20VC: a16z's Martin Casado on Anthropic vs OpenAI: Where Value Accrues | Cursor vs Replit vs Lovable: Who Wins and Who Loses | The One Sin in AI Investing | Why Open Source is a National Security Risk with China

20VC: a16z's Martin Casado on Anthropic vs OpenAI: Where Value Accrues | Cursor vs Replit vs Lovable: Who Wins and Who Loses | The One Sin in AI Investing | Why Open Source is a National Security Risk with China

Martin Casado is a General Partner @ a16z where he leads the firms $1.25BN infrastructure fund. At a16z, Martin has led investments in companies like Cursor, dbt Labs, and Fivetran to name a few. Before joining a16z, he co-founded Nicira, acquired by VMware for $1.26B. At VMware, he served as CTO of Networking. Widely regarded as a visionary in enterprise infrastructure, Martin has helped shape the modern cloud computing stack.

Agenda:

00:00 – Analysis of Current AI Investment Landscape

04:45 – Will Anthropic Kill the AI App Layer?

09:20 – "The Oligopoly Is Coming—Just Like Cloud"

12:50 – Are AI Models Actually Terrible Venture Investments?

15:40 – Why it is BS to Put Down AI Apps for Having Temporary Revenue

21:30 – "Open Source Is a National Security Weapon—And We're Losing"

26:40 – "Have the Foundation Models of the Future All Been Founded Already"

34:30 – Why it is BS to Denigrate AI Apps for Having Low Margins

38:40 – Does AI Make 1x Engineers 10x or 10x Becomes 100x

44:10 – "We're All Dead Wrong About AI and Job Loss"

50:30 – "The Only Sin in Venture: Backing the Wrong Winner"

55:10 – What People Think They Know About Wealth But Do Not

Jaksot(1410)

20VC: Databricks at $100BN | Chamath's SPAC Revival: Peak Mania? | OpenAI Staff Cash Out Billions & Sam Altman Will Spend Trillions | CoreWeave's $11B Debt Bet & Nubank's $2.5B Profit Shocker

20VC: Databricks at $100BN | Chamath's SPAC Revival: Peak Mania? | OpenAI Staff Cash Out Billions & Sam Altman Will Spend Trillions | CoreWeave's $11B Debt Bet & Nubank's $2.5B Profit Shocker

Agenda: 00:00 – Databricks hits $100B: Bubble or just the beginning? 03:15 – Is Databricks actually undervalued at 25x revenue? 07:40 – Are we on the verge of the biggest IPO wave ever? 11:30 – Can An...

21 Elo 20251h 27min

20VC: Lovable CEO Anton Osika on $120M in ARR in 7 Months | The Honest Truth About Defensibility and Unit Economics for AI Startups | The State of Foundation Models: Long Grok, Short OpenAI, Why | Replit vs Lovable vs Bolt: What Happens

20VC: Lovable CEO Anton Osika on $120M in ARR in 7 Months | The Honest Truth About Defensibility and Unit Economics for AI Startups | The State of Foundation Models: Long Grok, Short OpenAI, Why | Replit vs Lovable vs Bolt: What Happens

Anton Osika is the Co-Founder and CEO @ Lovable, the fastest growing company on the planet. In just 7 months, they have scaled from $0 to $120M in ARR. They have raised over $200M in funding from some...

18 Elo 20251h 8min

20VC: 15 Term Sheets in 7 Days and Choosing Benchmark | Harvey vs Legora: Who Wins Legal and How to Play When You Have $600M Less Funding | Are AI Models Plateauing Today | Building a 9-9-6 Culture From Stockholm with Max Junestrand

20VC: 15 Term Sheets in 7 Days and Choosing Benchmark | Harvey vs Legora: Who Wins Legal and How to Play When You Have $600M Less Funding | Are AI Models Plateauing Today | Building a 9-9-6 Culture From Stockholm with Max Junestrand

Max Junestrand is the Co-Founder and CEO @ Legora, the collaborative AI powering the next generation of lawyers. Now this is an insane story for many reasons; first, Max turned down a multi-million do...

15 Elo 20251h 20min

20VC: GPT5: Sam Altman's Masterplan or a Gift To Anthropic | Palantir & Shopify Crush Earnings | Monday & Datadog Perform But Hit Hard by Wall St | Should Perplexity Buy Chrome for $34.5BN |

20VC: GPT5: Sam Altman's Masterplan or a Gift To Anthropic | Palantir & Shopify Crush Earnings | Monday & Datadog Perform But Hit Hard by Wall St | Should Perplexity Buy Chrome for $34.5BN |

AGENDA: 00:04 – Was GPT-5 the Biggest AI Letdown Yet? 00:17 – Is OpenAI's Real Target Anthropic's $6B Revenue? 00:22 – Why Anthropic Might Secretly Be Worried 00:28 – The Hidden Business Strategy Behi...

14 Elo 20251h 22min

20VC: Figma, Scale, Wiz: Inside Index's Decacorn Factory | Decision-Making, Investment Process, Biggest Lessons, Biggest Misses | Why Gross Margin is a Fallacy at Seed | Never Turn Down a Deal on Price with Martin Mignot, Partner @ Index Ventures

20VC: Figma, Scale, Wiz: Inside Index's Decacorn Factory | Decision-Making, Investment Process, Biggest Lessons, Biggest Misses | Why Gross Margin is a Fallacy at Seed | Never Turn Down a Deal on Price with Martin Mignot, Partner @ Index Ventures

Martin Mignot is a Partner at Index Ventures, the best-performing fund in the world right now. In the last three months, they have sold Wiz for $ 32 billion, sold Scale for $14.9 billion, and IPO'd Fi...

11 Elo 20251h 19min

20VC: The $BN Greenoaks Backed Protein Bar | Hitting $100M Revenues in David's First Year: Lessons & Mistakes | $0 to $600M: The Untold RXBAR Story | Product-Market-Fit, Pricing, Branding: What Every Founder Gets Wrong Today with Peter Rahal

20VC: The $BN Greenoaks Backed Protein Bar | Hitting $100M Revenues in David's First Year: Lessons & Mistakes | $0 to $600M: The Untold RXBAR Story | Product-Market-Fit, Pricing, Branding: What Every Founder Gets Wrong Today with Peter Rahal

Peter Rahal is the Co‑Founder & CEO of David Protein, the highest protein‑to‑calorie ratio for any protein bar on the market. Peter has raised over $85M from Greenoaks, Dr. Peter Attia and Dr. Andrew ...

8 Elo 20251h 6min

20VC: Figma's 250% Pop - The Greatest IPO Mispricing Ever | Meta and Microsoft Blowout Quarters: Broken Down | Cognition Raises at $15BN and Ramp at $22BN | CRV Downsizing and What It Means for LPs and GPs

20VC: Figma's 250% Pop - The Greatest IPO Mispricing Ever | Meta and Microsoft Blowout Quarters: Broken Down | Cognition Raises at $15BN and Ramp at $22BN | CRV Downsizing and What It Means for LPs and GPs

Agenda: 00:00 – The Worst IPO Mis-Pricing Ever: What Really Happened at Figma 02:30 – Fidelity vs Founders: How Important is Fidelity When Going Public 07:00 – Why Founders Secretly Want a Pop, Even I...

7 Elo 20251h 20min

20Sales: $0-$3.7BN: The Databricks CRO's Playbook to Build the Fastest GTM Engine in SaaS History | How Databricks Beat Snowflake | How To Build a Sales Org of 5,000 and Close $190M Deals with Ron Gabrisko

20Sales: $0-$3.7BN: The Databricks CRO's Playbook to Build the Fastest GTM Engine in SaaS History | How Databricks Beat Snowflake | How To Build a Sales Org of 5,000 and Close $190M Deals with Ron Gabrisko

Ron Gabrisko is the Chief Revenue Officer at Databricks, where he joined in 2016. Under his leadership, Databricks has scaled from $0 to $3.7BN annualized revenue. He has grown the sales team from 0 t...

4 Elo 20251h 15min

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