84 - Nick Bloom on Economic Uncertainty and the Productivity Slowdown

Gauti Eggertsson is a professor of economics at Brown University and is the author of several recent papers on the causes of the 2021-22 inflation surge and the lessons to be drawn from it for monetary policy going forward. Gauti is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he rejoins the show to talk about these papers and their findings. Specifically, David and Gauti discuss the role of the Fed's FAIT framework in the post-pandemic inflation surge, the return of the non-linear Phillips curve, the merits of nominal GDP targeting and average nominal output targeting, Gauti's policy suggestions for the Fed, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. Gauti's Twitter: @GautiEggertsson Gauti's website Gauti's Brown University profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *The Inflation Surge of the 2020s: The Role of Monetary Policy* by Gauti Eggertsson and Donald Kohn *It's Baaack: The Surge in Inflation in the 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curve* by Pierpaolo Benigno and Gauti Eggertsson *The Slanted-L Phillips Curve* by Pierpaolo Benigno and Gauti Eggertsson *A Toolkit for Solving Models with a Lower Bound on Interest Rates of Stochastic Duration* by Gauti Eggertsson, Sergey Egiev, Alessandro Lin, Josef Platzer, and Luca Riva *The Fed's New Policy Framework: A Major Improvement but More Can Be Done* by Gauti Eggertsson, Sergey Egiev, Alessandro Lin, Josef Platzer, and Luca Riva *The Princeton School and the Zero Lower Bound* by Scott Sumner *Temporary Price-Level Targeting: An Alternative Framework for Monetary Policy* by Ben Bernanke

29 Tammi 202459min

Jonathon Hazell is an assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics. Jonathon joins Macro Musings to talk about Phillips curves, R-stars, and nominal wage rigidity. Specifically, Jonathon and David also discuss the how to view the recent inflation experience, how to measure the natural rate using natural experiments, the downward nature of wage rigidity, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. Jonathon's Twitter: @JADHazell Jonathon's website Jonathon's LSE profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *The Natural Rate of Return on Capital: Replication Package* by Jonathon Hazell, Veronica Backer-Peral, and Atif Mian *The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence From US States* by Jonathon Hazell, Juan Herreno, Emi Nakamura, and Jon Steinsson *Measuring the Natural Rate Using Natural Experiments* by Veronica Backer-Peral, Jonathon Hazell, and Atif Mian *Downward Rigidity in the Wage for New Hires* by Jonathon Hazell and Bledi Taska *National Wage Setting* by Jonathon Hazell, Christina Patterson, Heather Sarsons, and Bledi Taska *The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?* by Christopher Pissarides

22 Tammi 20241h 10min

Skanda Amarnath is the executive director of Employ America, a think tank that promotes full employment in the American economy, and Preston Mui is also a senior economist at Employ America. Skanda and Preston join Macro Musings to talk about U.S. disinflation and the debates surrounding it, as well as what we can expect from Fed policy in 2024 and beyond, and finally, the Fed's framework review that is set to begin later this year. Transcript for this week's episode. Skanda's Twitter: @IrvingSwisher Skanda's Medium archive Preston's Twitter: @PrestonMui Preston's Github profile Skanda and Preston's Employ America bios David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Ten Thoughts on the Tribal "Transitory" Debate as We Enter 2024* by Skanda Amarnath *Three Motivations for Interest Rate Normalization: A Playbook for Fed Policy in 2024* by Preston Mui and Skanda Amarnath Jerome Powell's Opening Remarks at Monetary Policy Challenges in a Global Economy, a policy panel at the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conferences, hosted by the IMF

15 Tammi 20241h 5min

Claudio Borio is the head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank for International Settlements, or BIS. Claudio is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about central bank operating systems and the challenge of large balance sheets at central banks. David and Claudio also discuss the basics and uniqueness of the scarce reserve system, the arguments in favor of an abundant reserve system, the politics of large central bank balance sheets, the possibility of a tiered reserve system, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. Claudio's BIS profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Getting Up From the Floor* by Claudio Borio *Why Central Banks Should (but Might Not) Keep the Market Flooded With Money* by Jon Sindreu *Corridor, Floor, Other: Are Operating Frameworks Fit for the Future?* by Daniel Hinge

8 Tammi 202450min

Colby Smith is the US economics editor for the Financial Times, Steven Kelly is the Associate Director of Research at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, and Gerard DiPippo is the Senior Geoeconomics Analyst at Bloomberg. For this special year-end episode of Macro Musings, Colby, Steven, and Gerard join David to talk about the major surprises, themes, and underreported as well as overreported stories of the past year. They also discuss their prediction outcomes throughout 2023, the economic and political landscape ahead for 2024, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. Colby's FT profile Colby's Twitter: @colbyLsmith Steven's Substack: Without Warning Steven's Twitter: @StevenKelly49 Gerard's Twitter: @gdp1985 David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Sunk Costs: The Difficulty of Using Sanctions to Deter China in a Taiwan Crisis* by Gerard DiPippo and Jude Blanchette *Getting Up from the Floor* by Claudio Borio

1 Tammi 202454min

Tyler Cowen is a professor of economics at George Mason University, and is the co-author of the popular economics blog, Marginal Revolution. Tyler has also published widely in the field of economics, and he is the author of numerous books, including his most recent one titled, *GOAT: Who is the Greatest Economist of All Time, and Why Does it Matter?* As a returning guest to show, Tyler rejoins Macro Musings for this special holiday episode to break down who should be considered the greatest economist of all time. David and Tyler also assign awards to the best performing macroeconomic theories of the past decade, in addition to discussing Tyler's view on recent deflationary trends, the Fed's framework, and more. Transcript for this week's episode. Tyler's Mercatus profile Tyler's blog: Marginal Revolution Tyler's Twitter: @tylercowen David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Donate to Macro Musings! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *GOAT: Who is the Greatest Economist of All Time and Why Does it Matter?* by Tyler Cowen *Tyler Cowen on the Culture of Big Business in the United States* by Macro Musings

25 Joulu 202356min

Nicolas Cachanosky is an associate professor of economics at the University of Texas at El Paso, and he, along with Emilio Ocampo, are the authors of a recent book titled, *Dollarization: A Solution for Argentina.* Nicolas joins Macro Musings to talk about the potential dollarization of Argentina, including what it would require and mean for the country. Specifically, David and Nicolas also discuss Argentina's hyperinflationary experience, the three necessary steps for dollarization, the differences between dollarization and currency boards, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. Nicolas's Substack: Economic Order Nicolas's Twitter: @n_cachanosky Nicolas's website Nicolas's UTEP profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Donate to Macro Musings! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Dollarization: A Solution for Argentina* by Nicolas Cachanosky and Emilio Ocampo *How to Dollarize Argentina* by Nicolas Cachanosky *Pro Dollarization* by John Cochrane *Argentina Dollarization Is Medium-Term Goal, Caputo Tells Bankers* by Ignacio Olivera Doll

18 Joulu 20231h 2min

Charles Evans was a 31-year veteran of the Federal Reserve System, serving as a researcher, vice president, and, ultimately, president and CEO of the Chicago Fed from 2007 to 2023. Charles joins Macro Musings to talk about his past and ongoing work on US monetary policy. Specifically, Charles and David discuss his work as a regional bank president and a member of the FOMC, the creation and adoption of the Evans rule, the current path of R-Star, the future of the Fed's framework, and more. Transcript for this week's episode. Charles's Chicago Fed profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Donate to Macro Musings! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Implications for the Federal Reserve's MP Framework in the Future* by Charles Evans

11 Joulu 20231h 3min