04 - Cardiff Garcia on Economics Journalism, Safe Assets, and Inflation

William A. Barnett is the Oswald Distinguished Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of Kansas and Director of the Center for Financial Stability. Today, Bill joins the show to discuss his work on better measurement of monetary aggregates in the economy. David and Bill also discuss Bill’s book *Getting It Wrong,* which argues that old simple-sum aggregates of the money supply are obsolete and that more sophisticated aggregates (called Divisia aggregates) are more appropriate in making decisions related to monetary policy. In Bill’s view, better financial data and better measurement of monetary aggregates would have averted the recent financial crisis. Finally, Bill also explains how he went from being a rocket scientist to a macroeconomist! David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth William Barnett’s University of Kansas profile: https://economics.ku.edu/william-barnett The Center for Financial Stability homepage: http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/ *Getting It Wrong: How Faulty Monetary Statistics Undermine the Fed, the Financial System, and the Economy* by William Barnett https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/getting-it-wrong

4 Joulu 201759min

Caroline Baum is an economics columnist at MarketWatch and formerly was a writer for Bloomberg and Dow Jones. Today, she joins the show to discuss how she became a financial journalist as a non-economics major as well as her recent columns on monetary policy and what Treasury bond yields are predicting about the future. She also shares her thoughts on why the debt ceiling should be abolished. Finally, Caroline and David discuss Jerome Powell and Fed leadership in the age of Trump. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Caroline Baum’s MarketWatch archive: https://www.marketwatch.com/topics/journalists/caroline-baum Caroline Baum’s Twitter: @cabaum1 Related links: “Bonds are from Venus; Stocks are from Mars” by Caroline Baum https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bonds-are-from-venus-stocks-are-from-mars-2017-11-14?mg=prod/accounts-mw “It’s Time to Get Rid of the Debt Ceiling” by Caroline Baum https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-to-get-rid-of-the-debt-ceiling-2017-09-07 “Fed Flunks Econ 101: Understanding Inflation” by Caroline Baum https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-flunks-econ-101-understanding-inflation-2017-10-18 “The Federal Reserve is Peddling ‘Tinkering Economics’ " by Caroline Baum https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-federal-reserve-is-peddling-tinker-bell-economics-2017-09-19

27 Marras 201749min

Nicholas Bloom is a professor of economics at Stanford University and is the co-director of the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship program at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Today, Nick joins the show to discuss his work on the causes and effects of economic uncertainty as well as how to measure uncertainty in an economy. David and Nick also discuss why productivity has slowed down in recent decades and why Nick is not especially optimistic that productivity will really improve anytime soon. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Nick Bloom’s Stanford University profile: https://people.stanford.edu/nbloom/ Related links: The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index http://www.policyuncertainty.com/ “Fluctuations in Uncertainty” by Nicholas Bloom http://www.nber.org/papers/w19714.pdf “Why has US Policy Uncertainty Risen since 1960?” by Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Brandice Canes-Wrone, Steven J. Davis, and Jonathan Rodden https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.104.5.56

20 Marras 201753min

Jeffrey Rogers Hummel is a professor of economics at San Jose State University and writes on macroeconomics and economic history. Today, Jeff joins the show to discuss his work on the Fed’s interventions during the Great Recession. He also dispels some myths about the extent to which the Fed really influences interest rates. Finally, he explains why he believes that cash plays an important role in society and why recent proposals to abolish cash are misguided. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Jeff Hummel’s San Jose State University profile: http://www.sjsu.edu/economics/faculty/jeff.hummel.html Related links: “Central Bank Control over Interest Rates: The Myth and the Reality” by Jeffery Rogers Hummel https://www.mercatus.org/publications/central-bank-control-interest-rates “Ben Bernanke vs. Milton Friedman: The Federal Reserve’s Emergence as the U.S. Economy’s Central Planner” by Jeffrey Rogers Hummel http://www.independent.org/publications/tir/article.asp?a=824 “The War on Cash: A Review of Kenneth Rogoff’s *The Curse of Cash*” by Jeffrey Rogers Hummel https://econjwatch.org/articles/the-war-on-cash-a-review-of-kenneth-rogoff-s-the-curse-of-cash

13 Marras 20171h 2min

Douglas Irwin is a professor of economics at Dartmouth College and a leading expert on trade economics. Today, he joins the show to discuss his new book, *Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy,* which examines the history of American trade policy from the late 1700s to the present. Doug explains how US attitudes toward trade evolved over time and how free trade became the postwar consensus. Specifically, Doug argues that the history of US trade policy has been guided by the “three R’s: revenue, restriction, and reciprocity.” Finally, David and Doug discuss some of Doug’s work on the gold standard and the Great Depression. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Douglas Irwin’s homepage: www.dartmouth.edu/~dirwin/ Douglas Irwin’s Twitter: @D_A_Irwin Related links: *Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy* by Douglas A. Irwin http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo24475328.html “Steve Bannon’s Bad History” by Douglas A. Irwin https://www.wsj.com/articles/steve-bannons-bad-history-1505861920 The Truth About Trade: What Critics Get Wrong About the Global Economy” (Foreign Affairs) by Douglas A. Irwin www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2016…h-about-trade *Free Trade Under Fire (Princeton University Press, fourth edition 2015)* by Douglas A. Irwin www.amazon.com/Free-Trade-under-…rth/dp/0691166250

6 Marras 201758min

Norbert Michel is the director of the Center for Data Analysis at the Heritage Foundation. Today, Norbert joins the show to discuss a new book of collected essays, which he edited, titled *Prosperity Unleashed: Smarter Financial Regulation.* Norbert pushes back against the narrative that deregulation caused the 2008 financial crisis and argues that excessive regulation hinders growth and actually makes the financial system less safe. He and David discuss policy recommendations made in the book, including reforming the Federal Reserve’s last-resort lending practices, converting the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) into a commission, and more. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Norbert Michel’s Heritage profile: http://www.heritage.org/staff/norbert-michel Norbert Michel’s Twitter: @norbertjmichel Related links: *Prosperity Unleashed: Smarter Financial Regulation* edited by Norbert J. Michel http://www.heritage.org/prosperity-unleashed “Reforming Last-Resort Lending: The Flexible Open-Market Alternative” by George Selgin http://www.heritage.org/markets-and-finance/report/reforming-last-resort-lending-the-flexible-open-market-alternative “Reforming the Financial Regulators” by Mark Calabria, Norbert Michel, and Hester Peirce http://www.heritage.org/markets-and-finance/report/reforming-the-financial-regulators “Money and Banking Provisions in the Financial CHOICE Act: A Major Step in the Right Direction” by Norbert Michel http://www.heritage.org/markets-and-finance/report/money-and-banking-provisions-the-financial-choice-act-major-step-the

30 Loka 20171h

Karl Smith is the director of economic research at the Niskanen Center. He joins the show to discuss his thoughts on increasing market power (the ability of firms to influence prices) in the United States. Karl argues that this is at least partially due to what he calls the “Great Variation,” the desire many Americans have had for more individualized consumer goods since the 1960s. Finally, Karl also shares his thoughts on some of President Trump’s choices for Federal Reserve chair. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Karl Smith’s Niskanen profile: https://niskanencenter.org/blog/staff/chief-economist/ Karl Smith’s Twitter: @karlbykarlsmith “Modeled Behavior”: https://www.forbes.com/sites/modeledbehavior/#661385b4a824 Related links: “Mark-Ups and Market Power” by Karl Smith https://niskanencenter.org/blog/markups-market-power/ “The Great Variation” by Karl Smith https://niskanencenter.org/blog/notes/the-great-variation/ https://niskanencenter.org/blog/notes/just-say-no-kevin-warsh/

23 Loka 201759min

Binyamin Appelbaum is an award-winning correspondent for the New York Times and covers the Federal Reserve and other aspects of economic policy. Today, he joins the show to discuss his work on covering the Fed and some ideas to improve Fed transparency. Binyamin also shares his thoughts on who President Trump may choose to fill vacancies on the Federal Reserve. Finally, Binyamin and David discuss what Trump’s trade policies may mean an increasingly globalized world. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Binyamin Appelbaum’s New York Times archive: https://www.nytimes.com/by/binyamin-appelbaum Binyamin’s Twitter: @BCAppelbaum Related links: “U.S. Inflation Remains Low and that’s a Problem” by Binyamin Appelbaum https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/24/us/politics/us-inflation-remains-low-and-thats-a-problem.html “Yellen and Cohn to Be on Shortlist to Lead Federal Reserve” by Binyamin Appelbaum https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/23/business/yellen-and-cohn-said-to-be-on-shortlist-for-new-head-of-the-fed.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fbinyamin-appelbaum&mtrref=www.nytimes.com&gwh=92BA8BF1D73950AA0455B7DF58B5E2FB&gwt=pay “A Look at Airbus’s Epic Assembly Line” by Binyamin Appelbaum and Christopher Payne https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/03/magazine/a-look-inside-airbuss-epic-assembly-line.html “American Companies Still Make Aluminum. In Iceland” by Binyamin Appelbaum https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/01/us/politics/american-companies-still-make-aluminum-in-iceland.html “Minorities Seen More Likely to Pay High Mortgage Rates” by Binyamin Appelbaum and Ted Millnik http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2005-09-03/news/0509030121_1_rates-for-mortgage-loans-interest-rates-lending-process

16 Loka 20171h