20VC: Why Historical Loss Ratios Are Simply Too High, Why Data Is The #1 Most Important Piece When Evaluating Effective Reserve Allocation & Why Nothing Is Truly Defensible Today with Jonathan Hsu, Co-Founder and General Partner @ Tribe Capital

20VC: Why Historical Loss Ratios Are Simply Too High, Why Data Is The #1 Most Important Piece When Evaluating Effective Reserve Allocation & Why Nothing Is Truly Defensible Today with Jonathan Hsu, Co-Founder and General Partner @ Tribe Capital

Jonathan Hsu is Co-Founder & General Partner @ Tribe Capital, one of Silicon Valley's newest funds on the block being founded by Jonathan, Arjun Sethi and Ted Maidenberg. To date, Tribe has invested in the likes of Carta, Cover, Mode Analytics, Prodigy and SFOX. As for Jonathan, before founding Tribe he was a Partner @ Social Capital where he utilized data and technology to augment sourcing, evaluation of investment opportunities and the management and value add for portfolio companies. Before that he led the creation of the analytics and data science team at Facebook, including leading the hiring of 200 of the world's leading data scientists and analysts.

In Today's Episode You Will Learn:

1.) How Jonathan made his way from leading 200 data scientists at Facebook to the world of venture and founding his own firm in the form of Tribe Capital today?

2.) If we structure VC simplistically, there are 4 core components:

  • Sourcing: How does Jonathan think about the role of data in actively surfacing the best opportunities? that are the leading data fields that Jonathan would track? Why does Jonathan believe most early-stage firms are just using Linkedin Sales Navigator intelligently?
  • Evaluating: How does Jonathan think about the potential for data to really aid in the picking process? At what stage does this really become possible? How much data is required for data to evaluate opportunities?
  • Winning: Winning deals is seemingly a case of human relationships but how does Jonathan think intelligent data usage and benchmarking can actually help firms win the most competitive deals?
  • Value Add: How does Jonathan think about portfolio management with data? How does this differ from the more traditional "value add" that other VCs provide? Where are the common pitfalls Series A companies you work with face in not achieving product-market fit?

3.) Given the data-driven nature of the approach, does Jonathan think that there is an optimal portfolio construction? Why does Jonathan strongly believe that historical loss ratios are too high? Does data allow firms to really intelligently price these assets at the Series A and B? What are the challenges in pricing these assets so early?

4.) How does Jonathan think about reserve allocation? Why is data more critical than ever in the decision to re-invest or not? What are the leading data signals that Jonathan looks for when determining reserve allocation? Why does Jonathan think that so many firms go wrong in how they approach reserve management and distribution?

5.) Question from Henry Ward @ Carta: What does N of 1 markets mean to you Jonathan? Why are they so inherently attractive? How do pricing dynamics play out in markets that are N of 1? How does Jonathan think about defensibility when analysing opportunities today? Is anything truly defensible anymore?

Items Mentioned In Today's Show:

Jonathan's Fave Book: The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman Times to the French Revolution

Jonathan's Most Recent Investment: Carta

As always you can follow Harry, The Twenty Minute VC and Jonathan on Twitter here!

Likewise, you can follow Harry on Instagram here for mojito madness and all things 20VC.

Jaksot(1405)

20Growth: How to Build a Paid Marketing Machine: ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) 101 | The Rise of User Generated Content and How to Use It | TikTok Ads: Expectations vs. Reality | Hiring for Growth: When and Who with Sandy Diao

20Growth: How to Build a Paid Marketing Machine: ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) 101 | The Rise of User Generated Content and How to Use It | TikTok Ads: Expectations vs. Reality | Hiring for Growth: When and Who with Sandy Diao

Sandy Diao is one of the most exceptional growth leaders of the last decade. Sandy has scaled products to over 200M+ users and led growth teams at Descript, Meta and Pinterest. She is also a prolific writer all on things growth here.  AGENDA:  03:59 Biggest Growth Lessons from Pinterest 08:01 What is a Good vs a Bad Growth Hypothesis 11:11 Common Mistakes in Growth Strategies 14:57 Channel Fit: When You Have It & What To Do 25:43 Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) 101: How to Build a Paid Marketing Machine 30:08 How to Do SEO and Long-Term Growth Investments 33:22 Doubling Down on Successful Channels 36:31 The Unchanging Foundations of SEO 37:52 Generative AI Engines vs. Traditional Search Engines 41:12 Paid Marketing Channels: What's Overrated? 43:42 The Rise of User-Generated Content (UGC) 46:34 TikTok Ads: Expectations vs. Reality 49:55 Brand Marketing: What is Real vs What is BS? 53:33 The Importance of Feature Launches 01:01:50 Hiring for Growth: When and Who? 01:08:55 Quick Fire Round: Onboarding, Notifications, and Growth Channels

24 Loka 20251h 16min

20VC: Why VC Today is Worse Than 2021 | Why Vertical SaaS is a Bad Investment Today | Why We Are Deluding Ourselves on Growth Expectations | Revolut Raises $3BN at a $75BN Valuation | Benchmark Adds Their Newest General Partner

20VC: Why VC Today is Worse Than 2021 | Why Vertical SaaS is a Bad Investment Today | Why We Are Deluding Ourselves on Growth Expectations | Revolut Raises $3BN at a $75BN Valuation | Benchmark Adds Their Newest General Partner

AGENDA: 04:50 Benchmark's New Partner: Everett Randall 10:19 Revolut Raises $3BN at a $75BN Valuation: Another Loss for Public Markets? 28:39 Why Today is as Bad as the Hype of COVID in 2021 32:10 Why Vertical SaaS is a Bad VC Investment Today 36:14 Why Everyone Investing in Legal SaaS Will Lose Money 44:16 Why King Making is More Real Than Ever 55:23 Why Your Smallest Customers Need to Pay $10K Minimum 01:01:37 Why VC is a S*** Asset Class 01:09:29 Why Today is Harder Than It Has Ever Been in VC 01:25:18 Closing Thoughts and Reflections

23 Loka 20251h 28min

20VC: Deel CEO Alex Bouaziz on Raising $300M+ at a $17BN Valuation | Deel vs Rippling: WTF is Going On | Management Lessons from Ben Horowitz and Nik Storonsky | Deel's M&A Playbook: Lessons from 13 Acquisitions: What Works & What Doesn't

20VC: Deel CEO Alex Bouaziz on Raising $300M+ at a $17BN Valuation | Deel vs Rippling: WTF is Going On | Management Lessons from Ben Horowitz and Nik Storonsky | Deel's M&A Playbook: Lessons from 13 Acquisitions: What Works & What Doesn't

Alex Bouaziz is the Co-Founder and CEO @ Deel, the $17BN global payroll juggernaut that just last week announced their latest $300M fundraise led by Ribbit, a16z and Coatue. Deel has been on the most insane journey, they do $1BN+ in ARR, they just had their first $100M revenue month and they have been profitable for over 3 years. AGENDA: 03:38 Announcing $300M Fundraise at a $17BN Valuation 06:24 Rippling vs Deel: WTF is Going On? Where is the Lawsuit? 14:01 Why 1-1s Are BS and Leaders Should Stop Doing Them 17:31 Do Rich Leaders Make Better Leaders 28:33 Biggest Lesson from Ben Horowitz? Why Most CMOs Are Bad? 34:48 Lessons from Nik @ Revolut and Why Companies Need to Make Their Own Software 42:23 Deel's Acquisition Playbook: Lessons from 13 Acquisitions 45:17 How to Price Acquisitions? How to Align Incentives with Founders? 55:45 Deel is Profitable and Growing Fast: When is the IPO? 01:01:35 Best Acquisition Ever + Worst Ever: What Did We Learn?

22 Loka 20251h 15min

20VC: The Startup Adding $1M ARR Every Week | Competing Against OpenAI's Codex and Claude Code: Who Wins | Why Gemini is Failing and GPT-5 Is Winning | Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | The Ugly Truth About AI Coding with Zach Lloyd, Warp

20VC: The Startup Adding $1M ARR Every Week | Competing Against OpenAI's Codex and Claude Code: Who Wins | Why Gemini is Failing and GPT-5 Is Winning | Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | The Ugly Truth About AI Coding with Zach Lloyd, Warp

Zach Lloyd is the Founder and CEO of Warp, the next-generation developer terminal reinventing how engineers build and collaborate. Warp has raised over $70M from top-tier investors including Sequoia Capital, GV, Dylan Field, and Elad Gil. Before founding Warp, Zach was Principal Engineer at Google, where he led development of Google Docs, and later served as CTO at Time. He's one of the most respected engineering minds redefining the future of developer tools. AGENDA: 04:14 Biggest Product Lessons from Rewriting Google Sheets 07:10 Why I Would Short Google: Leadership and AI Strategy 09:55 Comparing AI Models: GPT, Claude, and Gemini: Who Wins and Loses 17:04 Do Margins Matter in AI? 24:57 Adding $1M in ARR Every Week: Is Triple, Triple, Double, Double Dead? 33:58 How to Build Defensibility in a World of AI? 43:05 OpenAI vs Anthropic: Who Wins and Why? 44:25 Biggest Fundraising Lessons Raising from Sequoia, Elad Gil and GV 50:56 Why Sequoia are the Best VC 53:51 What Every Founder Gets Wrong in Fundraising 01:01:30 Quick Fire Questions and Final Thoughts

17 Loka 20251h 13min

20VC: $3.5BN - The Price Zuck Paid for Thinking Machines Co-Founder | Goldman Sachs Acquires Industry Ventures for $665M | Softbank Borrows $5BN Against ARM Holding to Invest More Into OpenAI

20VC: $3.5BN - The Price Zuck Paid for Thinking Machines Co-Founder | Goldman Sachs Acquires Industry Ventures for $665M | Softbank Borrows $5BN Against ARM Holding to Invest More Into OpenAI

AGENDA: 03:44 Rory Is So Old He Worked with Arthur Rock!!! 07:28 Goldman Sachs Acquires Industry Ventures for $665M 16:37 Thinking Machines Co-Founder Raises $2BN and Then Leaves for Meta 29:36 SoftBank Goes for $5BN Leverage Against ARM Stock To Buy More OpenAI 39:35 More Data Centres Than Offices: Are We In a Bubble 43:28 Where is the Alpha in Venture in 2025 51:48 What 90% of Managers Get Wrong About Portfolio Management

16 Loka 20251h 19min

20VC: Atlassian CEO on Why Everything is Overvalued & Are We in an AI Bubble | Do Margins Matter & Does Defensibility Exist in an AI World | Is Per Seat Pricing Dead & The Future of Vibe Coding with Mike Cannon-Brookes

20VC: Atlassian CEO on Why Everything is Overvalued & Are We in an AI Bubble | Do Margins Matter & Does Defensibility Exist in an AI World | Is Per Seat Pricing Dead & The Future of Vibe Coding with Mike Cannon-Brookes

Mike Cannon-Brookes is the Co-Founder and Co-CEO of Atlassian, the $50BN software giant behind products like Jira, Confluence, and Trello. Since founding the company in 2002, he has scaled it to over 300,000 customers globally, generating more than $5BN in annual revenue. Atlassian now employs over 10,000 people across 13 countries and is one of the most successful bootstrapped-to-IPO stories in tech history. Mike is also a leading climate investor and co-owner of several major sports teams. AGENDA: 00:00 Why Unreasonable Men Win in Startups 07:22 How to Make Co-CEOs Work 13:22 Are We in an AI Bubble? Is Everything Overvalued? 26:46 The Future of Software Development: More or Less Devs 32:53 Do Margins Matter in a World of AI 34:02 The Future of Vibe Coding… 36:35 Does Defensibility Exist in a World of AI 42:09 Is Per Seat Pricing Dead in a World of AI 49:01 The Founder Journey and Leadership 54:28 Quick Fire Round: Parenting Advice, Relationship to Money

13 Loka 20251h 3min

20Sales: Scaling Snowflake from $0-$3BN in ARR | Snowflake vs Databricks: My Biggest Lessons | Why Customer Success is BS and What Replaces It with Chris Chris Degnan

20Sales: Scaling Snowflake from $0-$3BN in ARR | Snowflake vs Databricks: My Biggest Lessons | Why Customer Success is BS and What Replaces It with Chris Chris Degnan

Chris Degnan is the former Chief Revenue Officer at Snowflake, where he was instrumental in scaling the company from less than $1M in ARR to over $3B in annual revenue. He joined as the first sales hires and built Snowflake's go-to-market engine from scratch, growing the team from to more than 6,000 globally. Under his leadership, Snowflake became one of the fastest-growing enterprise software companies in history, achieving a record-breaking IPO in 2020. AGENDA: 04:34 How to Build a Sales Team from Scratch 07:49 How to Hire and Evaluate Sales Leaders 15:23 Four Big Lessons Scaling Snowflake to $3BN ARR 31:30 Comparing Snowflake and Databricks: What Databricks Did Better? 35:26 How to Manage Sales Team Morale in Competitive Markets 43:53 Why Customer Success is BS and What To Do With It 48:31 How Every Sales Leader Needs to Change in An AI World 49:37 Biggest Reflections on Sales Leadership 54:38 Quick Fire Questions and Final Thoughts 20Sales: Scaling Snowflake from $0-$3BN in ARR | Snowflake vs Databricks: My Biggest Lessons | Why Customer Success is BS and What Replaces It with Chris Chris Degnan

10 Loka 20251h 2min

20VC: OpenAI's Multi $BN Deal with AMD | Polymarket, Vercel and Supabase Raise Mega Rounds | Does King Making Really Work in Venture Capital: Harvey vs Legora | Chamath is Back: The SPAC is Back

20VC: OpenAI's Multi $BN Deal with AMD | Polymarket, Vercel and Supabase Raise Mega Rounds | Does King Making Really Work in Venture Capital: Harvey vs Legora | Chamath is Back: The SPAC is Back

AGENDA: 03:29 OpenAI and AMD's Major Partnership 07:35 Microsoft Have F***** Up the OpenAI Partnership 17:08 OpenAI's Developer Day Announcements 20:45 Why VC is the Most Forgiving Asset Class on Price and Valuation 29:10 What Does it Take to IPO in 2025: Why Snyk Will Not IPO 42:30 Four Strategies Companies Need to Take to Own Their Own Destiny 49:31 Vercel Raises $300M at $9BN: Suicide Round or Strategic 55:39 Does King Making Really Work in Venture Capital: Legora vs Harvey 01:08:11 Chamath Raises Latest SPAC: SPACs are Back 01:10:56 Polymarket Raises $2BN at a $9BN Valuation 01:14:53 Quick Fire Questions and Wrap-Up

9 Loka 20251h 24min

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