Tariff gambit shifts to August. Then what?
ING THINK aloud10 Heinä

Tariff gambit shifts to August. Then what?

President Donald Trump this week delayed the planned 9 July tariff hikes on US imports, notifying 22 countries that rates could rise as much as 50% on 1 August.

The White House had paused these measures for 90 days to pursue trade deals, but since Trump’s so-called Liberation Day announcement on 2 April, only three agreements have been reached.

ING’s Inga Fechner says the new deadline, which Trump has described as firm, but not 100% firm, prolongs the uncertainty for business and consumers around the world. James Knightley says this is weighing on US economic growth - with GDP forecasts for 2025 markedly lower than at the start of the year.

For now at least, markets are taking the news in stride, having recovered from the extreme volatility seen in April. But Padhraic Garvey says tariff-induced inflation and worries about fiscal sustainability present a difficult backdrop for US Treasuries.

In this week’s THINK aloud, a replay of our live webinar, we look at the future of so-called reciprocal tariffs, potential sector-specific tariffs, the legal uncertainties ahead, the threat of retaliation and the broader impact on the global economy and financial markets.

Jaksot(123)

Pains, Chains and Automobiles

Pains, Chains and Automobiles

The global car industry was forced to slam on the brakes this year, as a shortage of semiconductors hit production just as demand was starting to pick up. While the problem is expected to be temporary, unresolved supply issues and the rise of electric cars, which are even more reliant on chips, suggest there may be bumps in the road ahead, as ING's Oleksiy Soroka explains.

28 Heinä 202111min

Alarm bells ring for emerging markets

Alarm bells ring for emerging markets

Emerging markets have been resilient this year despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift in June and fresh lockdowns in some countries that threaten to derail the recovery. In this podcast, ING's Trieu Pham discusses why the calm has prevailed and how long it's likely to last.

16 Heinä 202111min

OPEC vs OPEC: How the oil drama may unfold

OPEC vs OPEC: How the oil drama may unfold

OPEC+ called off its meeting this week without an agreement to increase oil supplies, sending Brent to a three-year high and WTI to levels not seen since 2014. Since then, prices have fallen back with some market participants still expecting a deal to be struck while others say the disagreement could lead to a price war. In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson shares his thoughts on OPEC's next move, and what it could mean for prices.

9 Heinä 202110min

A "dangerous moment" for the Bank of England?

A "dangerous moment" for the Bank of England?

The Bank of England's outgoing chief economist Andy Haldane has sounded the alarm on inflation repeatedly this year and was the only MPC member to vote to reduce QE at this week's policy meeting. In this podcast, ING's James Smith weighs in on the debate and looks at the prospects for a rate hike as soon as next year.

25 Kesä 202113min

What the Fed's hawkish shift means for bonds

What the Fed's hawkish shift means for bonds

A hawkish Federal Reserve meeting has prompted investors to reassess the outlook for asset purchases and the timing of interest rate hikes. In this podcast, ING's Padhraic Garvey looks at the implications for the US Treasury market.

17 Kesä 202111min

ECB avoids taper talk but for how long?

ECB avoids taper talk but for how long?

The European Central Bank said it is still too early to discuss reducing monetary stimulus, even as it raised its growth and inflation forecasts for this year and next. In this podcast, ING's Carsten Brzeski discusses the Bank's latest decision and when it may be forced to change tack.

10 Kesä 202113min

Why the Fed may be wrong about inflation

Why the Fed may be wrong about inflation

US inflation is rising at the fastest pace in more than a decade. Should we be worried? In this podcast, ING's James Knightley discusses whether recent price rises are likely to be transitory as the Federal Reserve believes, or a more sustained risk to the recovery.

2 Kesä 202115min

A busy year for high yield

A busy year for high yield

Our High Yield trading, strategy and syndicate teams take over this week's podcast for an informal conversation around year-to-date primary debt markets.

26 Touko 202112min

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