The $60 Billion Gold Surge: Why LNG is Ceding Its Place as Australia’s Second Largest Export?

Welcome to Inside the Economist's Mind. In this episode, we deep dive into the Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ) September 2025 report. We analyze the dramatic shifts reshaping Australia's export landscape.

The overall forecast projects that Australian resource and energy export earnings will decline by 5%, falling from $385 billion in 2024–25 to $369 billion in 2025–26. This overall decline masks a story of massive internal market volatility driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and accelerating global transitions.

Key Takeaways from the September 2025 REQ:

• Gold Overtakes LNG: We dissect how record-high gold prices, which climbed above US$3,700 an ounce in mid-September, are expected to offset declines in energy exports. Gold is forecast to surpass liquefied natural gas (LNG) to become Australia's second highest value export in 2025–26.
• The LNG Collapse: LNG export earnings are forecast to fall sharply from $65 billion in 2024–25 to $54 billion in 2025–26 and further to $48 billion in 2026–27. This decline is primarily price-driven, reflecting a rapid fall in oil prices (which feed into LNG contracts) and rising global supply from the US and Qatar.
• Clean Energy Demand & Base Metals: Discover the increasing demand pressures on copper. The commodity's price is forecast to rise due to a strong, structural uplift in demand that is not being matched by rising supply. This demand is being driven by the expansion of clean energy technologies and the explosive requirement for electricity infrastructure to support new AI data centers.
• Critical Mineral Growth: We examine the market dynamics affecting critical minerals, including the global oversupply keeping nickel prices subdued. Conversely, Australian export earnings for manganese and rare earth elements are expected to drive growth in the "other critical minerals" category, lifting earnings to $5.0 billion by 2026–27.

Join us as we explore the threats posed by softening world growth, rising trade barriers, and geopolitical tensions, and how these factors influence Australia's resource sector outlook.