SI351: The Two Tribes of Trend ft. Richard Brennan

SI351: The Two Tribes of Trend ft. Richard Brennan

As trend followers push through one of the toughest environments in years, Rich and Niels unpack what’s actually driving the pain. They draw a sharp line between two camps in the industry - those who focus on standalone market behavior and those who manage trend as a portfolio-level phenomenon, and explain why that distinction now matters more than ever. From the ripple effects of tariff policy to the quiet fragility in institutional positioning, this episode traces how structural shifts are colliding with legacy assumptions. Also on the table: AI’s growing role in model development, the hidden costs of bad data, and what it really takes to build a resilient, scalable process in a world where noise is cheap and conviction is rare.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:13 - Introduction to Systematic Investing

03:55 - The Shift Towards AI in Trading

11:25 - The Rise of Idiosyncratic Trend Following Post-2020

21:42 - The Impact of Recent Market Dynamics

25:39 - The Rise of Retail Trading in Futures

34:09 - The Panama Method of Historical Adjustments

42:32 - Understanding Backtesting and Data Integrity in Trading Models

47:36 - Navigating Capital Constraints in Trend Following

55:14 - Understanding AI in Trading Strategies

01:00:14 - The Challenges of AI in Trading and Strategy Development

01:04:44 - The Impact of AI on Humanity

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

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TTU06: Why Trend Following Systems Make Money Over Time ft. Tushar Chande – 2of2

TTU06: Why Trend Following Systems Make Money Over Time ft. Tushar Chande – 2of2

We’re back with the second part of our conversation with the Head of Research at Rho Asset Management. In this episode we discuss the details of Managing Equity Curves, Trade Length in CTA systems and how Rho achieves to get the optimal position size when entering new trades.Thank you for visiting, now let’s continue the interview with Tushar Chande.In This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Rho creates for algorithms to decide the size of a new positionThe difference between the models in terms of trade lengthThe trade frequency Rho Asset ManagementAbout the design philosophy in creating the profile of its Altius ProgramDiscussing the research cycle and the research reviewsMajor findings that led to the creation of the Altius ProgramWhy trend following systems make money over timeHow the CTA strategies will overcome challenges in the futureThe main thing investors should take away as a benefit of investing with CTAsFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

12 Kesä 201440min

TTU05: What You Must Do To Survive In the CTA Business ft. Tushar Chande – 1of2

TTU05: What You Must Do To Survive In the CTA Business ft. Tushar Chande – 1of2

On today’s show I am talking to Tushar Chande, Co-Founder and Head of Research at Rho Asset Management. Tushar is also the author of a number of books on the topic of how to design rule based trading systems as well as having been actively trading these systems for more than 20 years.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Why the random nature of the markets attracted Tushar to develop systems for trading these marketsBackground information on Rho Asset Management and it’s philosophyHow Tushar utilizes behaviors of discretionary traders to make estimates of conviction about their individual tradesHow Rho has designed it’s Altius Program to offer meaningful protection when equity markets go downWhat to be aware of when exploring an Asset Manager’s performance over a 20 year periodOffense/Defense Ratio, What it means and How to use it to Measure the quality of systems designHow Rho’s models have been designed in order to achieve the overall objective of the ProgramWhat Trend Following Indicators are used for and whyExploring the volatility of the equity curveThe input data needed to run the Altius Program, the time it takes and when they run the model-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Beyond Technical Analysis by Dr. Tushar ChandeFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key...

9 Kesä 201442min

TTU04: What it Takes to Become a Great Trader ft. Mike Dever of Brandywine Asset Management – 2of2

TTU04: What it Takes to Become a Great Trader ft. Mike Dever of Brandywine Asset Management – 2of2

In this episode we continue our conversation with the founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management and discuss the aspects of what makes his rule based asset management style so successful.Enjoy the second part of my conversation with, Mike Dever.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Continuing the Conversation around why Trend Following can be more difficultDescribing Disparate Return DriversHow Brandywine Assets Management actually implements the decisions of their trading modelWhy Position Sizing and Risk Management Principles are EverythingHow position sizes are managed across various Return DriversWhy Sharpe Ratio is a meaningless measure on it’s own. It doesn’t give you any idea on predictability of returns.The professional traders approach to the emotional challenges of drawdown.Managing regulation challengesThe environment of marketing trend following strategies to investorsWhat it takes to become a great trader todayWho Mike started out aspiring to be likeIf Mike has any personal habits that contribute to his success-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Jackass Investing by Mike DeverLearn about Dick Donchian the Grandfather of Trend FollowingLearn about Poul Tudor Jones of Robin Hood FoundationLearn about John W. HenryFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or <a...

5 Kesä 201444min

TTU03 How To Get Predictable Returns ft. Mike Dever of Brandywine Asset Management – 1of2

TTU03 How To Get Predictable Returns ft. Mike Dever of Brandywine Asset Management – 1of2

On today’s show I am talking to Mike Dever, the Founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management. Mike is a Divergent Thinking Systematic Investment Manager and Author of the best selling book “Jackass Investing”. Mike has been trading for almost 4 decades and shares a wealth of insight to how he has stayed successful and how his trading approach and research has stayed current in an ever changing financial landscape.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The Evolution of Mike’s TradingHow Mike almost got in to business with Richard DonchianHow they developed a systematic trading model in the 1980sHow Mike met and invested with Paul Tudor Jones, John W. Henry and was the first outside investor in TranstrendHow Mike went from being a discretionary trader to become fully systematic when launching the Benchmark Program, and WhyAbout the experience of running the Brandywine Benchmark Program in in the ‘90sHow Mike discovered the importance of Portfolio Allocation in the 1980sThe Story of Developing the Predictive Diversification Portfolio Allocation ModelThe Entrepreneurial Storm that Kept Mike away from Trading and Brandywine for YearsThe story of developing the Brandywine Symphony ProgramHow many people it takes to run a system with more than 1,000 strategy/market combinationsExploring the track record of Brandywine Symphony ProgramWhy one should avoid making decisions based on single return drivers5 Themes in Brandywine’s Asset Allocation Strategy: Fundamental, Sentiment, Event, Arbitrage and Alpha HedgeHow Marginal Cost of Production Works as a Return DriverAre the strategies from the 1980’s just as effective today?What is directional arbitrage?-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Jackass Investing by Mike DeverLearn about Richard Donchian the Grandfather of Trend FollowingLearn about Poul Tudor Jones of Robin Hood FoundationLearn about John W. HenryFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

2 Kesä 201458min

TTU02: Why The Game of Picking Sectors is a Fool’s Errand ft. Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital Partners – 2of2

TTU02: Why The Game of Picking Sectors is a Fool’s Errand ft. Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital Partners – 2of2

Welcome back to our conversation with Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital Partners.In this interview we discuss the history of Sunrise Capital Partners, the current evolution in their financial product line and the inner workings of what it takes to make it as a successful trading organization in the ever changing market conditions.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:Exploring the design structure of the Sunrise Evolution program: Quadrant A, B, C and D and how they play togetherDetailed examples of how trading models can be different.How trade implementation works with complex systems like theseAbout the Volume of trading the Sunrise Capital does each dayWhy the game of picking sectors is a fools errandStrategies for dealing with the emotional weight of drawdownsSunrise Capital Management’s approach to researchThe traits and what it takes to become a great CTA----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jason on LinkedIn.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score...

29 Touko 20141h 2min

TTU01: Are Research Ideas Overrated? ft. Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital Partners – 1of2

TTU01: Are Research Ideas Overrated? ft. Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital Partners – 1of2

Sunrise Capital was the first CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) ever.The company has evolved considerably since its inception in the 1970s.Today on the show, Jason Gerlach, the Chief Executive Officer at Sunrise Capital joins us to discuss the history of the company and about the evolution of their trading strategy over nearly 4 decades. Sunrise has achieved astounding results over the lifetime of the company and Jason provides unique insights to the inner workings of Sunrise.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:The story of Sunrise Capitals founding in the early 1970sRick Slaughter (Sunrise’s Chief Researcher) founded Commodity Monitors – the First Hedge Fund/CTA firm ever launchedJack Forest (Sunrise Commodities) and Gary Davis (Cresta Commodities) – The doctors trading outside the hospitalHow the three pioneers of the CTA/Commodity Trading Industry came together to form Sunrise Capital Partners in the mid 90’sHow Jason was brought on into the firm and developed a succession plan for the businessThe unexpected story of how Jason “the Attorney” turned into Jason “the Systematic Trading Guy”What Sunrise Capital Partners offer today?How does one structure a CTA firm like Sunrise, what functions and how do you manage them?The role of outsourcing in the day-to-day operations of Sunrise Capital PartnersWhat Sunrise discovered in the early 00’s which indicated to them a decay in long-term trend following and how they responded-----Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:Download the article Niels mentioned: Fallacies to Avoid When Selecting a CTAFollow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or <a...

26 Touko 201437min

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