164: Expectancy vs. Win Rate: What Really Matters

164: Expectancy vs. Win Rate: What Really Matters

In this episode of the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast, Eric dives into the concept of expectancy—a key metric that blends win rate, average win size, and average loss size into one number that helps traders understand whether a strategy has a real edge over the long run.

We break down why a high win rate alone doesn’t guarantee profits (think 98% win rate ads…), and how expectancy provides better context by showing how much you can expect to make or lose per trade on average. Eric also shares updates inside Alpha Crunching: the Trade Ideas tab now includes expectancy alongside win rate, giving subscribers deeper insight when sorting potential setups for the week.

You’ll also hear about future enhancements—like adding average win and loss values—so traders can better gauge risk-reward and decide which setups fit their personal style.

👉 Try Alpha Crunching for yourself and get 50% off your first month here: https://alphacrunching.com

Jaksot(177)

137: SPY Call Buying Strategy Research(53% Win Rate, 2:1 Risk Reward)

137: SPY Call Buying Strategy Research(53% Win Rate, 2:1 Risk Reward)

In this episode, we explore a SPY call-buying strategy with a 53% win rate and a 2:1 risk-reward ratio. This strategy, built on data and technical analysis, is designed for consistent execution and me...

16 Tammi 20257min

136: The Most Important Skill in Options Trading (And Why Many Ignore It)

136: The Most Important Skill in Options Trading (And Why Many Ignore It)

Position Sizing: The overlooked key to options trading success.I had a great discussion with John Einar from ThetaProfits.com where discussed one of the most overlooked aspects of trading which is pos...

6 Tammi 202528min

135: This Week In The S&P500

135: This Week In The S&P500

Get more S&P500 insights at https://www.AlphaCrunching.com/blogEconomic events, options positioning, and technical indicators to get your ready for the week. Join me next week as we navigate the stock...

16 Joulu 202410min

134: This Week In The S&P500

134: This Week In The S&P500

Get more S&P500 insights at https://www.AlphaCrunching.com/blogEconomic events, options positioning, and technical indicators to get your ready for the week. Join me next week as we navigate the stock...

9 Joulu 202410min

133: SPX vs. SPY: 10 Major Differences

133: SPX vs. SPY: 10 Major Differences

10 Major Differences Between SPY and SPX OptionsSPY and SPX give you exposure to the S&P 500, but these options have key differences you should know before getting started.Paying DividendsSPX does not...

6 Joulu 20247min

132: Options Position Sizing Case Study

132: Options Position Sizing Case Study

In this special Thanksgiving episode of the SMOT podcast, I want to take a moment to say thank you for being a dedicated listener. Wishing you and your family the very best this holiday season!Today, ...

25 Marras 202414min

131: All Time Stock Market Highs! Now What?

131: All Time Stock Market Highs! Now What?

In this episode, we'll cover some thoughts at what to think about the market here has we're hitting new all time highs post US Election. We've got several key economic reports coming this week too aro...

11 Marras 202417min

130: GOOGL Earnings Trade Success

130: GOOGL Earnings Trade Success

In this episode, I walk through my recent GOOGL earning trade in which I held shares into the earnings event but added a risk free collar trade for protection. As you'll hear, the collar trade caps my...

30 Loka 202411min

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