The Art of No Deal

Episode #375: “Don’t fall for the junta's attempt to try to propagandize!” says Derek Mitchell, former U.S. ambassador to Myanmar. In this interview, he assesses U.S. strategy under the Trump administration, focusing on recent sanctions “de-listings” that have raised concern.

Regarding the de-listings, Mitchell believes that the they were a bureaucratic decision, not a strategic one. “It could be the left hand didn't know what the right hand was doing,” he says, pointing to the hollowed-out National Security Council and lack of interagency coordination. Ultimately, he sees no change in the overall U.S. sanctions policy towards the junta.

Another key issue involves Myanmar’s important rare earth deposits, which have caught the White House’s attention. Mitchell doubts this will translate into meaningful policy change, however, stressing that the deposits lie in conflict zones largely outside junta control and that only China has the capacity to process them. He argues that working through the junta is “a fool’s errand” and instead calls for engagement with ethnic forces and the democratic resistance.

The junta is trying to spin the de-listings and some recent symbolic gestures into a narrative of growing international legitimacy and a change in US-Myanmar relations. The resistance rejects this, pointing to continued sanctions, congressional backing, and senior U.S. officials condemning the junta’s planned elections as a sham. Mitchell sides with the resistance, calling the junta’s spin mere propaganda from a losing side.

Mitchell warns against viewing Myanmar solely through a U.S.-China lens, which “reduces the country to a pawn,” and urges sustained, careful engagement—including the appointment of a special envoy. “If we can do something in their interest to bring dignity to the people of this country,” he concludes, “that will automatically serve the strategic interests of the United States over time.”