20VC: Keith Rabois on Why Buy Low, Sell High Does Not Work in Venture, Keith's Biggest Lessons from Prior Crashes, Why Today's Public Markets are not an Over-Reaction, Why Valuation is a Trap & Why Wokeness is a Function of Entitlement

20VC: Keith Rabois on Why Buy Low, Sell High Does Not Work in Venture, Keith's Biggest Lessons from Prior Crashes, Why Today's Public Markets are not an Over-Reaction, Why Valuation is a Trap & Why Wokeness is a Function of Entitlement

Keith Rabois is a General Partner @ Founders Fund, one of the best performing funds of the last decade with a portfolio including Facebook, Airbnb, SpaceX, Stripe, Anduril, the list goes on. As for Keith, he has led the first institutional investments in DoorDash, Affirm and co-founded Opendoor. He has also led investments in Faire, Ramp, Trade Republic, and Stripe. As an operator, Keith has an unparalleled track record as a Senior Exec at Paypal, he then went on to influential roles at Linkedin and being COO at Square. Finally, as an angel, Keith made early investments into Airbnb, Lyft, Palantir, Wish and more.

In Today's Episode with Keith Rabois:

1.) Buy Low, Sell High: What BS!

  • Why does Keith believe that "buy low, sell high" does not work in venture?
  • Why would it lead you to very dangerous investment decisions at the early stage?
  • How does the size of your fund impact the appropriateness of "buy low, sell high"?

2.) The Current Landscape:

  • Does Keith believe the current state of public markets is an over-reaction or a new normal?
  • How does Keith respond to the suggestion that Founders Fund has paused new investments given the uncertainty in the market?
  • How does Keith think about investing through cycles and temporal diversification?
  • How does Keith advise young investors today questioning whether they are actually any good at this?
  • What does Keith believe are his biggest fears and insecurities today?

3.) Outcome Scenario Planning and Competitor Analysis:

  • Does Keith believe outcome scenario planning is important?
  • Why does Keith believe you can always tell your biggest hits early? What have been the core signs for him?
  • What have been some of Keith's biggest lessons from Mike Moritz and Vinod Khosla when it comes to upside maximization? What are the right questions to ask?
  • Why does Keith believe you do need to look through public market comps when investing in startups?

4.) Time Allocation and Losing Faith in Founders:

  • How does Keith approach time allocation across the portfolio? Spend time with the winners or help the struggling companies? What have been his biggest lessons here?
  • What does Keith do when he has lost faith in the founder? How does he communicate it to them?
  • What does Kieth believe VCs do wrong when they no longer believe in the founder or company?

5.) Do VCs Add Value?

  • What does Keith believe is the acid test for whether he is doing his job as a VC properly?
  • Why does Keith believe there are only 5 board members that add true value to their companies at scale?
  • Who is the best board member Keith has ever worked with? Why?
  • Why does Keith believe that age is not your friend as an investor? How does he combat this?

6.) The Downfall of SF and Wokeness:

  • Will we see a reduction of wokeness in companies with the public markets correcting and power shifting from employees to employers?
  • Is Keith concerned by the lack of coherence in the US today when it comes to politics?
  • What are the core reasons for the downfall of SF to Keith?
  • Why does he believe it is a net negative to build a company in SF today?

Items Mentioned in Today's Episode:

Keith's Most Recent Investment: Found

Jaksot(1403)

20VC: a16z's David George on How $BN Funds Can 5×, Do Margins & Revenue Matter in AI & the Most Controversial Bet at a16z

20VC: a16z's David George on How $BN Funds Can 5×, Do Margins & Revenue Matter in AI & the Most Controversial Bet at a16z

David George is a General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz, where he leads the firm's Growth investing team. His team has backed many of the defining companies of this era, including Databricks, Figma, Stripe, SpaceX, Anduril, and OpenAI, and is now investing behind a new generation of AI startups like Cursor, Harvey, and Abridge. AGENDA: 03:05 – Why Everyone is Wrong: Mega Funds Does Not Reduce Returns 10:40 – Is Public Market Capital Actually Cheaper Than Private Capital? 18:55 – The Biggest Advantage of Staying Private for Longer 23:30 – The #1 Investing Rule for a16z: Always Invest in the Founder's Strength of Strengths 31:20 – Why Fear of Theoretical Competition Makes Investors Miss Great Companies 35:10 – Does Revenue Matter as Much in a World of AI? 44:10 – Does Kingmaking Still Exist in Venture Capital Today? 49:20 – Do Margins Matter Less Than Ever in an AI-First World? 53:50 – My Biggest Miss: Anthropic and What I Learn From it?  56:30 – Has OpenAI Won Consumer AI? Will Anthropic Win Enterprise? 59:45 – The Most Controversial Decision in Andreessen Horowitz History 1:01:30 – Why Did You Invest $300M into Adam Neumann and Flow?

15 Joulu 20251h 6min

20Growth: How Wiz Built a $30BN Brand in Enterprise | What Worked vs What Was a Mega Failure: Lessons Learned | Why Marketers Make the Worst CMOs & What To Look for in Growth with Raaz Herzberg

20Growth: How Wiz Built a $30BN Brand in Enterprise | What Worked vs What Was a Mega Failure: Lessons Learned | Why Marketers Make the Worst CMOs & What To Look for in Growth with Raaz Herzberg

Raaz Herberg is the Chief Marketing Officer and VP Product Strategy at Wiz, the fastest-growing cloud security company in history. As one of the first 10 employees, Raaz has helped scale the business from nothing to a multi-billion-dollar ARR business. Before Wiz, Raaz was a Senior PM working on Azure at Microsoft.  AGENDA: 03:51 What No One Knows About The Early Wiz Days 09:08 Most Effective Marketing Wiz Ever Did? Lessons from it? 24:11 How Wiz Mastered Enterprise Sales and Product Development 39:12 The Value of Proof of Concept an Why Everyone Gets Them Wrong 44:23 Why The Best Leaders Give More Equity Than They Should 52:55 The Impact of COVID on Business Operations 01:01:33 What in AI is No One Talking About That Everyone Should Be? 01:07:29 Why Does Raaz Think Custom Tools Will Dominate the Enterprise?

12 Joulu 20251h 16min

20VC OGs: SpaceX Valued at $800BN & Harvey Raises $160M at an $8BN Price | Airwallex Raises $330M and The Battle with Keith Rabois | Netflix Acquires Warner Brothers | IPO Market Predictions for 2026: Anthropic, Stripe, Databricks and SpaceX

20VC OGs: SpaceX Valued at $800BN & Harvey Raises $160M at an $8BN Price | Airwallex Raises $330M and The Battle with Keith Rabois | Netflix Acquires Warner Brothers | IPO Market Predictions for 2026: Anthropic, Stripe, Databricks and SpaceX

AGENDA: 03:46 SpaceX's $800 Billion Valuation: A Deep Dive 09:18 IPO Market Predictions for 2026 18:18 Netflix's Bold Move: Acquiring Warner Brothers 27:43 Tiger's New Fund Strategy 33:02 Databricks' Head of AI $500 Million Seed Round 36:38 Harvey Raises $160M at an $8BN Valuation 48:22 Will LLMs Kill the App Layer 01:02:02 Google's AI Capabilities 01:06:58 Chinese Open Source Models in US Startups 01:08:57 Airwallex Raises $330M at an $8BN Valuation 01:23:50 Prediction Markets and Insider Trading

11 Joulu 20251h 31min

20VC: Kalshi's $1BN Raise, the Polymarket Feud, and the Battle to Replace Traditional Media

20VC: Kalshi's $1BN Raise, the Polymarket Feud, and the Battle to Replace Traditional Media

Tarek Mansour is the Co-Founder and CEO @ Kalshi, the leader in the world of prediction markets. Just last week, they announced their $1BN raise at an $11BN valuation. In total, they have raised $1.59BN from some of the best, including Sequoia, a16z, General Catalyst, IVP, Meritech, and more. They also last week announced exclusive partnerships with CNN and CNBC, marking their move into mainstream media and news.  AGENDA: 03:28 Why Did Kalshi Need to Raise $1BN 10:35 Why is Kalshi vs Polymarket Such a Fierce Rivalry? 20:44 The Future of Prediction Markets 25:09 Why Does Kalshi Partner with CNN When They Could Replace Them? 26:27 Why Did Tarek Fight For the Rights of his Early Investors So Much? 27:25 What Makes Alfred Lin The Best? 29:19 Does Having Sequoia as an Investor Change the Game? 36:58 Are Teenage Founders Today Emotionally Ready to Lead Companies 38:30 Quick Fire Round: Celebrity Investors, Relationships with Parents

8 Joulu 202547min

20VC: Inside Bending Spoons Acquisition Machine: Evernote, Eventbrite, Vimeo | How Evernote Evaluates Acquisitions and New Product Ideas | How Evernote Mastered Product Launches, User Retention and Monetisation with Federico Simionato

20VC: Inside Bending Spoons Acquisition Machine: Evernote, Eventbrite, Vimeo | How Evernote Evaluates Acquisitions and New Product Ideas | How Evernote Mastered Product Launches, User Retention and Monetisation with Federico Simionato

Bending Spoons is the acquisition machine of the tech world. They have acquired the likes of Evernote, Vimeo, Eventbrite, Streamyard and more. However, they never open their gates to the secrets behind Evernote's product machine. Today that changes with Federico Simionato joining 20Product. Fede has been a Product Lead at Bending Spoons for 8 years where he has led product teams at Evernote, WeTransfer and more.   AGENDA: 03:02 From Dentist Games to $11BN Bending Spoons 04:54 Advice for Aspiring Product Managers 05:38 Building a Coveted Brand at Bending Spoons 07:43 Evaluating and Testing New Product Ideas 13:35 How Evernote has Mastered User Retention 25:24 The Impact of AI on Product Design and Prototyping 31:19 How Bending Spoons Does Product Launches and Lessons Learned 33:27 How Every Product Team Should Do Monthly Updates to Users 36:38 Recording and Transparency in Updates 38:06 Lessons from Failed Product Launches 45:14 Structuring Teams and Acquisitions 47:12 Monetization Strategies and Push Notifications 57:21 Quick Fire Round: Insights and Reflections

5 Joulu 20251h 5min

20VC: Thrive & OpenAI Partnership | Eventbrite Acquired for $500M | Databricks Raising $5BN at $134BN Valuation: Cheap or Not? | Why SaaS is Like Japan and The TAM Trap in Software

20VC: Thrive & OpenAI Partnership | Eventbrite Acquired for $500M | Databricks Raising $5BN at $134BN Valuation: Cheap or Not? | Why SaaS is Like Japan and The TAM Trap in Software

AGENDA: 04:20 Thrive and OpenAI Partnership  07:14 Databricks Raising $5BN at $134BN Valuation: Cheap or Not? 17:39 Eventbrite Acquired by Bending Spoons for $500M 21:39 Pagerduty's $1BN Market Cap, Just 2x Revenue 26:59 The TAM Trap: Why SaaS Is Like Japan 37:42 Lessons from Companies Hitting $100M ARR 44:57 The Future of Labour Markets is F****** 52:10 The Importance of Compounding in Investments 56:45 The Relevance Game in Venture Capital 01:05:01 Supabase at $5BN or Lovable at $6BN: Which One?

4 Joulu 20251h 12min

20VC: Scale, Surge, Turing, Mercor: Who Wins & Who Loses in Data Labelling | Is Revenue in Data Labelling Real or GMV? | Why 99% of Knowledge Work Will Go and What Happens Then? | Why SaaS is Dead in a World of AI with Jonathan Siddharth @ Turing

20VC: Scale, Surge, Turing, Mercor: Who Wins & Who Loses in Data Labelling | Is Revenue in Data Labelling Real or GMV? | Why 99% of Knowledge Work Will Go and What Happens Then? | Why SaaS is Dead in a World of AI with Jonathan Siddharth @ Turing

Jonathan Siddharth is Founder and CEO of Turing, one of the fastest-growing AI companies advancing frontier models. Jonathan has led the company to an astonishing $300M ARR with just $225M raised and a profitable company. A Stanford-trained AI scientist, Jonathan previously helped pioneer natural language search at Powerset, which was acquired by Microsoft. AGENDA: 03:35 Data, Compute, Algorithms: What is Most Abundant? What is Lacking Most? 09:18 What Does No One Know About AI's Data Requirements That Everyone Should? 17:05 The Biggest Challenges Enterprises Have with AI Adoption 20:38 Why Will 99% of Knowledge Work Will be Gone in 10 Years 27:12 How Will Data-Driven Feedback Loops Replace Technology as the Moat 36:08 Who Wins the Data Labelling Market? Who Loses? 38:23 Is Revenue BS in Data Labelling? Are Players Calling GMV Revenue?  45:20 Why is SaaS Dead in a World of AI? 51:23 Will the Phone be the Primary User Interface to an AI World? 57:07 Quickfire Round

1 Joulu 20251h 8min

20Sales: John McMahon on How to Hire, Train & Retain the Best Sales Reps | How Sales Changes in a World of AI | Sales Lessons from Snowflake and MongoDB | How to Create and Drive a Sales Process with Urgency

20Sales: John McMahon on How to Hire, Train & Retain the Best Sales Reps | How Sales Changes in a World of AI | Sales Lessons from Snowflake and MongoDB | How to Create and Drive a Sales Process with Urgency

John McMahon is widely regarded as one of the greatest enterprise-software sales leaders of all time. He's the only person to have served as Chief Revenue Officer at five public software companies: PTC, GeoTel, Ariba, BladeLogic and BMC Software. He helped scale BladeLogic from a startup into a public company — ultimately leading to its ~$880M sale to BMC — and drove GeoTel into a multi-billion dollar acquisition. Today he sits on the boards of top names such as Snowflake and MongoDB, while also mentoring and influencing a who's-who of modern SaaS sales leaders. AGENDA: 03:33 The Art and Science of Sales: Insights from a Veteran 04:29 Adapting Sales Strategies in the Age of AI and PLG 07:47 The Ultimate Framework to do Deal Qualification 14:13 How to Drive Urgency and Maintain Sales Process 20:06 How to Hire the Best Sales Reps 25:11 Step-by-Step Guide to Training Sales Reps 45:22 The Mindset of the Best Sales Reps 54:55 Single Most Important Skill to Win in Sales

28 Marras 20251h 8min

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