Samim Ghamami on the Treasury Markets Impact on the Future Path of Interest Rates and Inflation

Kaleb Nygaard is a senior research associate at the Yale Program on Financial Stability and runs the website Centralverse, a place where all things central banking are made clear. Kaleb is also a former Chicago Fed staffer. Kaleb joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the governance and institutional details of the Federal Reserve System. Specifically, Kaleb and David get into President Biden’s nominations to the Fed Board of Governors, the nomination process at the Fed, what is driving the short tenures of Fed Governors in recent years, how regional bank presidents get elected, how social media has impacted the problem of groupthink at the Fed, and much more.   Check out Ideas of India: https://www.discoursemagazine.com/tag/ideas-of-india-podcast/, and subscribe to Ideas of India on your favorite podcast app.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Kaleb’s Twitter: @KalebNygaard Kaleb’s website: https://kalebnygaard.com/   Related Links:   *Restoring the Promise of Federal Reserve Governance* by Peter Conti-Brown https://www.mercatus.org/publications/monetary-policy/restoring-promise-fed-governance   *Board Diversity Matters: An Empirical Assessment of Community Lending at Federal Reserve-Regulated Banks* by Brian D. Feinstein, Peter Conti-Brown, and Kaleb Nygaard https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4000110   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

21 Maalis 202255min

Bill Nelson is a chief economist and an executive vice president at the Bank Policy Institute. Bill was previously a deputy director of the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board, where his responsibilities included monetary policy analysis, discount window policy analysis, and the analysis and financial institution supervision. He also worked closely with the BIS working groups on the design of liquidity regulations. Bill is also a previous guest of the podcast, are rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the outlook for US monetary policy, the future of the Fed’s balance sheet, and its implications for the Fed’s operating system and bank regulations. David and Bill also discuss the Fed’s response to current macroeconomic events, the stigma surround the standing repo facility, and how to think about exogenous risks to the US banking system.    Check out Conversations with Tyler: https://conversationswithtyler.com, and subscribe to Conversations with Tyler on your favorite podcast app.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Bill’s Bank Policy Institute profile: https://bpi.com/people/bill-nelson/ Bill’s American Banker archive: https://www.americanbanker.com/author/william-nelson-ab3618   Related Links:   *The Fed is Stuck on the Floor: Here’s How It Can Get Up* by Bill Nelson https://bpi.com/the-fed-is-stuck-on-the-floor-heres-how-it-can-get-up/   *More Taxis Sitting Idle* by Bill Nelson https://bpi.com/more-taxis-sitting-idle/   *Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks* by Ben Bernanke, Mark Gertler, and Mark Watson https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/1997/01/1997a_bpea_bernanke_gertler_watson_sims_friedman.pdf   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

14 Maalis 202256min

Matthew Klein is the author of The Overshoot, a newsletter that helps readers make sense of the global economy. Matthew also closely follows Eastern Europe and Russia, has written on the economics of the Russian-Ukraine War, and is a returning guest to the podcast. Matthew rejoins David on Macro Musings to discuss this conflict and its broader economic implications. Specifically, Matthew and David discuss the historical context dating back to the Soviet Union and leading up to this conflict, how Russia’s economy has been historically linked to Ukraine’s, the consequences of Europe’s reliance on Russian fossil fuel exports, and the implications of global sanctions against Russia for dollar dominance, globalization, and inflation.   Check out Ideas of India: https://www.discoursemagazine.com/tag/ideas-of-india-podcast/, and subscribe to Ideas of India on your favorite podcast app.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Matthew’s Twitter: @M_C_Klein Matthew’s Substack: https://theovershoot.co/about   Related Links:   *Trade Wars or Class Wars* by Matthew C. Klein and Michael Pettis https://www.amazon.com/Trade-Wars-Are-Class-International/dp/0300244177   *Russia Was Already Cutting Off Europe's Gas Before Invading Ukraine. What Can Be Done?* by Matthew Klein https://theovershoot.co/p/russia-was-already-cutting-off-europes?s=r   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

7 Maalis 202254min

Emily Hamilton is a senior research fellow and director of the Urbanity Project at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Emily’s research focuses on urban economics and land use policy, and she joins Macro Musings to talk about housing in the United States. Specifically, David and Emily discuss many of the issues present within the American housing market, why we should care about rampant housing shortages, and the most effective avenues we can pursue for largescale reform.   Check out Conversations with Tyler: https://conversationswithtyler.com, and subscribe to Conversations with Tyler on your favorite podcast app.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Emily’s Twitter: @ebwhamilton Emily’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/emily-hamilton   Related Links:   *Light Touch Density: A Series of Policy Briefs on Zoning, Land Use, and a Solution to Help Alleviate the Nation’s Housing Shortage* by Edward Pinto, Tobias Peter, and Emily Hamilton https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Light-Touch-Density-Compiled-FINAL-1.12.2022.pdf?x91208   *2019 Survey of Consumer Finances* by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scfindex.htm   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

28 Helmi 202258min

William Diamond is an Assistant Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Will joins David on Macro Musings to discuss safe assets, convenience yields, bubbles and public debt and the implications for policy. Specifically, David and Will get into competing theories of interest rates and the rise of New Keynesian thinking, the role of the dollar in the global financial system, the drivers behind the growth in US debt, how the construction of risk-free interest rates unaffected by convenience yields on safe assets can improve our understanding of the financial system in times of stress, and much more.   Check out Ideas of India: https://www.discoursemagazine.com/tag/ideas-of-india-podcast/, and subscribe to Ideas of India on your favorite podcast app.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Will’s Twitter: @wdiamond_econ Will’s Wharton profile: https://fnce.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/diamondw/#research   Related Links:   *Threats to Central Bank Independence: High-Frequency Identification with Twitter* by Francesco Bianchi, Thilo Kind & Howard Kung https://www.nber.org/papers/w26308   *Safety Transformation and the Structure of the Financial System* by Will Diamond https://faculty.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/modelwriteupnew23.pdf   *From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: The US External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege* by Helene Ray and P.O. Gourinchas https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=788428   *Rational Bubbles and Public Debt Policy: A Quantitative Analysis* by David Domeij and Tore Ellingsen https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304393218301909   *Liquidity Premiums on Government Debt and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level* by Aleksander Berentsen and Christopher J. Waller https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2943241   *Risk Free Interest Rates* by Jules H. van Binsbergen, Will Diamond, and Marco Grotteria https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3242836   *Risk-Free Rates and Convenience Yields Around the World* by Will Diamond, Peter Van Tassel https://faculty.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/newdraft_11132021formatfix.pdf   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

21 Helmi 20221h 5min

Amanda Rose is a professor at Vanderbilt Law School where she works as a scholar on securities law and the institutional design of the regulatory regimes enforcing those laws. Amanda joins Macro Musings to talk about the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), its work and role in promoting financial stability, and her research on the SEC. Amanda and David specifically discuss the politics, governance, and politicization of the SEC, the mission of the agency, and the major issues that it must face moving forward.   Check out Conversations with Tyler: https://conversationswithtyler.com, and subscribe to Conversations with Tyler on your favorite podcast app.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Amanda’s Vanderbilt Law profile: https://law.vanderbilt.edu/bio/amanda-rose   Related Links:   *Calculating SEC Whistleblower Awards: A Theoretical Approach* by Amanda Rose https://scholarship.law.vanderbilt.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2143&context=faculty-publications   *SPAC Mergers, IPOs, and the PSLRA’s Safe Harbor: Unpacking Claims of Regulatory Arbitrage* by Amanda Rose https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3945975   *A Response to Calls for SEC-Mandated ESG Disclosure* by Amanda Rose https://openscholarship.wustl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=6545&context=law_lawreview   *Should the Securities and Exchange Commission Adopt a Mandatory ESG-Disclosure Framework?* by Amanda Rose https://www.mercatus.org/publications/financial-markets/should-securities-and-exchange-commission-adopt-mandatory-esg   *SEC Announces Enforcement Results for FY 2021* by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2021-238   *The Chickenshit Club: Why the Justice Department Fails to Prosecute Executives* by Jesse Eisinger https://www.sandmanbooks.com/book/9781501121371   *Can NFTs Be Securities? The SEC Says Yes* by PYMNTS https://www.pymnts.com/nfts/2022/pymnts-nft-series-can-nfts-be-securities-the-sec-says-yes/   *Crypto Exchanges Will Face More Scrutiny, Says SEC Chair* by Rahul Nambiampurath https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-exchanges-face-more-scrutiny-150149395.html#:~:text=SEC%20Chair%20Gary%20Gensler%20has,world%20are%20scrutinizing%20crypto%20exchanges.   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

14 Helmi 202254min

Dan Alpert is an investment banker and a founding Managing Partner of Westwood Capital. He also regularly writes and speaks on big macro-structural issues. Dan joins David on Macro Musings to discuss recent macroeconomic events. Specifically, Dan and David discuss a post-Keynesian account of the global safe asset shortage, the impact of the US policy response to COVID-19, whether inflation will remain a problem heading into 2022, what’s driving the ‘Great Resignation’, whether capital assets are overvalued, and much more.   Check out Ideas of India: https://www.discoursemagazine.com/tag/ideas-of-india-podcast/, and subscribe to Ideas of India on your favorite podcast app.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Dan’s Twitter: @DanielAlpert Dan’s Westwood Capital profile: http://www.westwoodcapital.com/ourpeople/daniel-alpert/   Related Links:   *The Age of Oversupply: Overcoming the Greatest Challenge to the Global Economy* by Dan Alpert https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/312886/the-age-of-oversupply-by-daniel-alpert/    *Glut, The US Economy and American Worker In The Age Of Oversupply* by Dan Alpert https://www.thirdway.org/report/glut-the-u-s-economy-and-the-american-worker-in-the-age-of-oversupply   *Inflation In The 21st Century* by Dan Alpert https://scholarship.law.cornell.edu/facpub/1740/   *The Way Forward: Moving from the Post-Bubble, Post-Bust Economy to Renewed Growth and Competitiveness* by Dan Alpert, Robert C. Hockett, and Nouriel Roubini https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1987139   *Marc Lavoie on Canadian Central Bank Policy, Real-time Payments, and the Post-Keynesian Tradition* https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/02032020/marc-lavoie-canadian-central-bank-policy-real-time-payments-and-post   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

7 Helmi 202247min

Lubos Pastor is a professor of finance, and Elisabeth Kempf is an associate professor of finance, both at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. They join David on Macro Musings to talk about their recent paper, *Fifty Shades of QE: Comparing Findings of Central Bankers and Academics*. Lubos, Elisabeth, and David specifically discuss the scope, design, and findings of their study, the theory behind QE’s impact on output and inflation, the career implications of QE research, and more.   Check out Conversations with Tyler: https://conversationswithtyler.com, and subscribe to Conversations with Tyler on your favorite podcast app.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Lubos’s University of Chicago profile: https://www.chicagobooth.edu/faculty/directory/p/lubos-pastor Lubos’s NBER archive: https://www.nber.org/people/lubos_pastor?page=1&perPage=50   Elisabeth’s University of Chicago Profile: https://www.chicagobooth.edu/faculty/directory/k/elisabeth-kempf Elisabeth’s website: https://sites.google.com/site/elikempf/   Related Links:   *Fifty Shades of QE: Comparing Findings of Central Bankers and Academics* by Lubos Pastor, Elisabeth Kempf, Brian Fabo, and Martina Jancokova https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27849/w27849.pdf   *The Federal Reserve System’s Influence on Research in Monetary Economics* by Lawrence H. White https://econjwatch.org/File+download/90/2005-08-white-invest_apparatus.pdf?mimetype=pdf   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

31 Tammi 202243min