GM89: When Credibility Becomes the Risk Premium ft. Maurice Obstfeld

GM89: When Credibility Becomes the Risk Premium ft. Maurice Obstfeld

Maurice Obstfeld joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at how the foundations of the global monetary system are shifting - and why much of the world is quietly preparing for a future without a stable dollar anchor. Drawing on decades in policy and research, Obstfeld explains how tariffs, fiscal dominance, and political interference are eroding the norms that once held the system together. They discuss the risk of fragmentation, the creeping politicization of the Fed, and why trust - not theory - is the real currency at stake. This is a conversation about power, credibility, and what happens when both start to slip.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Read more about Maurice here.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:18 - Introduction to Maurice Obstfeld

05:26 - The role and evolution of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)

08:14 - What has been the rationale for tariffs, and how has it impacted the economy?

11:13 - Has the viewpoint on tariffs shifted?

18:42 - How the changing monetary policy could undermine the dollar

27:19 - Does an alternative to the dollar even exist?

29:50 - What are the implications of moving away from the dollar?

34:20 - A possible financial repression incoming?

36:25 - The impact of an unusual approach to policy making domestically

39:16 - A fork in the road for the Fed

47:19 - From problem to crisis

51:32 - Is Obstfeld optimistic about AI?

53:06 - The end of the neoliberal era - what comes next?

58:00 - Advice for other investors 

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Tämä jakso on lisätty Podme-palveluun avoimen RSS-syötteen kautta eikä se ole Podmen omaa tuotantoa. Siksi jakso saattaa sisältää mainontaa.

Jaksot(928)

SI379: The Illusion of Safety in a Fully Invested Market ft. Cem Karsan

SI379: The Illusion of Safety in a Fully Invested Market ft. Cem Karsan

Niels and Cem reflect on a year marked by concentration, confidence, and growing structural fragility beneath calm markets. They examine extreme positioning, record low cash levels, and the quiet domi...

20 Joulu 20251h 10min

GM92: Politics in an Age of Hard Borders and Rising Hegemons ft. Gary Gerstle

GM92: Politics in an Age of Hard Borders and Rising Hegemons ft. Gary Gerstle

In this conversation, the veneer of political continuity is stripped back to reveal a world drifting toward harder borders, sharper identities and a reshaping of power once thought unthinkable. Gary G...

17 Joulu 20251h 10min

SI378: When Prices Stop Making Sense ft. Mark Rzepczynski

SI378: When Prices Stop Making Sense ft. Mark Rzepczynski

This episode examines markets through the lens of uncertainty rather than prediction. As the Federal Reserve delivers a rate cut amid dissent and conflicting signals, Alan and Mark explore what it mea...

13 Joulu 20251h 2min

TTU151: What Comes After 60/40? Systematic Thinking, BlackRock Style ft. Jeff Rosenberg

TTU151: What Comes After 60/40? Systematic Thinking, BlackRock Style ft. Jeff Rosenberg

Niels and Alan sit down with BlackRock’s Jeff Rosenberg to examine how the post Covid shift from too little to too much inflation is reshaping portfolios. Jeff explains why bond and equity correlation...

10 Joulu 20251h 13min

SI377: What's New in SG Indices in 2026? + The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio ft. Alan Dunne

SI377: What's New in SG Indices in 2026? + The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio ft. Alan Dunne

Niels and Alan explore how a fragile macro regime reshapes systematic investing, from a politicised Fed succession to widening cracks in a debt-laden, equity-dependent economy. A shifting bond landsca...

6 Joulu 20251h 8min

ALO32: AI Booms, Fiscal Strains and the New Macro Regime ft. Joe Little

ALO32: AI Booms, Fiscal Strains and the New Macro Regime ft. Joe Little

Alan Dunne speaks with HSBC Asset Management’s Global Chief Strategist, Joe Little, about what happens when the old macro rules stop working. Joe traces the shift from a demand led, low inflation worl...

3 Joulu 20251h 5min

SI376: What They’re Only Now Starting to See ft. Andrew Beer

SI376: What They’re Only Now Starting to See ft. Andrew Beer

In this week’s Systematic Investor episode, Niels and Andrew Beer explore how a broken 60/40 paradigm is forcing wealth managers into a new world of “other” diversifiers. Andrew reflects on the Goldma...

29 Marras 20251h 6min

IL43: The Land Trap: How Property Shapes Power ft. Mike Bird

IL43: The Land Trap: How Property Shapes Power ft. Mike Bird

In today’s episode we talk about the world’s oldest, and still most important asset: land. Our guest is the Economist’s Wall Street Editor Mike Bird. Mike is the author of a newly released book The La...

26 Marras 20251h

Suosittua kategoriassa Liike-elämä ja talous

sijotuskasti
mimmit-sijoittaa
rss-rahapodi
psykopodiaa-podcast
rss-oivalluksia-rahasta-elamasta
rss-rahamania
ostan-asuntoja-podcast
herrasmieshakkerit
rss-sami-miettinen-neuvottelija
rahapuhetta
sijoituspodi
rss-lahtijat
rss-paasipodi
rss-yritys-ja-erehdys
rss-viisas-raha-podi
inderespodi
hyva-paha-johtaminen
rss-startup-ministerio
rss-karon-grilli
rss-sisalto-kuntoon