DO 285 - AI and The 95% Extinction Threshold
Doomer Optimism21 Loka 2025

DO 285 - AI and The 95% Extinction Threshold

AI safety researcher Nate Soares explains why he believes there's at least a 95% chance that current AI development will lead to human extinction, and why we're accelerating toward that outcome. Soares, who has been working on AI alignment since 2012, breaks down the fundamental problem: we're building increasingly intelligent systems without any ability to control what they actually want or pursue.The conversation covers current AI behavior that wasn't programmed: threatening users, keeping psychotic people in delusional states, and repeatedly lying when caught. Soares explains why these aren't bugs to be fixed but symptoms of a deeper problem. We can't point AI systems at any specific goal, not even something simple like "make a diamond." Instead, we get systems with bizarre drives that are only distantly related to their training.Soares addresses the "racing China" argument and why it misunderstands the threat. He explains why AI engineers can build powerful systems without understanding what's actually happening inside them, and why this matters. Using examples from evolutionary biology, he shows why there's no reason to expect AI systems to develop human-like morality or values.The discussion covers why a catastrophic warning event probably won't help, what international coordination could look like, and why current safety efforts fall short of what's needed. Soares is direct about industry motivations, technical limitations, and the timeline we're facing.Nate Soares has been researching AI alignment and safety since 2012. He works at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), one of the pioneering organizations focused on ensuring advanced AI systems are aligned with human values.


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DO 287 - Graze Against the Machine: Breaking Up Big Ag, Rewilding America, and the Future of Food

DO 287 - Graze Against the Machine: Breaking Up Big Ag, Rewilding America, and the Future of Food

Fresh from dinner with Wendell Berry in Kentucky, the crew discusses Paul Kingsnorth’s new book and the deep tensions in American agriculture. From Trump’s controversial beef deal with Argentina to th...

4 Marras 20251h 9min

DO 286 - Building a Regenerative Landscaping Business with Tres of GreenBox Homes

DO 286 - Building a Regenerative Landscaping Business with Tres of GreenBox Homes

Creating member networks, local food systems, and recession-proof community infrastructureJason talks with Tres, co-founder of GreenBox Homes, about creating a regenerative landscaping company that co...

28 Loka 20251h 10min

DO 284 - Group Chat Live

DO 284 - Group Chat Live

Join the Doomer Optimism crew for their first-ever live group chat as they tackle the big questions facing our technologically saturated world. Ashley, Nate, Jason, Peter, and Patrick gather to discus...

14 Loka 20251h 29min

DO 283 - Kevin Ryan's Grassroots Run for Illinois

DO 283 - Kevin Ryan's Grassroots Run for Illinois

Ashley talks with Kevin Ryan, a Marine Corps veteran and public school teacher running for U.S. Senate in Illinois without corporate donors, consultants, or ad buys. Kevin describes his campaign from ...

7 Loka 202557min

DO 282 - John Heers and Ashley on Learning Humility from Georgian Dinners and Forgotten Villages

DO 282 - John Heers and Ashley on Learning Humility from Georgian Dinners and Forgotten Villages

Against efficiency and isolation: learning humility from forgotten communities and the ancient art of the Georgian feastJohn Heers, founder of First Things Foundation, joins Ashley to discuss his unco...

30 Syys 20251h 16min

DO 281 - Tucker Max's Journey to Radical Self-Sufficiency with Dr. Chris Ellis

DO 281 - Tucker Max's Journey to Radical Self-Sufficiency with Dr. Chris Ellis

Dr. Chris Ellis interviews Tucker Max, who shares his transformative journey from bestselling author to homesteader, focusing on resiliency and self-sufficiency. Tucker discusses the impact of COVID-1...

23 Syys 20251h 15min

DO 280 - Building Resilience in Modern Society with Dr. Chris Ellis and Jonathan Rawles

DO 280 - Building Resilience in Modern Society with Dr. Chris Ellis and Jonathan Rawles

Generational Perspectives on Preparedness with Dr. Chris Ellis and Jonathan RawlesDr. Chris Ellis sits down with Jonathan Rawles, mechanical engineer, author, and co-founder of Survival Realty, to exp...

16 Syys 202530min

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