84 - Nick Bloom on Economic Uncertainty and the Productivity Slowdown

84 - Nick Bloom on Economic Uncertainty and the Productivity Slowdown

Nicholas Bloom is a professor of economics at Stanford University and is the co-director of the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship program at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Today, Nick joins the show to discuss his work on the causes and effects of economic uncertainty as well as how to measure uncertainty in an economy. David and Nick also discuss why productivity has slowed down in recent decades and why Nick is not especially optimistic that productivity will really improve anytime soon. David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Nick Bloom's Stanford University profile: https://people.stanford.edu/nbloom/ Related links: The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index http://www.policyuncertainty.com/ "Fluctuations in Uncertainty" by Nicholas Bloom http://www.nber.org/papers/w19714.pdf "Why has US Policy Uncertainty Risen since 1960?" by Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Brandice Canes-Wrone, Steven J. Davis, and Jonathan Rodden https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.104.5.56

Jaksot(524)

Henry Curr on Inflation, the Phillips Curve, and A New Monetarism

Henry Curr on Inflation, the Phillips Curve, and A New Monetarism

Henry Curr is the economics editor for The Economist magazine, and the author of a special report by the magazine on the phenomenon of low inflation now facing the global economy. Henry joins the show today to outline this report and the big questions surrounding low inflation. David and Curr also discuss the persistent low inflation of the present around the globe, why the Phillips Curve has broken down as a policy tool, and how technology may be causing inflation to miss its target set by central banks. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/11042019/henry-curr-inflation-phillips-curve-and-new-monetarism Henry's Twitter: @Henry_Curr Henry's Economist profile: https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/henry-curr/ Related Links: *Inflation is Losing its Meaning as an Economic Indicator* A Special Report by Henry Curr (note that this link includes many of the various pieces discussed during the episode) https://www.economist.com/special-report/2019/10/10/inflation-is-losing-its-meaning-as-an-economic-indicator *Alexa, How Much is it? Technology is Making Inflation Statistics an Unreliable Guide to the Economy* by Henry Curr https://www.economist.com/special-report/2019/10/10/technology-is-making-inflation-statistics-an-unreliable-guide-to-the-economy *Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evolution, Drivers, and Policies* Edited by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/publication/inflation-in-emerging-and-developing-economies David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

4 Marras 20191h 3min

Diego Zuluaga on Libra, Real-time Payments, and the Legacy of the Community Reinvestment Act

Diego Zuluaga on Libra, Real-time Payments, and the Legacy of the Community Reinvestment Act

Diego Zuluaga is a policy analyst at the Cato Institute's Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives where he covers financial technology and consumer credit, and before joining Cato, Diego was head of financial services and tech policy at the Institute of Economic Affairs in London. He joins the show today to talk about his work within this policy area. David and Diego also discuss the future of cryptocurrencies, the fragmented nature of the US banking system, and the growing importance of fintech in our daily lives. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/10282019/diego-zuluaga-libra-real-time-payments-and-legacy-community-reinvestment Diego's Twitter: @DiegoZuluagaL Diego's Cato Institute profile: https://www.cato.org/people/diego-zuluaga Related Links: *New York's Bank: The National Monetary Commission and the Founding of the Fed* by George Selgin https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/new-yorks-bank-national-monetary-commission-founding-fed *Fintech, Regulatory Arbitrage, and the Rise of Shadow Banks* by Greg Buchak, Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski, and Amit Seru https://www.nber.org/papers/w23288 *Of Libras and Zebras, Part One: What Are the True Financial Risks of the Facebook-Led Digital Currency? (Systemic Risk)* by Diego Zuluaga https://www.alt-m.org/2019/07/11/of-libras-and-zebras-part-one/ *Of Libras and Zebras, Part Two: What Are the True Financial Risks of the Facebook-Led Digital Currency? (Monopoly Risk)* by Diego Zuluaga https://www.alt-m.org/2019/07/16/of-libras-and-zebras-part-two/ *Of Libras and Zebras: What Are the True Financial Risks of the Facebook-Led Digital Curency? (Part III: National Security Risk)* by Diego Zuluaga https://www.cato.org/blog/libras-zebras-what-are-true-financial-risks-facebook-led-digital-currency-part-iii-national *The Community Reinvestment Act in the Age of Fintech and Bank Competition* by Diego Zuluaga https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/community-reinvestment-act-age-fintech-bank-competition David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

28 Loka 201959min

Frances Coppola on the Macroeconomics of Helicopter Drops

Frances Coppola on the Macroeconomics of Helicopter Drops

Frances Coppola is a former banker, financial writer, and an author of a recent book titled, *The Case for People's Quantitative Easing*, and she joins the show today to talk about it. David and Frances also discuss the overall potential effectiveness of helicopter drops, how they would be deployed during future recessions, and the criticisms and concerns that have been levied against them. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/10212019/frances-coppola-macroeconomics-helicopter-drops Frances's Twitter: @Frances_Coppola Frances's website: http://www.coppolacomment.com/ Related Links: *The Case for People's Quantitative Easing* by Frances Coppola https://www.wiley.com/en-me/The+Case+For+People's+Quantitative+Easing-p-9781509531301 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

21 Loka 20191h 1min

David Beckworth on the Facts, Fears, and Functionality of NGDP Level Targeting

David Beckworth on the Facts, Fears, and Functionality of NGDP Level Targeting

In this special episode of Macro Musings, the roles are reversed, and David Beckworth joins guest host Cardiff Garcia, host of NPR's "The Indicator from Planet Money", to talk about his newest paper, *Facts, Fears, and Functionality of NGDP Level Targeting: A Guide to a Popular Framework for Monetary Policy*. David and Cardiff conduct a deep dive into the plumbing of this potential monetary regime, as they discuss some of the most the important questions surrounding it. Some of these questions include: what is nominal GDP level targeting, and how does it differ from the Fed's current inflation targeting framework? How does NGDP targeting deal with economic downturns and in a more effective manner than inflation targeting? How can this framework be properly communicated and explained to the public? David answers these questions and addresses further concerns and criticisms of NGDP targeting in this unique installment of Macro Musings. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/10182019/david-beckworth-facts-fears-and-functionality-ngdp-level-targeting David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David's blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ David's Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/david-beckworth Cardiff's Twitter: @CardiffGarcia Cardiff's NPR profile: https://www.npr.org/people/567164716/cardiff-garcia Related Links: *Facts, Fears, and Functionality of Nominal GDP Level Targeting: A Guide to a Popular Framework for Monetary Policy* by David Beckworth https://www.mercatus.org/publications/monetary-policy/facts-fears-and-functionality-ngdp-level-targeting *The Financial Stability Case for a Nominal GDP Target* by David Beckworth https://www.cato.org/cato-journal/springsummer-2019/financial-stability-case-nominal-gdp-target

16 Loka 20191h

Srinivas Thiruvadanthai on the Sectoral Financial Balance Approach to Macroeconomics

Srinivas Thiruvadanthai on the Sectoral Financial Balance Approach to Macroeconomics

Srinivas Thiruvadanthai is a managing director and the director of research at the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center. Sri joins the show today to talk about the sectoral financial balance approach to macroeconomics as well as the safe asset supply challenge. David and Sri also discuss the fallacy of composition in macroeconomics, post-Keynesianism and how it differs from mainstream economic thought, and potential solutions to help ease the cost of being the banker to the world. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/10172019/srinivas-thiruvadanthai-sectoral-financial-balance-approach-macroeconomics Sri's Twitter: @teasri Sri's JLFC profile: https://www.levyforecast.com/about-us/srinivas-thiruvadanthai/ Related Links: *Monetary Economics: An Integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production and Wealth* by Wynne Godley and Marc Lavoie http://dl4a.org/uploads/pdf/Monetary+Economics+-+Lavoie+Godley.pdf David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

14 Loka 201957min

Bill Nelson on the Repo Market Stress, the Fed's Operating System, and the Prospects for a Standing Repo Facility

Bill Nelson on the Repo Market Stress, the Fed's Operating System, and the Prospects for a Standing Repo Facility

Bill Nelson is a chief economist at the Bank Policy Institute and was previously a deputy director of the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board, where his responsibilities included monetary policy analysis, discount window policy analysis, and financial institution supervision. Bill has written widely on the Fed's operating system, and he joins the show today to talk about it, as well as the recent turmoil in money markets. David and Bill also discuss the possibility of the Fed moving back to a corridor system, the stigma surrounding banks using the discount window, and the story of recent supply and demand dislocation in repo markets. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/10072019/bill-nelson-repo-market-stress-feds-operating-system-and-prospects-standing Related Links: Link to supply and demand curves mentioned in the episode: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-repo-man-cometh.html *Two Little-Noticed and Self-Inflicted Causes of the Fed's Current Monetary Policy Implementation Predicament* by Bill Nelson https://bpi.com/two-little-noticed-and-self-inflicted-causes-of-the-feds-current-monetary-policy-implementation-predicament/ *Fed at a Crossroads* by Bill Nelson https://bpi.com/fed-at-a-crossroad/ *Bank Regulations and Turmoil in Repo Markets* by Francisco Covas & Bill Nelson https://bpi.com/bank-regulations-and-turmoil-in-repo-markets/ *What Just Happened in Money Markets, and Why it Matters* by Bill Nelson https://bpi.com/what-just-happened-in-money-markets-and-why-it-matters/ *Impending Money Market Volatility Prompts Warning Light for LCR Tune-Up* by Bill Nelson & Brett Waxman https://bpi.com/impending-money-market-volatility-prompts-warning-light-for-lcr-tune-up/ *Design Challenges for a Standing Repo Facility* by Bill Nelson https://bpi.com/design-challenges-for-a-standing-repo-facility/ *A Former Fed Insider Explains the Internal Debate over QE3* by Bill Nelson https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/02/16/2198845/guest-post-a-former-fed-insider-explains-the-internal-debate-over-qe3/ *Get Up Off The Floor* By Bill Nelson https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/cochranepalermotaylor_currencies_ch9.pdf *FOMC Go Home* by Bill Nelson https://bpi.com/fomc-go-home/ *Understanding the Fed's Implementation Framework Debate* by Bill Nelson https://bpi.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Understanding_the_Fed's_implementation_framework_debate_Review05.pdf David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

7 Loka 201958min

Jim Dorn on the History of Monetary Policy in Washington D.C. and its Future

Jim Dorn on the History of Monetary Policy in Washington D.C. and its Future

Jim Dorn is the Vice President for Monetary Studies at the Cato Institute and is the director of Cato's annual Monetary Policy Conference. Jim has written widely on Federal Reserve policy and monetary reform, and has also edited more than 10 books including *The Search for Stable Money* and *The Future of Money in the Information Age*. He joins the show today to talk about the history of monetary policy in Washington D.C. over the past four decades as well as some of his own recent work. David and Jim also discuss the issues covered at the most recent Cato Institute monetary policy conference, the recent mystery of low inflation, and Jim's idea of an optimal monetary policy regime. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/10022019/jim-dorn-history-monetary-policy-washington-dc-and-its-future Jim's Cato Institute profile: https://www.cato.org/people/james-dorn Related Links: Registration for the Cato Institute Monetary Policy Conference: https://www.cato.org/events/37th-annual-monetary-conference *The Search for Stable Money: Essays on Monetary Reform* edited by James Dorn and Anna Schwartz https://www.amazon.com/Search-Stable-Money-Essays-Monetary/dp/0226158292 *The Future of Money in the Information Age* edited by James Dorn https://www.amazon.com/Future-Money-Information-Age/dp/1882577523 *the Political Economy of Inflation* by Fritz Machlup https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/cato-journal/1983/5/cj3n1-3.pdf *Has Monetarism Failed?* by Karl Brunner https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/803d/c8632bec26142f4c6b54f9e692c6acf2fe72.pdf *Should the Fed Be Constrained?* by Jeffrey Frankel https://www.cato.org/cato-journal/springsummer-2019/should-fed-be-constrained *Improving the Monetary Regime: The Case for U.S. Digital Cash* by Michael Bordo and Andrew Levin https://www.cato.org/cato-journal/springsummer-2019/improving-monetary-regime-case-us-digital-cash David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

30 Syys 201956min

Gregg Gelzinis on Reforming FSOC and How to Limit Future Financial Crises

Gregg Gelzinis on Reforming FSOC and How to Limit Future Financial Crises

Gregg Gelzinis is a policy analyst at the Center for American Progress where he focuses his work on financial institutions, financial markets, consumer finance policy, and financial regulation more broadly, and he joins the show today to talk about these issues. David and Gregg also discuss the Financial Stability Oversight Council's (FSOC) inception, the tradeoffs between financial regulation and capital requirements, how the Fed could improve its stress testing. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/09232019/gregg-gelzinis-reforming-fsoc-and-how-limit-future-financial-crises Gregg's Twitter: @FinGregg Gregg's Center for American Progress profile: https://www.americanprogress.org/about/staff/gelzinis-gregg/bio/ Related Links: *Strengthening the Regulation and Oversight of Shadow Banks: Revitalizing the Financial Stability Oversight Council* by Gregg Gelzinis https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/reports/2019/07/18/471564/strengthening-regulation-oversight-shadow-banks/ David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

23 Syys 20191h 2min

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