The Macro Trading Floor31 Heinä 2022

Shorting The Nasdaq With Butterfly Spreads | Dean Curnutt

Dean is looking at shorting the Nasdaq 100 ETF ($QQQ) by using a "butterfly" spread. He wants to fade a Fed pivot (he wants to bet against the consensus that the Fed will reverse course and loosen policy) by shorting duration-sensitive equities such as those in the Nasdaq. -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Dean: https://twitter.com/Alpha_Ex_LLC Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Understanding The Fed's Meeting (06:27) Top Stories Of The Week (10:28) DAS NYC (12:14) Feature Interview with Dean Curnutt (17:20) Demand Destruction (22:50) Why Is Implied Volatility So Low? (36:14) The Macro Trade: The NASDAQ Butterfly (41:51) What If The Trade Is Wrong? (51:12) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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Jaksot(140)

Macro Blowups Everywhere - What Now?

Alf and Brent are back to discuss the various macro blowups we are witnessing simultaneously: French spreads, front-end of the bond market, mortgage-backed securities, EM carry and so on. What's the b...

2 Loka 38min

On Bessent, Gold & Idiosyncratic Trades

Alf and Brent are back to discuss the Bessent buyback plan and its impact on markets. The duo focuses on gold, the long-end and the USD as potential release valves. The discussion then moves to two ma...

28 Elo 35min

On Sizing Options, The Fed and The JPY

In this episode, Alf and Brent talk about the Fed's likely reaction function to incoming data and the Bessent/Japan accord on the JPY. The duo then discusses one of the trickiest questions for macro P...

9 Elo 37min

Warsh Woke Up The Bond Vigilantes

Alf and Brent discuss the significant market reaction to Warsh's press conference: the Fed handed over the keys to the bond market, and now Bond Vigilantes are in charge until data comes in to set the...

31 Heinä 38min

The Orange Variable

Brent and Alf discuss the n-th injection of the Orange Variable in markets: Trump decided to escalate again with Iran, and even suggested the ceasefire might be over altogether. The duo discusses how ...

10 Heinä 35min

The Rebasement Trade

Alf and Brent discuss the major market shifts since the Warsh press conference. Is this a big macro shift or just a mini-trend that will ultimately slow down or even reverse?

26 Kesä 30min

The Inflation Ghost, Gold and Options

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG) To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com (or Brent Donnelly on BBG) In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss the...

22 Touko 37min