be a successful Trend Follower, when it seems we as Humans innately like to follow trends anyway (ie. fashion, social media, tech)?01:12:39 – Benchmark performance update01:14:16 – Send your questions in for our upcoming special guest, Andreas ClenowCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries...
5 Tammi 20201h 16min
SI68: The surprising relationship between volatility and risk
In this week’s episode, we discuss the notion of correlation between volatility and risk, why it can be a bad idea to equate a manager’s performance with their skill-level, when a losing trade should still be considered a good trade, how much opportunity is in Low-Volatility Targeting strategies, and we also give our end-of-year reviews. Questions answered this week include: Is Trend Following another form of price prediction? Do you follow the weekly Commitments of Traders report? Can you can you make money in the markets without the need for predictions?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro00:55 – Macro recap from Niels03:10 – Weekly review of performance18:41 – Top tweets43:29 – Question 1: Woody; Is Trend Following another form of predicting price moves?01:00:18 – Question 2 William; Do you follow the weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report?01:05:02 – Benchmark performance update01:08:52 – End of year recap01:19:32 – Top tweets (cont.)01:20:59 – Thank you to our listeners in 2019Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a...
29 Joulu 20191h 23min
SI67: The psychology of predictions
This week, we touch on the difference a year makes, how good position sizing can reduce anxiety, the recent article from AQR by Cliff Asness, why a meaningful allocation to Trend Following might be considered a must for any portfolio, the psychology of prediction, and some of the drawbacks of Trading from chart patterns. Questions we cover this week include: Would CTAs want to publish their returns to investors less frequently? Does history always ‘rhyme’? Is the Fibonacci sequence a reliable indicator? How do you differentiate Trend Following from a typical Long Volatility strategy?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:37 – Macro recap from Niels03:10 – Weekly review of performance11:55 – Top tweets (starting with tweet about recent Cliff Asness article from AQR)50:48 – Announcement of future podcast guest, Andreas Clenow, in January 202053:47 – Question 1: Mike; How would you differentiate Trend Following from a typical Long-Volatility strategy?57:50 – Question 2 Drew; Does the strategy of buying into a Trend Following fund during its drawdowns count as a form of Value Investing, and therefore, hypocritical to Trend Following philosophy?01:03:37 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about...
23 Joulu 20191h 6min
SI66: Why price is a better guide to higher returns than expert opinion
In this week’s episode, find out why investing in a strategy during a drawdown can be profitable in the long-run, why risk-adjusted performance is more important than tracking against an index, why price is a better guide than expert opinion, if there is a time when you shouldn’t attempt to have uncorrelated securities in your portfolio, and the connections between Trading, statistics, & sports.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:21 – Macro recap from Niels02:57 – Weekly review of performance06:12 – Top tweets50:48 – Announcement of podcast guest, Andreas Clenow, in January 202051:23 – Question 1: Drew; Should you enter a breakout trade based on an intra-day signal or end of day signal?56:26 – Benchmark performance updateCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good...
15 Joulu 201958min
