20VC: The OpenAI Memo: Why Invest? Is it too Late to Catch OpenAI? Are OpenAI's Models Truly Defensible? Does the Value in AI Accrue to Incumbemts or Startups - Application Layer/Infrastructure? What Happens with Regulation? with Vince Hankes @ Thrive

20VC: The OpenAI Memo: Why Invest? Is it too Late to Catch OpenAI? Are OpenAI's Models Truly Defensible? Does the Value in AI Accrue to Incumbemts or Startups - Application Layer/Infrastructure? What Happens with Regulation? with Vince Hankes @ Thrive

Vince Hankes is a Partner @ Thrive Capital where he has led the firm's investments in OpenAI, Melio, and Airplane.dev. He currently sits on the board of Airtable, Benchling, Lattice, and Melio. Prior to joining Thrive, Vince was an investor at Tiger Global where he learned the craft of venture from the legend that is Lee Fixel.

In Today's Episode with Vince Hankes We Discuss:

1. From Tiger Global to Partner @ Thrive Capital:

  • How Vince made his way into the world of investing with Tiger Global?
  • What are 1-2 of his biggest takeaways from working alongside the legendary Lee Fixel?
  • Why did Vince make the move from Tiger to Thrive? How do the two firms differ?

2. The OpenAI Investment: The Memo:

  • How did the OpenAI deal come to be? What were the round dynamics?
  • Market Evaluation: How did Vince and the team analyze the market top down?
  • Competition: Who did Vince identify as the core competitors to OpenAI?
  • Defensibility: How did Vince think through the long-term defensibility of OpenAI's model? Does Vince believe these models will become commoditised?
  • Price: How did Vince and the team get comfortable with the $29BN price?

3. AI: Hype or Generational Defining Transformation:

  • Trend or Transformation: Why does Vince believe AI will be the defining technology of our generation?
  • Startup vs Incumbent: Does Vince think the value will accrue to the incumbent or the startup?
  • Open or Closed: Does Vince think we will operate in a closed (one model rules them all) environment or an open-source environment with many models?
  • AI Talent: Where does Vince think the majority of the best AI talent will concentrate?
  • Speed: Why would Vince be scared if he were a startup today looking at the incumbents?

4. The Changing Investor: Lessons from Good and Bad:

  • How has Vince changed most significantly as an investor over time?
  • What has been his single biggest investing mistake? How did he learn from it?
  • What has been his biggest investing success? How did that change his mindset?
  • What has Thrive done in their org structure to allow them to make bets very few other firms can do?

Jaksot(1406)

20VC: OpenAI's Multi $BN Deal with AMD | Polymarket, Vercel and Supabase Raise Mega Rounds | Does King Making Really Work in Venture Capital: Harvey vs Legora | Chamath is Back: The SPAC is Back

20VC: OpenAI's Multi $BN Deal with AMD | Polymarket, Vercel and Supabase Raise Mega Rounds | Does King Making Really Work in Venture Capital: Harvey vs Legora | Chamath is Back: The SPAC is Back

AGENDA: 03:29 OpenAI and AMD's Major Partnership 07:35 Microsoft Have F***** Up the OpenAI Partnership 17:08 OpenAI's Developer Day Announcements 20:45 Why VC is the Most Forgiving Asset Class on Price and Valuation 29:10 What Does it Take to IPO in 2025: Why Snyk Will Not IPO 42:30 Four Strategies Companies Need to Take to Own Their Own Destiny 49:31 Vercel Raises $300M at $9BN: Suicide Round or Strategic 55:39 Does King Making Really Work in Venture Capital: Legora vs Harvey 01:08:11 Chamath Raises Latest SPAC: SPACs are Back 01:10:56 Polymarket Raises $2BN at a $9BN Valuation 01:14:53 Quick Fire Questions and Wrap-Up

9 Loka 20251h 24min

20VC: Cerebras CEO on Why Raise $1BN and Delay the IPO | NVIDIA Showing Signs They Are Worried About Growth | Concentration of Value in Mag7: Will the AI Train Come to a Halt | Can the US Supply the Energy for AI with Andrew Feldman

20VC: Cerebras CEO on Why Raise $1BN and Delay the IPO | NVIDIA Showing Signs They Are Worried About Growth | Concentration of Value in Mag7: Will the AI Train Come to a Halt | Can the US Supply the Energy for AI with Andrew Feldman

Andrew Feldman is Co-Founder & CEO of Cerebras, building the world's fastest AI inference and training. Cerebras recently closed a $1.1BN Series G round at an $8.1 billion valuation, backed by top names including Fidelity, Atreides, Tiger Global, Valor Equity and 1789 Capital. Under his leadership, they've leapfrogged GPU limits in inference, operate at trillions of tokens per month, and are filing to go public soon. AGENDA: 02:43 Why We Did Not IPO and Raised $1BN From Fidelity 05:03 Analysis of Chip and Compute Landscape Today 07:14 NVIDIA Showing Signs They Are Running Out of Ideas 13:57 The Real Questions to Ask on Chip Depreciation 24:54 Energy Requirements for AI: Is it Feasible? 29:25 Mag7 Value Concentration: Feature or a Bug 31:57 Talent is the Bottleneck and Trump Makes it Worse 32:55 The War for Talent: Secrets No One Sees 34:22 Evaluating the Data Centre Economy: Many Will Lose Money 38:01 Three Changes the US Could Make to Beat China in AI 42:30 Why 80% of our Revenues are in the UAE 47:26 Quick Fire Questions 58:59 Why Work Life Balance is Total BS

6 Loka 20251h 4min

20Growth: How to Use Influencers to Scale Growth Insanely Fast | How to Optimise User Onboaring for Growth | How the Best Growth Teams Create Organic Growth and Community | Why LTV/CAC Models are BS with Ketty Slonimsky

20Growth: How to Use Influencers to Scale Growth Insanely Fast | How to Optimise User Onboaring for Growth | How the Best Growth Teams Create Organic Growth and Community | Why LTV/CAC Models are BS with Ketty Slonimsky

Ketty Slonimsky is Chief Growth Officer at Palta, the platform behind apps like Flo (the #1 female health app with 77M+ MAU), Simple, and Zing AI, where she leads a centralized growth function across the portfolio. She was previously first VP Product & Growth at HeliosX (£900M+ ARR, bootstrapped D2C healthtech), has advised companies like SonderMind, Runna, Guardio, Cheddar, P&G Digital Ventures, and is a board advisor at HeliosX. AGENDA: 02:33 What is Growth and When to Hire For It 06:04 Three Profiles of Successful Growth Leaders 10:07 Challenges and Learnings from Failed Ventures 21:17 How to Optimise User Onboarding for Growth 26:14 Biggest Lessons on Retention 30:25 How to Artificially Create Organic Growth and Community Building 32:10 Why LTV Models are BS 37:35 How to Use Influencers to Grow Insanely Fast 47:07 The Metrics that Matter in Growth 49:48 Push Notifications and Engagement: What To Do vs What Not to Do? 51:57 Quick Fire Round

3 Loka 20251h

20VC: Are Burn Multiples BS in an AI World | Sam Altman Needs $1TRN of Energy | Klarna, Figma, Stubhub, all Down: Are Public Markets Turning? | FiveTran and DBT: Is the Wave of Consolidation About to Begin?

20VC: Are Burn Multiples BS in an AI World | Sam Altman Needs $1TRN of Energy | Klarna, Figma, Stubhub, all Down: Are Public Markets Turning? | FiveTran and DBT: Is the Wave of Consolidation About to Begin?

AGENDA: 03:58 Understanding Burn Multiples and Capital Efficiency in an AI World 11:54 What Metrics Founders Need to Focus on in a World of AI 19:31 The Role of Kingmakers in Venture Capital: Harvey, Abridge, Profound 33:42 Klarna, Figma, Stubhub, all Down: Are Public Markets Turning? 36:35 OpenAI Needs the Same Energy as Japan… WTF! 41:09 How Can We Fund the $1TRN Sam Altman Needs for Energy 52:39 FiveTran and DBT: Is the Wave of Consolidation About to Begin? 59:44 Does Private Equity Need to Change in a World of AI 01:06:23 Political Expression and Corporate Responsibility

2 Loka 20251h 16min

20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder

20VC: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips | NVIDIA Will Be Worth $10TRN | How to Solve the Energy Required for AI... Nuclear | Why China is Behind the US in the Race for AGI with Jonathan Ross, Groq Founder

Jonathan Ross is the Founder & CEO of Groq, the AI chip company redefining inference at scale. Under his leadership, Groq has raised over $3B from top investors. The company has reached a valuation of nearly $7B, positioning itself as one of NVIDIA's most formidable challengers. Previously at Google, Jonathan led the team that built the first Tensor Processing Unit (TPU), making him one of the leading architects of modern AI hardware. AGENDA: 00:00 The Future of AI and Compute 05:07 Why the Hyperscalers Have to Keep Spending Recklessly on AI 12:49 Why OpenAI and Anthropic Will Have to Build Their Own Chips 19:47 OpenAI and Anthropic Will be $5BN Companies: The Bull Case 29:50 Why China is Behind the US in AI and Deepseek is More Expensive to Run 33:55 How Europe Could Compete in AI and Why the US is More Risk Averse Than Europe 42:51 Why AI Will Lead to Too Many Not Too Few Jobs 43:19 Deflationary Pressures and New Job Markets 45:51 The Future of Vibe Coding 47:14 Why AI Companies Should Strive to Have Low Margins 49:31 Why We Have to Have Nuclear Energy and How to Bring it Back 56:55 How Permits are Ruining the Potential of AI 01:03:58 Why OpenAI and Anthropic are so Undervalued 01:16:53 Quickfire: Biggest Fear, Nvidia: $10TRN, Zuck Buying AI: Work or Not

29 Syys 20251h 21min

20Product: Revolut Business $1BN Revenue: Five of the Biggest Product Lessons | How Revolut Structures Product and Design Teams | How Revolut Experiments and Invests in New Product Bets | How Revolut Ships Product So Fast with James Gibson

20Product: Revolut Business $1BN Revenue: Five of the Biggest Product Lessons | How Revolut Structures Product and Design Teams | How Revolut Experiments and Invests in New Product Bets | How Revolut Ships Product So Fast with James Gibson

James Gibson is Head of Revolut Business. Under his leadership, Revolut Business now processes over $33 billion in monthly transaction volume and generates more than $1BN in annualised revenue. AGENDA: 04:10 Is Consulting the Worst Background for Aspiring PMs 07:09 How Revolut Hires for it's Product Team 17:21 How Revolut Sets Goals: What Works, What Does Not 19:37 How Revolut Structures Their Product Teams 22:13 How Revolut Structures Product Review Sessions 27:23 New Bets Process at Revolut 29:11 How Revolut Balances Super Users and General Customers 36:55 How Revolut Drives Product Velocity and Efficiency 39:26 Future of Product with AI 44:56 Quick Fire Questions and Reflections

26 Syys 202554min

20VC: NVIDIA Invests $100BN Into OpenAI | Is Triple, Triple, Double, Double Dead | Navan Files to go Public & Notion Hits $500M ARR | The Impact of H1B Visas on Startups in the US

20VC: NVIDIA Invests $100BN Into OpenAI | Is Triple, Triple, Double, Double Dead | Navan Files to go Public & Notion Hits $500M ARR | The Impact of H1B Visas on Startups in the US

AGENDA: 00:00 Why I am 100% Equities and 0% Cash 04:35 Nvidia's Massive $100BN Investment in OpenAI 08:39 Is Anthropic Negatively Positioned by OpenAI Gaining NVIDIA Investment 27:30 Is Triple, Triple, Double, Double Dead 44:00 Navan Files to Go Public at $8BN 49:31 Lockup Periods and Liquidity 50:35 Impact of H-1B Visa Changes on Startups 01:02:42: Notion Hits $500M ARR Re-Accelerating 01:09:42 Why Founder Friendly is Total BS Today

25 Syys 20251h 19min

20VC: General Catalyst CEO Hemant Taneja on The Future of Venture Capital: Chanel vs Walmart | Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM | Investing $5BN+ Into Stripe Over 14 Rounds | Investing Hundreds of Millions into Anthropic at $60BN Valuation

20VC: General Catalyst CEO Hemant Taneja on The Future of Venture Capital: Chanel vs Walmart | Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM | Investing $5BN+ Into Stripe Over 14 Rounds | Investing Hundreds of Millions into Anthropic at $60BN Valuation

Hemant Taneja is the CEO and leader of General Catalyst, the firm he has scaled over the last decade into one of the largest with over $40BN in AUM. He has been one of the most influential investors of the past two decades, leading early bets in Stripe, Snap, Gusto, Samsara, Grammarly, and Canva. He also played a pivotal role in Livongo's $18.5B merger with Teladoc, one of the largest digital health deals in history. AGENDA: 00:00 Introduction 03:37 Is Hemant a CEO or an Investor? 05:42 With $40BN AUM Is General Catalyst Still a VC Firm? 12:11 Has Trump Done More to Hurt or Help the US? 13:25 No One is Talking About the True Impact of AI on Jobs 21:30 Is Hemant Concerned by the Concentration of Value in MAG 7? 27:30 Has Trump Done More to Hurt or Help the US? 30:27 GC's Anthropic Investment: Upside from a $60BN Price 37:06 Do Margins Matter in a World of AI 45:23 Does Revenue Growth Matter in a World of AI 49:39 Why it is BS to Turn Down a Company Based on Price 56:06 We Have Invested $5BN Into Stripe Over 14 Rounds 01:00:02 VC is About To Be Flooded with Retail Investment: What Does It Mean for VC 01:08:51 "What I Learned Losing the Series A of Snap, Stripe, Samsara" 01:11:25 Future of Venture Capital: Walmart vs Chanel

22 Syys 20251h 27min

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