What Kind of a Hike Was It?
The Federal Open Market Committee added a couple of interesting phrases to its policy statement announcing a fourth consecutive 75-basis-point interest-rate increase, noting that it will take into account time lags and the impact of cumulative tightening during future meetings. In his post-FOMC-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the centrality of price stability to sustained economic growth, acknowledged data indicating the U.S. economy is slowing, and noted the continuing strength of a still “out-of-balance” labor market. George Goncalves, the head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about whether the FOMC statement was neutral, hawkish, or dovish, overall liquidity heading into the end of the year, and why we need to keep an eye on overseas markets. We also hear from Jesse Felder, the author of The Felder Report, about why we face a period of elevated inflation and what investments will work in such an environment. Watch the full interview between Jesse Felder and Maggie Lake here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/make-or-break-inflation/videos/there-wont-be-a-crash-but-drpj?tab=details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
2 Marras 202234min
What Will China Do?
Chinese stocks and the yuan rallied on unconfirmed reports authorities have formed a committee to reconsider China’s “COVID zero” restrictions on economic activity. There was no follow-through in the U.S., though, as investors remain focused on Wednesday and the Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary policy decision. Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of the Morning Navigator, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what impact a reopening of the Chinese economy China will have on global commodity markets and how to position for potential upside. We also hear from Jesse Felder, author of The Felder Report, about how changing investment patterns will impact the technology and energy sectors. Watch the full interview between Jesse Felder and Maggie Lake here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/make-or-break-inflation/videos/there-wont-be-a-crash-but-drpj?tab=details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
1 Marras 202236min
Energy Crisis Dos and Don'ts With Doomberg
“This should be fun,” tweeted Doomberg amid reports President Joe Biden will propose a “windfall tax” on profits of oil and gas producers, as political leaders continue to pose against the global energy problem. Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes the congenitally acerbic and always insightful Green Chicken for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about realistic solutions to a situation that only seems to be growing worse by the day – with inflation yet to peak and still more resource-scarcity promised by Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative. We also hear from White Tundra Investments CEO Shubham Garg, who shares his reasoning for exponential growth in global oil demand. Watch Shubham Garg’s complete presentation here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/3-ideas/videos/where-to-pick-in-canadas-energy-patch-LwzQ?tab=details. THIS IS THE FINAL DAY OF REAL VISION’S “CRASH CAMPAIGN” DISCOUNTS! Head over to www.realvision.com/crashpricing to subscribe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
31 Loka 202240min
The Next Big Trade - Dan Rasmussen on When It’s Time for Small-Value Stocks
Which economic indicator is the most reliable for confirming we’re in a crisis? According to Verdad Capital founder and portfolio manager Dan Rasmussen, it’s high-yield spreads. Identifying the key relationships across the globe isn’t hard. Formulating an approach that surfaces alpha when spreads spike is where it gets difficult. Per Rasmussen, the best way to act in such environments is through small-value equities. Rasmussen explains why it makes sense and how to time the trade in a captivating episode of The Next Big Trade. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
30 Loka 202259min
My Life in 4 Trades - Trading Is Not a Game of “Perfect”
Born into a family of cotton traders, Alexander Stahel is a natural when it comes to commodities. Alexander grew up in Switzerland before he migrated to the U.K. to begin an investment banking career. Now the chief investment officer at Burggraben Holding, the Zug, Switzerland-based firm he founded, he’s focused on finding great value in a few public and private companies. In this episode of My Life in Four Trades, Alexander explains why – just like golf – trading is not a “perfect” game. He also talks about how to avoid blind spots and shares his forecast for the energy space. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
29 Loka 202250min
Why It’s Not the End of the World as We Know It
Stocks surged into the weekend, with all three major U.S. equity indexes up more than 2% two hours ahead of Friday’s close. “The market isn't rallying on hopes of a pivot,” tweeted Michael Gayed. “It's rallying on bond-market stabilization.” Michael, the publisher of The Lead-Lag Report, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to elaborate on his contrarian “melt-up” thesis and to talk about sentiment and other technical factors such as breadth and seasonality. “I don’t believe the end of the world is here,” Michael added. “This year, the market has conditioned people to think it will do nothing but go lower.” We also share a preview of “the most important interview in the history of Real Vision,” as Raoul Pal put it, featuring Emad Mostaque and his vision of artificial intelligence of, by, and for the people. Watch the full conversation between Emad Mostaque and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3SGhTSU. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
28 Loka 202235min
Do Central Banks Have Control?
The European Central Bank announced a second 75-basis-point interest-rate increase in as many months on Thursday, meeting economists’ expectations with inflation riding at a record-high 9.9%. The euro weakened against the dollar, even as Treasury yields softened, as investor concern about future growth seems to be intensifying. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized pace of 2.6% during the third quarter. Global Markets Editor Weston Nakamura joins Maggie Lake live in Real Vision’s New York studio for a special edition of the Daily Briefing to talk about the new “widow-maker” trade and the dilemma central bankers face, illustrated by the Bank of Japan’s money-printing into the Ministry of Finance’s yen-buying. Weston discusses in greater depth the emerging conflicts between governments and their central banks here: https://rvtv.io/3DhzACD. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
27 Loka 202238min
When Will the Fed Get the Message?
More central banks are signaling turns away from tightening as concerns about growth have begun to overwhelm fears of inflation, with the Bank of Canada cutting its policy rate by a smaller-than-expected 50 basis points today. It’s notable that the Canadian dollar rallied against the U.S. dollar. On the fiscal front, Japan has prepared a 67.1 trillion yen stimulus package. Oh, and Google’s and Microsoft’s earnings reports are dragging the Nasdaq Composite toward a 2% loss. When he last visited the Daily Briefing, Darius Dale pointed out that there’s no recession until we see an inversion of the three-month/10-year yield curve – well, it was very small, but that did happen yesterday. So, what now? Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about all that and more. We also hear from Lee Robinson about Jerome Powell’s sensitivity to Paul Volcker’s record on fighting inflation. Watch the full conversation featuring Lee Robinson and Nick Lawson here: https://rvtv.io/3FifJWE. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
26 Loka 202237min
