Forecasting Jobs: How Leading Indicators Predict Unemployment"

Forecasting Jobs: How Leading Indicators Predict Unemployment"

In this episode, we explore new research on how leading labor market indicators—like job advertisements, vacancies, and consumer unemployment expectations—can improve forecasts of the unemployment rate. You'll hear how combining data sources such as ABS vacancies, ANZ-Indeed job ads, and Westpac-Melbourne Institute surveys helps create a powerful summary indicator that outperforms traditional models. We also discuss the value of these tools in the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecasting framework and what they reveal about the health of the labor market. Perfect for anyone interested in economic forecasting, policy planning, or the dynamics behind employment trends.

Source: RBA

Jaksot(61)

Chasing Full Employment: Understanding the NAIRU and Inflation Trade-offs

Chasing Full Employment: Understanding the NAIRU and Inflation Trade-offs

Can unemployment ever be too low? In this episode, we explore the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment—or NAIRU—a key economic concept used to gauge how low unemployment can go without trig...

9 Touko 202513min

Unpacking Unemployment: What the Numbers Really Mean

Unpacking Unemployment: What the Numbers Really Mean

Unemployment is more than just a headline figure—it’s a window into the health of the labour market and the economy. In this episode, we break down how the unemployment rate is measured in Australia b...

9 Touko 202515min

The Power of Productivity: Measuring What Drives Economic Growth

The Power of Productivity: Measuring What Drives Economic Growth

What exactly is productivity, and why does it matter so much in economics? In this episode, we demystify productivity by exploring its two key forms—labour productivity and multifactor productivity (M...

9 Touko 202519min

Riding the Waves: Understanding Business Cycles and Recessions

Riding the Waves: Understanding Business Cycles and Recessions

What causes economies to boom and bust? In this episode, we break down the business cycle—its phases, causes, and consequences—and explore what defines a recession versus a depression. We examine diff...

9 Touko 202515min

GDP and Beyond: Understanding Economic Growth in Australia

GDP and Beyond: Understanding Economic Growth in Australia

What drives a nation's economy forward? In this episode, we take a deep dive into the concept of economic growth, focusing on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the key measure of progress. You'll learn ...

7 Touko 202524min

Behind the Numbers: How Australia Measures Inflation

Behind the Numbers: How Australia Measures Inflation

What exactly is inflation, and how do we measure it? In this episode, we dive into the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—Australia’s main tool for tracking inflation. We explain how the Australian Bureau of ...

7 Touko 202514min

Why Australia Targets 2–3% Inflation?

Why Australia Targets 2–3% Inflation?

What’s behind Australia’s 2–3% inflation target—and why does it matter? In this episode, we break down the Reserve Bank of Australia's inflation target, how it's measured using the Consumer Price Inde...

7 Touko 202513min

Explaining the Causes of Inflation

Explaining the Causes of Inflation

In this episode, we unpack the key causes of inflation and explore how rising prices can stem from different sources. We delve into the three main types of inflation: demand-pull, cost-push, and infla...

7 Touko 202518min

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