WHAT ABOUT DEMOGRAPHICS? Cause for panic or time for intergenerational action? | Ft. John Elkington

Demography is the study of human populations, while demographics refer to the characteristics of a population like age, gender, ethnicity, income, education, health. These traits both influence – and are influenced by – the climate crisis.

In this episode, James and Daisy speak with John Elkington, a world authority on corporate responsibility and sustainable capitalism. Together they explore the role demographics play in shaping our climate future. What role do older generations play in shaping – or resisting – climate action? Will immigration become the main driver of population growth? How should demographic shifts inform climate solutions?

SOME RECOMMENDATIONS:

• Rewilding Markets – John Elkington’s blog on how we can design - and redesign - markets to meet tomorrow's needs.
• Hannah Ritchie (2025) – A data-led blog showing that while the generational divide in belief and concern about climate change is small, the differences are slightly greater when it comes to views on how to address it.
• Project Drawdown – Family planning and education could reduce carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by nearly 70 gigatons by 2050.
• Our World in Data – In 1800, the global population was 1 billion. It’s now over 8 billion. The UN projects that the global population will peak in 2086 at just over 10.4 billion people.

OTHER ADVOCATESAND RESOURCES:

• Green Swans (2020) – John Elkington’s twentieth book, a manifesto for system change designed to serve people, planet, and prosperity.
• IPAT Equation – I = P × A × T – Developed by Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren in 1972 to describe how impact (I) or environmental change is a function of population size (P), affluence (A), and technology (T).
• The Conduit (2025) – By 2050, Spain will have 8 million fewer working-age people, so it is issuing work permits to 900,000 undocumented migrants. The Bank of Spain estimated that immigration contributed a fifth of the near 3% GDP growth between 2022 and 2024.
• BBC (2019) – France spends more public money on families than any other OECD country. Its benefits include a ‘birth grant’ of around €950, followed by monthly child benefit and diverse family allowances, income tax reductions and state-subsidised day-care.
• BBC (2024) – A 2021 survey of 10,000 people aged 16 to 25 found that more than 40% of respondents in Australia, Brazil, India and the Philippines said climate change made them hesitant about having children. In France, Portugal, the UK and the US the figure was between 30% and 40%. In Nigeria it was 23%.
• Ingka Young Leaders Forum – A global youth advisory council where Ingka Group's senior decision-makers and the Young Leaders Forum members co-create actionable and transformational strategies together. Ingka Group is the largest IKEA franchisee.
• edie (2021) – At COP26, the Body Shop explored how a youth council could ensure that younger generations had their voices and issues heard by decision makers.

SOME FACTS:

• United Nations (2017) – The population of Nigeria is projected to surpass that of the United States by about 2050, at which point it would become the third largest country in the world.
• UN ECA (2024) – Globally, more than 1 in 4 people will be African in 2050, from 1 in 11 in 1960.
• European Commission (2023) – By 2060, Europeans over the age of 65 could account for 39% of the region’s total emissions.

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Music: “Just Because Some Bad Wind Blows” by Nick Nuttall, Reptiphon Records. Available at https://nicknuttallmusic.bandcamp.com/album/just-because-some-bad-wind-blows-3

Producer: Podshop Studios

Huge thanks to Siobhán Foster, a vital member of the team offering design advice, critical review and organisation that we depend upon.

Stay tuned for more insightful discussions on navigating the transition away from fossil fuels to a sustainable future.