35: Nukes, Putin’s Threats, Trump Returns & UK Defence Cuts

As the United Kingdom strives to maintain a credible strategic deterrent in the face of Russian aggression – including threats from President Vladimir Putin to ‘go nuclear’ due to alleged Western interference in the Ukraine War - our guest on the podcast is Dr David Blagden.

Together with podcast host Iain Ballantyne he considers the case for augmenting the UK’s sea-based Trident missile force. Among other things, Iain wonders if a driver might be the sheer stress imposed on the Royal Navy’s (RN’s) ballistic missile submarines by very long patrols.

Bearing in mind developments such as Moscow changing its nuclear doctrine yet again - in response to Ukraine using long-range missiles inside Russia itself - do the UK and France (as Europe’s nuclear weapons powers) and also the USA - need to place more focus on ‘sub-strategic’ potential? And what does that mean?

Is it too dangerous to even contemplate due to the difficulty in knowing whether or not a Trident submarine is launching a full-scale strategic nuclear missile or a lower yield sub-strategic strike?

Iain asks if the West’s nuclear deterrent as a whole has been invalidated by the Ukraine War. Moscow was not deterred from invading Ukraine. But, there again, it has refrained from unleashing its entire military power and has not made a direct move against NATO, or used nukes…yet.

And are European powers, with their comparatively weak conventional forces, in danger of relying on nuclear weapons as a first line of defence rather than a last resort?

Finally, as we possibly head towards some kind of negotiated end to the Ukraine War under the new Trump presidency, where is UK and European defence going and will Britain’s Strategic Defence Review (SDR) rise to the occasion?

Shortly before the podcast episode was recorded the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) revealed more naval cuts – months before the results of the SDR are announced. Being axed are a frigate, two amphibious warfare command ships and a pair of Royal Fleet Auxiliary (RFA) tankers. Iain and David discuss those development too and their implications.

•The next (January 2025) edition of ‘Warships IFR’ is published on 20.12.24 in the UK and also deployed globally. It will include articles touching on some aspects of topics discussed in this podcast episode.

Visit the magazine web site http://bit.ly/wifrmag Also, follow it on X @WarshipsIFR Facebook @WarshipsIFR and Warships IFR TV on YouTube @warshipsifrtv3668 For more on various editions of the magazine https://bit.ly/wifri

• Dr David Blagden is Associate Professor of International Security and Strategy at the University of Exeter. He has served as Specialist Adviser to the House of Lords’ International Relations and Defence Committee, consulted for various HM Government departments, and given evidence to several Parliamentary Select Committee inquiries. Dr Blagden is also a Visiting Fellow of the Royal Navy Strategic Studies Centre and a Senior Associate Fellow of the NATO Defence College. He has written for outlets including The Guardian, The Spectator and the New Statesman. Follow him on X @blagden_david

Dr Blagden wrote about the UK and its potential need for nuclear deterrent augmentation in the November 2024 edition of Warships IFR. To obtain that edition visit https://sundialmedia.escosubs.co.uk/store/products,november-2024_586.htm

•Iain Ballantyne is the founding and current Editor of ‘Warships IFR’ magazine (first published in 1998) along with its ‘Guide to the Royal Navy’ (since 2003) and ‘Guide to the US Navy’ (since 2018). Iain is also author of the books ‘Hunter Killers’ (Orion) and ‘The Deadly Trade’ (Weidenfeld & Nicolson), both about submarine warfare, plus ‘Arnhem: Ten Days in The Cauldron’ and ‘Bismarck: 24 Hours to Doom’ (published by Canelo). In 2017 Iain was awarded a Fellowship by the British Maritime Foundation, which promotes awareness of the United Kingdom’s dependence on the sea and seafarers. Visit his web site Bismarckbattle.com and follow him on X @IBallantyn or Bluesky @iainballantyne.bsky.social