Samim Ghamami on the Treasury Markets Impact on the Future Path of Interest Rates and Inflation

Noah Smith is a former columnist for Bloomberg and is now a popular writer at his own Noahpinion Substack. Noah is also a returning guest to the podcast, and rejoins Macro Musings for a wide ranging discussion on some of the recent issues he’s been covering on his Substack, including China, social change in the US, recent macro developments, and much more. Noah and David also discuss the façade of Xi Jinping’s leadership, the elite overproduction hypothesis, how Fukuyama’s *End of History* thesis can be applied today, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Noah’s Substack: Noahpinion Noah’s Bloomberg archive Noah’s Twitter: @Noahpinion   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here, and use the promo code NGDP for 10% off!   Related Links:   *The Elite Overproduction Hypothesis* by Noah Smith   *Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China* by Hal Brands and Michael Beckley   *Book Review: “Danger Zone”* by Noah Smith   *Is China Heading Toward Another Tiananmen Square Moment?* by Lili Pike and Tom Nagorski

5 Joulu 202248min

Hugh Rockoff is a professor of economics at Rutgers University and has done extensive work in U.S. monetary history. He joins the show to discuss the criteria for an ideal monetary union and argues that the U.S. didn’t really become an optimal currency area until the 1930s. David and Hugh then discuss whether a present-day example, the Eurozone, fits these criteria. They also talk about interesting chapters in U.S. monetary history, including the Civil War, the Free Banking Era, and the bimetallism debate of the late 1800s.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Check out our new Macro Musings merch here, and use the promo code NGDP for 10% off!   Hugh’s Rutgers profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:    *History of the American Economy* by Hugh Rockoff and Gary Walton   *How Long Did It Take the United States to Become an Optimal Currency Area?* by Hugh Rockoff   *"The Wizard of Oz" as a Monetary Allegory* by Hugh Rockoff   *The Free Banking Era: A Re-Examination* by Hugh Rockoff

28 Marras 202243min

In this special episode of Macro Musings, David Beckworth and Patrick Horan join guest host Carola Binder to discuss their newest paper, *The Fate of FAIT: Salvaging the Fed’s Framework.* Patrick Horan is a research fellow in the Mercatus Center’s Monetary Policy Program and Carola Binder is an associate professor of economics at Haverford College as well as a visiting scholar at the Mercatus Center. In addition to their paper, Pat and David also talk about the basics of flexible average inflation targeting, how it compares to temporary price level targeting, the differences between the Fed’s old and new frameworks, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Check out our new Macro Musings merch here, and use the promo code NGDP for 10% off!   Patrick’s Twitter: @Pat_Horan92 Patrick’s Mercatus profile   Carola’s Twitter: @cconces Carola’s Haverford site Carola’s Mercatus profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *The Fate of FAIT: Salvaging the Fed’s Framework* by David Beckworth and Patrick Horan   *2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy* by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors   *Fed Framework Holds Central Bank Hostage* by Mohamed El-Erian   *Nominal GDP Targeting and the Taylor Rule on an Even Playing Field* by David Beckworth and Josh Hendrickson

21 Marras 202251min

Ethan Ilzetzki is an associate professor of economics at the London School of Economics and a research fellow with the Center for Economic Policy Research. Ethan is also a returning guest to the show, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the international implications of Fed Policy and the strong dollars as well as Ethan’s thoughts on business cycle theory in light of the recent inflation surge. David and Ethan also discuss Ethan’s takeaways from the UK crisis, how to evaluate and contextualize monetary policy shocks, the contemporary applications of the fiscal theory of the price level, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Check out our new Macro Musings merch here, and use the promo code NGDP for 10% off!   Ethan’s Twitter: @ilzetzki Ethan’s website Ethan’s LSE profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *UK Financial Crisis of 2022: Retrospective Diagnosis and Policy Recommendations* by Ethan Ilzetzki   *Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?* by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff   *Inflation as a Fiscal Limit* by Francesco Bianchi and Leonardo Melosi   *The Global Financial Cycle* by Helene Rey and Silvia Miranda-Agrippino

14 Marras 202257min

Megan Greene is a senior fellow at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University and is the global chief economist at Kroll. Megan is also a contributing editor and columnist for the Financial Times and is a returning guest to the podcast. She rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about a recent article she has written titled, *UK Market Turmoil is a Harbinger of Global Events to Come.* David and Megan also discuss the basics of what caused the UK’s recent crisis, how persistent inflation continues to impact the global economy, the current outlook for international energy production, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Megan’s website Megan’s Kroll profile Megan’s Twitter: @economistmeg   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *UK Market Turmoil is a Harbinger of Global Events to Come* by Megan Greene   *The World is Starting to Hate the Fed* by Edward Luce

7 Marras 202246min

Yesha Yadav is a law professor and associate dean of Vanderbilt Law School. Yesha works on banking and financial regulation, securities regulation, the law of money and payment system, and is a returning guest to the podcast. She rejoins Macro Musings to talk about recent developments in the Treasury market and the prospects for reform. David and Yesha also discuss the future of CBDC in the US, the recent economic crisis in the UK, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Yesha’s Vanderbilt Law profile: https://law.vanderbilt.edu/bio/yesha-yadav Yesha’s Google Scholar archive: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Dn5cmSQAAAAJ&hl=en   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *The Failed Promise of Treasuries in Financial Regulation* by Yesha Yadav and Pradeep Yadav   *The Broken Bond Market* by Yesha Yadav and Jonathan Brogaard   *Markets Didn’t Oust Truss. The Bank of England Did.* by Narayana Kocherlakota   *Treasuries Liquidity Problem Exposes Fed to ‘Biggest Nightmare’* by Liz McCormick   *Yellen Flags Potential for Buybacks of Treasury Securities* by Christopher Condon   *The Squeeze That Has the US Treasury Thinking About Buying Back Bonds* by Alexandra Harris   *Hedge Funds Facing Tighter SEC Clearing Rules for Treasuries* by Lydia Beyoud and Alexandra Harris   *Geithner-Led Group Faults Fed for Slow Work on Treasuries Market* by Liz McCormick   *All-to-All Trading in the U.S. Treasury Market* by the New York Fed staff   *Toby Nangle on What We Just Learned From Gilt Market Madness* by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal

31 Loka 202254min

Peter Ganong is an associate professor at the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago. He joins David on Macro Musings to talk about his work on the dynamism and resiliency of the US economy. Peter and David also discuss the income convergence story in the US, how to address increased housing costs, the economic effects of pandemic response measures, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Peter’s Twitter: @p_ganong Peter’s UChicago profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *Why Has Regional Income Convergence in the U.S. Declined?* by Peter Ganong and Daniel Shoag   *Why Do Borrowers Default on Mortgages? A New Method for Causal Attribution* by Peter Ganong and Pascal Noel   *Liquidity Versus Wealth in Household Debt Obligations: Evidence from Housing Policy in the Great Recession* by Peter Ganong and Pascal Noel   *Spending and Job Search Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data* by Peter Ganong, Fiona Greig, Pascal Noel, Daniel Sullivan, and Joseph Vavra   *Housing Demand and Remote Work* by John Mondragon and Johannes Wieland   *Household Income & Spending* Research by the JPMorgan Chase Institute

24 Loka 202252min

Bill Nelson is the chief economist and executive vice president at the Bank Policy Institute. He previously worked as a deputy director of the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board, where his responsibilities included monetary policy analysis, discount window policy analysis, and financial institution supervision. Bill has also worked closely with the BIS working groups on the design of liquidity regulations and is a returning guest of the podcast. He rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about his new note that is titled, *Bank Examiner Preferences are Obstructing Monetary Policy*. David and Bill also discuss how the Fed’s forward guidance is affecting recent market turmoil, how to change the mindset of bank examiners and the public, why the Fed should look into establishing a committed liquidity facility, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Bill’s BPI profile BPI’s Twitter: @bankpolicy   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox   Related Links:   *Bank Examiner Preferences are Obstructing Monetary Policy* by Bill Nelson   *Quantifying the Costs and Benefits of Quantitative Easing* by Andrew Levin, Brian Lu, and Bill Nelson   FRED Graph: *Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Earnings Remittances Due to the U.S. Treasury: Wednesday Level*   *The Global Financial Cycle* by Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Helene Rey

17 Loka 202249min