Everybody Thinks AI Is a Bubble. What If They’re Wrong?

Last week the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage points, continuing one of the fastest escalations of the benchmark rate in history. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, warned that more pain was to come as the central bank fixes its eye on Sauron on our core inflation. But the theme of this episode is that U.S. interest rate policy does not stop at the U.S. border. Our monetary policy is a lever that moves the world. Soon after the Fed’s announcement last week, the British pound crashed, oil prices fell, currencies (crypto- and otherwise) fell, and the possibility of a global downturn came ever slightly into greater focus. Today’s guest is Jason Furman, the Harvard economist and former top economic adviser to President Barack Obama. We talk about the state of the U.S. economy, why the Fed is doing what it’s doing, the best arguments against rising interest rates, the global fallout of U.S. monetary policy, and the possibility that the world economy is headed for a dark, dark winter. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Jason Furman Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

27 Syys 202236min

American men have a problem. They account for less than 40 percent of new college graduates but roughly 70 percent of drug overdose deaths and more than 80 percent of gun violence deaths. As the left has struggled to offer a positive vision of masculinity, male voters have abandoned the Democratic Party at historically high rates. Brookings Institution scholar Richard Reeves, the author of a new book 'Of Boys and Men,' joins the show to ask and answer a number of controversial questions: Why do women out-achieve men throughout education? Why are men dropping out of the labor force? Why can't Democrats win the male vote? And what would a progressive and positive vision of masculinity look like? If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Richard Reeves Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

23 Syys 202250min

Today’s episode is about the science of self-talk—and how our relationship to our own inner monologue can become toxic. Psychologist Ethan Kross joins the show to explain his work on emotion regulation, his book 'Chatter' on the science of negative self-talk, why the ability to have an inner monologue can be a kind of superpower, and how to harness it. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_.Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Ethan Kross Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

20 Syys 202255min

While the broader economy is almost certainly not in a recession, the U.S. housing market is facing a painful reset. As the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to reduce inflation, the most rate-sensitive sector of the economy—which is housing—is taking it on the chin. Today's guest, Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, breaks down the queasy state of the U.S. housing market, the prospect of a correction, what nationwide falling housing prices will mean for the broader economy, the global synchronized decline in housing, and how China's extremely bizarre year is affecting our economy. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Mark Zandi Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

15 Syys 202238min

In 2015, 193 world leaders agreed to 17 ambitious goals to end poverty, fight inequality, and stop climate change by 2030. Seven years in, the world is on track to achieve almost none of those goals, according to a new report from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. But the world really is getting better, the founder and philanthropist Bill Gates tells Derek in this episode. Around the globe, poverty, hunger, and child mortality rates are falling. Income, health care coverage, and lifespans are growing. Bill and Derek talk about the “best news in the world,” why genetics is the most exciting domain in all of science, and how Gates is helping to build the future of food in Africa. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Bill Gates Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

13 Syys 202228min

We're in a new phase of the Ukraine-Russia war. Paul Poast of the University of Chicago returns to the podcast to break down Ukraine's extraordinary counteroffensive. He explains why this counterattack is reminiscent of D-Day, why President Vladimir Putin continues to struggle to achieve his objectives, and whether the end of the war could be within sight. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Paul Poast Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

12 Syys 202250min

Hours before the death of Queen Elizabeth II, Derek talked to Duncan Weldon, the Britain economics correspondent at The Economist, about the UK's political and economic challenge. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent energy prices soaring across Europe, but few countries have it worse than the UK, where inflation skyrocketed past 10 percent and the Bank of England projects a deep and lasting recession. This comes after a 15-year period of utter economic stagnation, Brexit, and the clown show of Boris Johnson. How did the UK, the birthplace of modern capitalism and the industrial revolution, become such an economic and political disaster? And will the queen's death affect the nation's trajectory? If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Duncan Weldon Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

8 Syys 202250min

Students are going back to school this month. But according to many news sources, there won't be nearly enough teachers to greet them. The Washington Post has warned of a “catastrophic teacher shortage.” ABC World News Tonight called it a new “growing crisis,” and the Wall Street Journal warned of a “dog-eat-dog” scramble to hire underqualified instructors. Heather Schwartz, a senior policy researcher at the Rand Corporation, explains why she thinks the "national teacher shortage" narrative is overblown, why declining teacher morale is a real story, and what's really happening in American public education today. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Heather Schwartz Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

6 Syys 202238min