Bill English on the Effectiveness of QE and the Consequences of Fed Losses
Bill English is a professor at Yale University, a former senior Fed staffer, and a veteran of the Bank for International Settlements. Bill joins Macro Musings to talk about his time at the Federal Reserve, recent Fed developments, and a paper he co-authored titled, "What If the Federal Reserve Books Losses Because of Its Quantitative Easing?" David and Bill also discuss the Fed's recent low-inflation mandate, the QE effectiveness debate, and why we should and shouldn't be concerned about Fed balance sheet losses. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Bill's Yale profile Bill's Federal Reserve profile David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: *What if the Federal Reserve Books Losses Because of its Quantitative Easing?* by William English and Donald Kohn Macro Musings: *Donald Kohn on Fed Policy from the 1970s to Today* *Think of Powell as Volcker's Wannabe Second Coming* by John Authers
3 Loka 202252min
Andrew Levin on the Costs and Benefits of QE4 and the Future of the Fed's Balance Sheet
Andrew Levin is a professor of economics at Dartmouth College and a former long-time Fed official. Andy is also a previous guest of Macro Musings and rejoins the podcast to talk about the costs and benefits of the Fed's QE4 program. David and Andy also discuss the Fed's recent record on inflation, QE4's impact on market functioning, the present and future of the Fed's balance sheet, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Andrew's Dartmouth profile Andrew's NBER archive David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: *Quantifying the Costs and Benefits of Quantitative Easing* by Andrew Levin, Brian Lu, and William Nelson *Incorporating Scenario Analysis into the Federal Reserve's Policy Strategy and Communications* by Michael Bordo, Andrew Levin, and Mickey Levy *What if the Federal Reserve Books Losses Because of its Quantitative Easing?* by William English and Donald Kohn
26 Syys 202254min
Steven Kelly on Crises, Stability, and the Fed's Role in Financial Markets
Steven Kelly is a senior research associate at the Yale Program on Financial Stability. Steven joins David on Macro Musings to discuss his work on financial stability and the role the Federal Reserve plays in it. Specifically, David and Steven discuss the Fed's evolving role in niche financial markets such as commodities and derivatives markets, what Section 13.3 of the Federal Reserve Act says about the Fed's basis to engage in financial markets, proposals to improve the Fed's Standing Repo Facility (SRF), the future of stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in financial markets, and much more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Steven's Twitter: @StevenKelly49 Steven's Substack: Without Warning David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: The Reserve (podcast) hosted by Kaleb Nygaard New Bagehot Project, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS) "The Fed As Derivatives Dealer of Last Resort?" by Steven Kelly "Could the Fed Rescue Commodities Markets?" by Steven Kelly "Improving the Standing Repo Facility" by Steven Kelly "Unappropriated Dollars: The Fed's Ad Hoc Lending Facilities and the Rules that Govern Them" by Lev Menand The Fed Unbound: Central Banking in a Time of Crisis by Lev Menand "Larry Ball on the Lehman Brothers Collapse and Its Role in the Great Recession", Macro Musings podcast episode (2018)
19 Syys 202249min
Scott Sumner on Alternative Approaches to Monetary Policy
Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center. Scott joins David on Macro Musings to look back on his contributions to monetary policy research with the Mercatus Center and elsewhere, as well as discuss his upcoming book, Alternative Approaches to Monetary Policy. In particular, Scott and David discuss how the Fed's monetary policy mistakes in 2008 impacted the direction of Scott's research, the theory and prospects for a nominal GDP futures contract, the future of monetary policy in the Eurozone and whether the ECB has gotten more hawkish, how changing macroeconomic conditions across history help explain the changing popularity of particular policy models, and much more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Scott's Twitter: @ScottSumnerTMI Scott's blog Scott's Mercatus profile David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: "Nominal GDP futures targeting" by Scott Sumner "A Market-Driven Nominal GDP Targeting Regime" by Scott Sumner "Using Futures Instrument Prices To Target Nominal Income" by Scott Sumner "The Impact of Futures Price Targeting on the Precision and Credibility of Monetary Policy" by Scott Sumner
12 Syys 202252min
Hanno Lustig on Fiscal Dominance, Inflation, and the Effects of Long-term Interest Rate Decline
Hanno Lustig is a professor of finance at Stanford University and a senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Hanno is also a former guest on Macro Musings and rejoins the podcast to talk about fiscal dominance, global inflation, interest rates, wealth and equality, and Eurozone challenges. David and Hanno also discuss how to reconcile Treasury yield movements with impending fiscal dominance, why we're seeing a long-term decline in real interest rates, the early trends in post-pandemic inflation, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Hanno's Twitter: @HannoLustig Hanno's Stanford profile David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: *What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt/Output Ratio? The Dogs that Didn't Bark* by Hanno Lustig, Zhengyang Jiang, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Xiaolan *US Government Debt Valuation Puzzle* by Hanno Lustig, Zhengyang Jiang, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Xiaolan *Monetary Science, Fiscal Alchemy* by Eric Leeper
5 Syys 202255min
Joshua Younger on the Treasury Market: Structure, Stressors, and Potential Reforms
Josh Younger is currently a managing director and global head of ALM research and strategy at JP Morgan, and previously spent over a decade as a senior market strategist focused on interest rate and money markets. Josh joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the current state of the Treasury market and various reforms that have recently been proposed for it. Specifically, Josh and David discuss the history and evolving structure of the Treasury market, the emergence of high frequency trading firms over the past decade, the factors behind the 2020 dash for cash, current stresses on the Treasury market, as well as potential reforms for the market going forward. Transcript for the episode can be found here. David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!
29 Elo 202254min
Carola Binder on the Importance of Inflation Expectations and How Policymakers Should Respond
Carola Binder is an associate professor of economics at Haverford College and is currently a visiting scholar in the Monetary Policy Program at the Mercatus Center. She is also an associate editor at the Review of Economics and Statistics and the Journal of Money Credit and Banking. Carola rejoins Macro Musings to talk about inflation expectations and uncertainty. Specifically, David and Carola discuss why we should care about inflation expectations, which survey measures are most important, how policymakers should respond, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Carola's Twitter: @cconces Carola's Haverford site Carola's Mercatus profile David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: *Consumer Inflation Uncertainty Is Rising* by Carola Binder *Stuck in the Seventies: Gas Prices and Consumer Sentiment* by Carola Binder and Christos Makridis *Inflation Expectations and Consumption: Evidence from 1951* by Carola Binder and Gillian Brunet *How Do Americans View Higher Inflation?* by Frank Newport *Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending: The Role of Household Balance Sheets* by Lenard Lieb and Johannes Schuffels *Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence* by Rudiger Bachmann, Tim Berg, and Eric Sims *A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications* by Christina Romer and David Romer
22 Elo 202253min
Jeffrey Lacker on the Past, Present, and Future of Federal Reserve Policy
Jeffrey Lacker is a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, where he served as its head from 2004 to 2017, and more recently served as a distinguished professor of economics at the Virginia Commonwealth University School of Business through 2022. Currently, Jeff serves on the Shadow Open Market Committee. He joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the traditions of the Richmond Fed, the history of the Federal Reserve's implicit inflation target prior to 2012, the two percent inflation target the Fed formalized in 2012, the more recent transition to an average inflation target, what the Fed should consider during its next comprehensive framework review, and much more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Jeffrey's website Jeffrey's Richmond Fed profile David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: *A Look Back at the Consensus Statement* By Jeffrey Lacker *Money Market Fund Reform: Dealing with the Fundamental Problem* by Jeffrey Lacker
15 Elo 202252min
