TIVP024: TSMC (TSM): The Most Important Business in the World? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley

Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley turn their focus to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (ticker: TSM) — the quiet engine powering nearly every device we touch and the global AI boom. Pioneering the pure-play foundry model, TSMC went from a government-backed experiment in the late 1980s to controlling more than 90 % of the world’s leading-edge chip production, fabricating Apple’s A- and M-series processors, Nvidia’s AI GPUs, and virtually every 3nm part on the planet. In this episode, you’ll learn how Morris Chang’s radical bet rewired the semiconductor industry, why extreme scale and EUV mastery give TSMC a moat rival chipmakers can’t cross, how its Arizona and Japan fabs fit into a strategy shaped by China-Taiwan tension, and how wafer volumes, node mix, and multi-billion-dollar capex translate into free-cash-flow and ROIIC. Daniel and Shawn also debate the right way to price the ever-present geopolitical “wipe-out” tail risk, and ask whether today’s market price offers a margin of safety on what could be the most important company in the world. Prefer to watch? Click ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to watch this episode on YouTube. IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN 00:00 - Intro 07:39 - How TSMC evolved from a government-backed project to a trillion-dollar company 07:45 - How the semiconductor industry works 16:10 - Where TSMC’s dominance comes from 31:27 - What moat protects TSMC’s business 39:54 - What the competitive landscape looks like 43:55 - Where future growth is coming from 49:45 - How geopolitical risk is impacting TSMC 1:03:25 - Whether TSMC is attractively valued at its current levels 1:09:18 - Whether Shawn & Daniel add TSM to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio And much, much more! *Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Sign Up for ⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Community.⁠ Interview with TSMC Founder Morris Chang Quartr’s Overview of TSMC NZS Semiconductor Whitepaper Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Nintendo⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Airbnb⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠AutoZone⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Alphabet⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ulta⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠John Deere⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Madison Square Garden Sports⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Check out the books mentioned in the podcast ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X (Twitter)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TikTok⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Try Shawn's favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Finance⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠best business podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our ⁠⁠sponsors⁠⁠: • Airbnb⁠ Connect with Shawn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Email⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Connect with Daniel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Email⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠rating and review⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠! It takes less than 30 seconds and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm