The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network27 Heinä 2025

TIVP030: PayPal (PYPL): Value Trap or Multibagger? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley

Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley dive into PayPal’s post-pandemic reset, tracing the fintech pioneer’s slide from market darling to value-story candidate. Once lifted by lockdown spending and eBay tailwinds, PayPal has seen its growth stall, its take-rate decline, and investors seem to have given up on it. In this episode, Shawn and Daniel unpack whether new CEO Alex Chriss’s “profitable growth” playbook, Fastlane one-click checkout, a margin-focused Braintree overhaul, and fresh bets on Ads and the PYUSD stablecoin, can restore momentum. They also debate how realistic PayPal’s ambitious goals for the future are, what a sustained 6% share shrink via buybacks does for long-term EPS, how the new management team is incentivized, and whether PayPal’s consumer moat still matters in an Apple-Pay world. IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN 00:00 - Intro 04:38 - How PayPal became the No.1 payment provider and what the PayPal Mafia is. 09:47 - Why investors fell out of love with PayPal’s stock. 14:03 - What the next chapter under the new CEO will look like. 26:42 - Which new businesses could make PayPal dramatically more profitable? 33:31 - How the new strategy shows up in the numbers. 50:06 - Why the management incentive structure is a big benefit for shareholders. 51:36 - Whether stablecoins are bearish or bullish for PayPal. 01:01:11 - Whether PayPal is attractively valued at its current levels. 01:10:05 - Whether Shawn & Daniel add PYPL to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio. And much, much more! *Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Sign Up for ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Community.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Emerging Value Substack ⁠Article⁠. Crossroad’s ⁠Interview⁠ with Alex Chriss. PayPal 2025 ⁠Investor Day⁠. The Reservist ⁠Article⁠ on the Payment Industry. Jimmy Soni’s Book on The ⁠PayPal Mafia⁠. Explore our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Uber,⁠⁠⁠⁠Nike,⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Reddit,⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Nintendo⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Airbnb⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠AutoZone⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Alphabet⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ulta⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠John Deere⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Madison Square Garden Sports⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Check out the books mentioned in the podcast ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X (Twitter)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TikTok⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Try Shawn's favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Finance⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠best business podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our ⁠⁠sponsors⁠⁠: ⁠⁠Harvest Right⁠⁠ Connect with Shawn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Email⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Connect with Daniel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Email⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠rating and review⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠! It takes less than 30 seconds and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

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TIVP102 (Video): Hermès and LVMH Stock: Time to Buy Luxury? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley

Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley revisit the two luxury houses they passed on last time — Hermès (EPA: RMS), the 189-year-old maker of the Birkin bag, and LVMH (EPA: MC), the 75-brand conglomerate be...

11 Loka 1h 15min

TIVP101 (Video): HEICO Vs. TransDigm: Whose Aerospace Monopoly Is Better? w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O’Malley

In today’s episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley discuss HEICO and TransDigm, two dominant players in the aerospace components industry known for their pricing power and resiliency. They’ll compare ...

7 Loka 1h 17min

TIVP100 (Video): Walmart (WMT): From Discount Retailer to eCommerce Powerhouse w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O’Malley

In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley discuss Walmart and how it grew from Sam Walton's small-town five-and-dime into a retail giant. Today, it also makes money from e-commerce, a marketp...

4 Loka 1h 15min

TIVP099 (Video): Meta (META): What the Market Misses w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley

Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley revisit Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META), the advertising machine behind Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp that reaches 3.6 billion people every day — over 40% of the wo...

27 Syys 1h 29min

TIVP098 (Video): Alphabet (GOOGL): The Megacap That Still Might Be Underrated w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O’Malley

In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley revisit Alphabet nearly two years after Shawn's original pitch, tracing how the company transformed from a cash-rich, buyback-driven business into an...

20 Syys 1h 20min

TIVP097 (Video): Copart Stock (CPRT): Is Copart now a Buy? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley

Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley revisit Copart (NASDAQ: CPRT), the online salvage auction giant that turns totaled cars into a global marketplace, connecting insurers with more than a million buyers...

13 Syys 1h 10min

TIVP096 (Video): Uber (UBER): The Autonomy Referendum: Is Mr. Market Completely Wrong? w/ Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahncke

Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahncke revisit Uber (NYSE: UBER), one of the largest holdings in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio, fifteen months after they first pitched it. In that time, Uber’s operating pr...

9 Syys 1h 4min

TIVP095 (Video): Applovin (APP): The 30-Bagger Down More Than Half w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley

In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley break down AppLovin, the mobile advertising platform that went from a failed app recommendation tool to one of the most profitable businesses in ad t...

6 Syys 1h 33min