Where Will Humanity Move When the World Gets Too Hot? Mass Climate Migration & The Rise of Uninhabitable Regions with Sunil Amrith

(Recorded December 16, 2024) As we wrap up another year of thought-provoking discussions on The Great Simplification, Nate takes us on an imaginative journey in this week's Frankly - exploring a potential movie script idea that blends systems, science and fiction. What if someone who deeply understood the challenges of today's global economic Superorganism could travel back in time? Armed with the knowledge of our current ecological and economic trajectory, what would they change? What could they change? Hollywood media could serve as a powerful tool to educate and inspire a wider audience on the systems science of our current predicament. Unpacking his movie idea, Nate shows us how the interventions highlighted - even if sci-fi - could educate audiences about the complex dynamics which have shaped the issues we now face. Through key character developments, we explore the constraints imposed by the path dependency of the Superorganism, realities about aggregate human behavior, and where degrees of freedom might exist to shift the trajectory of the future - in service of life. If you could travel back through time to the 1970s (or to any date), how would YOU intervene to shape the future? Could education, regenerative ecology, or "Superorganism-free zones" alter the trajectory of civilization? And more broadly, how might Hollywood still play a role in translating the systems science towards providing agency to the general public? Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Discord channel and connect with other listeners

20 Joulu 202418min

(Conversation recorded on November 7th, 2024) Long-time listeners of The Great Simplification may have a good grasp of the many impending crises that humanity faces. But once we understand the scope of this predicament, what changes could we make to prepare in our own communities right now? Today, Nate is joined by local organizer and activist Christian Sawyer, to discuss how he's built a pro-social community in rural Arizona. Christian emphasizes the power of local collaboration and demonstrates how the cultivation of social capital builds resilience in the face of challenges, as well as creates better lives for those who live in the community. Together, Nate and Christian explore the dynamics of community work parties, the skills learned through cooperation, and the significance of trust and friendship in building a supportive network. What do aspects of The Great Simplification look like in action? What are the most common challenges faced in group settings, and what lessons can it teach about the values of love, wisdom, and art in fostering meaningful connections? How can anyone, anywhere start creating local initiatives and engaging with ecological awareness? When fostering community, why should we emphasize empowering individuals in order to solve local problems and advocate towards the protection of our most important resources? About Christian Sawyer: Christian Sawyer is a local organizer, community lobbyist, sustainable home builder, musician, researcher, and groundwater activist in rural southeast Arizona. He is a journalist for the Arizona Agenda, as well as for Ground Party Papers, a local newsletter for alternative, off-grid, sustainable lifestyles. Join Christian's Local Sensemaking Slack Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Discord channel and connect with other listeners

18 Joulu 20241h 10min

(Recorded December 5, 2024) It's not everyday that a stranger thanks you for 'ruining their life'. In this heartfelt Frankly, Nate reflects on a powerful encounter with a venture capitalist whose life was upended - and ultimately enriched - after immersing himself in the full content of The Great Simplification podcast. This man's journey from techno-optimism to a deeper understanding of the limits of infinite growth on a finite planet shines a light on the purpose of this channel: to inspire and equip curious, prosocial individuals to channel their skills and creativity toward building a future that's better than the default. Nate shares an email from this listener, detailing the emotional and intellectual wrestling match of confronting uncomfortable truths. From sleepless nights to moments of clarity, this journey underscores the transformative power of knowledge - not just to inform, but to empower action, shifting us from passive consumers of content to active creators of responses. What does it feel like to be confronted with the uncomfortable realities of the systems synthesis? Is it worth it? And are you ready to join a growing community of changemakers leaning into this challenge? Watch this video episode on YouTube --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Discord channel and connect with other listeners

13 Joulu 202411min

(Conversation recorded on November 5th, 2024) It is no secret that population dynamics significantly impact global stability. But what's really behind today's shifting global birth trends, the increased need for medically-assisted pregnancy, and the changing age demographics of industrialized nations? Furthermore, what are the implications of these shifts for future economic security? Today, Nate is joined by investment strategist Jeremy Grantham to discuss the critical but underreported issues surrounding toxicity and public health – particularly endocrine disruptors and their impact on human fertility, longevity, and societal structures. In this important conversation, Jeremy highlights the ubiquitousness of toxicity in our modern environments, the cultural and economic factors contributing to declining fertility rates, and the urgent need to transition to non-toxic materials and energy sources. In what ways could population decline pose serious economic challenges, particularly in aging societies? How might the alarming drop in sperm count affect future policies on immigration? Finally, how can we detoxify both our environments – and capitalism – before it's too late? About Jeremy Grantham: Jeremy Grantham co-founded GMO in 1977 and is a member of GMO's Asset Allocation team, serving as the firm's long-term investment strategist. He is a member of the GMO Board of Directors, a partner of the firm, and has also served on the investment boards of several non-profit organizations. Additionally in 1989, Jeremy co-founded the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment. Prior to GMO's founding, Mr. Grantham was co-founder of Batterymarch Financial Management in 1969 where he recommended commercial indexing in 1971, one of several claims to being first. He began his investment career as an economist with Royal Dutch Shell. Mr. Grantham earned his undergraduate degree from the University of Sheffield (U.K.) and an MBA from Harvard Business School. He is a member of the Academy of Arts and Sciences, holds a CBE from the UK and is a recipient of the Carnegie Medal for Philanthropy. Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Discord channel and connect with other listeners

11 Joulu 20241h 47min

(Conversation recorded on December 2nd, 2024) One of the central ecological challenges of our time is addressing the plastic and petrochemical pollution that has exploded over the past several decades. This global issue will require the cooperation of all nations. But based on the disintegration of UN negotiations for a treaty on plastic pollution last Sunday, this is easier said than done. In this special episode, Nate is joined by toxicologist Jane Muncke, who provides an in-depth analysis following the final day of discussions in Busan, South Korea. Together, they explore the complex intergovernmental negotiations that have defined the treaty process, as well as the environmental and health policies that have shaped these conversations in recent years. Will we ever be able to place chemical safety and public health above economic motivations at the global level? Could increased public awareness of the way these seemingly convenient products affect our health and well-being finally shut off the plastic tap? Finally, is it possible for the treaty to go beyond waste management and recycling, to instead move towards reducing the production and consumption of plastics at the source? About Jane Muncke: Jane Muncke holds a doctorate degree in environmental toxicology and a MSc in environmental science from the ETH Zurich. Since 2012 she has been working as Managing Director and Chief Scientific Officer at the charitable Food Packaging Forum Foundation (FPF) in Zurich, Switzerland. FPF is a research and science communication organization focusing on chemicals in all types of food contact materials. Jane Muncke is a full scientific member of the Society of Toxicology (SOT), the Society for Environmental Chemistry and Toxicology (SETAC), the American Chemical Society (ACS) and the Endocrine Society. Since 2019, she has been an elected expert member of the Swiss Organic Farming Association Bio Suisse's committee on trade and processing where she contributes to further developing the standards for processing and packaging of organic food. She is a director of the FAN initiative, a collective of experts warning about resource overshoot, the polycrisis, and related societal collapse. Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Discord channel and connect with other listeners

8 Joulu 202447min

(Recorded November 26, 2024) As we piece together the different facets of our reality, the systems synthesis which emerges confronts us with some uncomfortable truths. These are the advanced inferences rooted in the logic of The Great Simplification. They have important implications for our expectations about the future and how we should respond in the present. In this Frankly, Nate revisits some key messages from this channel and delves into some of the more challenging takeaways. The logic of the Superorganism reveals why narrow focus on solutions while extrapolating current trends will be insufficient for addressing the most important issues of our time and why these will increasingly have to be championed proactively, creatively and indirectly instead. As the biophysical and social limits to growth become harder to ignore, The Great Simplification synthesis points us to a more realistic portrait of the future: one of less for the 'median' human. Facing these realities is neither easy nor pleasant, but as more people arrive at a species-level conversation, it is necessary. Only by doing so can we look and plan several steps ahead to change the initial conditions of the future, in service of life. In what ways are free markets and technology 'false gods'? How does the metabolic hierarchy of the Superorganism dictate what gets prioritised in global decision making? And what speed bumps lie ahead on the road to The Great Simplification? Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Discord channel and connect with other listeners

6 Joulu 202420min

(Conversation recorded on October 22nd, 2024) The human system as we know it today – which powers our economies, global supply chains, and social contracts – is a fragile network based on innumerable complex components. Yet we rarely stop to recognize its many vulnerabilities, instead taking for granted that it will continue to securely operate indefinitely. But if we take a more careful look, how can we assess the risks of major catastrophic events that could destroy life as we know it? Today, Nate is joined by Luke Kemp, a researcher whose work is focused on existential risks (or X-risks), which encompass threats of human extinction, societal collapse, and dystopian futures. How can we begin to understand the likelihood and gravity of these ruinous events, and what kinds of responses from people and governments could further undermine social cohesion and resilience? What roles do human biases, hierarchical power structures, and the development of technologies, like artificial intelligence and geoengineering, play in X-risks? How can we collaborate across industries to protect our modern systems through effective risk management strategies? And in what ways do our institutions need to become more inclusive to better democratize decision-making processes, leading to safer futures for humanity? About Luke Kemp: Luke is a Research Affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) and Darwin College at the University of Cambridge. His research focuses on understanding the history and future of extreme global risk. Luke has advised the WHO and multiple international institutions, and his work has been covered by media outlets such as the BBC, New York Times, and the New Yorker. He holds both a Doctorate in International Relations and a Bachelor of Interdisciplinary Studies with first class honours from the Australian National University (ANU). His first book on the deep history and future of societal collapse (titled Goliath's Curse) will be published with Penguin in June 2025. Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Discord channel and connect with other listeners

4 Joulu 20241h 41min

(Recorded November 21, 2024) Two weeks ago, in a Frankly called The Battles of Our Time, Nate commented on human behavior and said that, in today's world, only three to four percent of humans are going to do the right thing and appeal to the 'better angels' of their nature. Today's Frankly is a follow-up and clarification of what he meant. It's true that humans are deeply influenced by our evolutionary past. It is also true that our current economic structures, cultural norms, and the inner workings of the superorganism shape our actions. But the majority of our history as a species paints a more optimistic picture than our current behavior might suggest. If we take a deeper time lens, it becomes obvious that, in order to navigate the challenges of the future, perhaps we need not look to technological innovation – but instead must return to the intrinsic values and pro-social nature of our past. Ultimately, we as individuals, and as a species, are plastic. The biggest predictor of our behavior is conforming to what others do, and what others do is going to change in the future… because it must. Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Discord channel and connect with other listeners

29 Marras 20249min