[Linkpost] “A deep critique of AI 2027’s bad timeline models” by titotal

[Linkpost] “A deep critique of AI 2027’s bad timeline models” by titotal

This is a link post.

Thank you to Arepo and Eli Lifland for looking over this article for errors.

I am sorry that this article is so long. Every time I thought I was done with it I ran into more issues with the model, and I wanted to be as thorough as I could. I’m not going to blame anyone for skimming parts of this article.

Note that the majority of this article was written before Eli's updated model was released (the site was updated june 8th). His new model improves on some of my objections, but the majority still stand.

Introduction:

AI 2027 is an article written by the “AI futures team”. The primary piece is a short story penned by Scott Alexander, depicting a month by month scenario of a near-future where AI becomes superintelligent in 2027,proceeding to automate the entire economy in only [...]

---

Outline:

(00:45) Introduction:

(05:21) Part 1: Time horizons extension model

(05:27) Overview of their forecast

(10:30) The exponential curve

(13:18) The superexponential curve

(19:27) Conceptual reasons:

(27:50) Intermediate speedups

(34:27) Have AI 2027 been sending out a false graph?

(39:47) Some skepticism about projection

(43:25) Part 2: Benchmarks and gaps and beyond

(43:31) The benchmark part of benchmark and gaps:

(50:03) The time horizon part of the model

(54:57) The gap model

(57:31) What about Eli's recent update?

(01:01:39) Six stories that fit the data

(01:06:58) Conclusion

The original text contained 11 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

---

First published:
June 19th, 2025

Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KgejNns3ojrvCfFbi/a-deep-critique-of-ai-2027-s-bad-timeline-models

Linkpost URL:
https://titotal.substack.com/p/a-deep-critique-of-ai-2027s-bad-timeline

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---

Images from the article:

Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Jaksot(250)

“If You Do One Thing for Animals This Year, Do This” by Becca Rogers

“If You Do One Thing for Animals This Year, Do This” by Becca Rogers

There is a short window to prevent a US bill that would overturn decades of animal welfare progress. This is arguably the most consequential piece of farm animal legislation in U.S. history. Summary ...

5 Touko 21min

[Linkpost] “Starfish” by Aaron Gertler 🔸

[Linkpost] “Starfish” by Aaron Gertler 🔸

This is a link post. By Alexander Wales Thousands of starfish had washed up on the beach, and a little girl was diligently throwing them back into the water, one at a time. A man came up to the girl a...

1 Touko 4min

“Time Sensitive Urgent Animal Welfare Action” by Bentham’s Bulldog

“Time Sensitive Urgent Animal Welfare Action” by Bentham’s Bulldog

The EATS act—now called the save our bacon act—would make it illegal for states to pass animal welfare laws that apply to products produced out of state. This would gut most state level animal protect...

29 Huhti 1min

“Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should Stop Funding It” by Marcus Abramovitch 🔸

“Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should Stop Funding It” by Marcus Abramovitch 🔸

Summary EA and rationalists got enamoured with forecasting and prediction markets and made them part of the culture, but this hasn’t proven very useful, yet it continues to receive substantial EA fun...

26 Huhti 8min

“My lover, effective altruism” by Natalie_Cargill

“My lover, effective altruism” by Natalie_Cargill

Crossposted from Substack. This post is part of a 30-posts-in-30-days ordeal at Inkhaven. All suboptimalities are the result of that. This is part 2, here is part 1 in my EA mini series! On my way to ...

26 Huhti 8min

“A Database of Near-Term Interventions for Wild Animals” by Bob Fischer

“A Database of Near-Term Interventions for Wild Animals” by Bob Fischer

The Animal Welfare Department (AWD) at Rethink Priorities supports high-impact strategies to help animals, especially where suffering is vast and largely neglected. Therefore, one of our focus areas i...

24 Huhti 17min

“The AI people have been right a lot” by Dylan Matthews

“The AI people have been right a lot” by Dylan Matthews

This post was crossposted from Dylan Matthew's blog by the EA Forum team. The author may not see or reply to comments. Subtitle: Try to keep an open mind as the world gets increasingly wild.The crowd ...

20 Huhti 10min

[Linkpost] “The Anthropic IPO Is Coming. We Aren’t Ready for It.” by Sophie Kim

[Linkpost] “The Anthropic IPO Is Coming. We Aren’t Ready for It.” by Sophie Kim

This is a link post. More money is coming than AI safety has ever seen. The capacity to deploy it doesn't exist yet.Image Source: Fortune.com This week, Anthropic announced Claude Mythos Preview– a mo...

17 Huhti 15min

Suosittua kategoriassa Yhteiskunta

olipa-kerran-otsikko
sita
i-dont-like-mondays
ihme-ja-kumma
kaksi-aitia
siita-on-vaikea-puhua
hupiklubi
uutiscast
poks
antin-palautepalvelu
gogin-ja-janin-maailmanhistoria
rss-murhan-anatomia
mamma-mia
kolme-kaannekohtaa
yopuolen-tarinoita-2
rss-palmujen-varjoissa
aikalisa
meidan-pitais-puhua
rss-haudattu
kummitusjuttuja