Doomer Optimism21 Loka 2025

DO 285 - AI and The 95% Extinction Threshold

AI safety researcher Nate Soares explains why he believes there's at least a 95% chance that current AI development will lead to human extinction, and why we're accelerating toward that outcome. Soares, who has been working on AI alignment since 2012, breaks down the fundamental problem: we're building increasingly intelligent systems without any ability to control what they actually want or pursue.The conversation covers current AI behavior that wasn't programmed: threatening users, keeping psychotic people in delusional states, and repeatedly lying when caught. Soares explains why these aren't bugs to be fixed but symptoms of a deeper problem. We can't point AI systems at any specific goal, not even something simple like "make a diamond." Instead, we get systems with bizarre drives that are only distantly related to their training.Soares addresses the "racing China" argument and why it misunderstands the threat. He explains why AI engineers can build powerful systems without understanding what's actually happening inside them, and why this matters. Using examples from evolutionary biology, he shows why there's no reason to expect AI systems to develop human-like morality or values.The discussion covers why a catastrophic warning event probably won't help, what international coordination could look like, and why current safety efforts fall short of what's needed. Soares is direct about industry motivations, technical limitations, and the timeline we're facing.Nate Soares has been researching AI alignment and safety since 2012. He works at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), one of the pioneering organizations focused on ensuring advanced AI systems are aligned with human values.

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Episode 47 - Simon Mostafa w/ Dr. Josh Kearns and Jason Snyder

The guest on this episode of Doomer Optimism is world traveler and do-gooder Simon Mostafa, who joined hosts Josh Kearns (@HillbillyNarnia) and Jason Snyder (@cognazor) from Spain, where he is current...

16 Kesä 20221h 15min

Episode 46 - James Ellis w/ Ashley Colby and Jason Snyder

On this episode of Doomer Optimism, first-time hosts Ashley Colby (@RizomaSchool) and Jason Snyder (@cognazor) have a beautiful conversation with the Meta Nomad himself, James Ellis (@meta_nomad). Fro...

14 Kesä 20221h 23min

Episode 45 - Scott Johnson w/ Ashley Colby and Dr. Josh Kearns

On this episode of Doomer Optimism, first time host Josh Kearns (@HillbillyNarnia) teams up with Ashley Colby (@RizomaSchool) to discuss potential low tech futures with Scott Johnson (@Low_Techno), th...

10 Kesä 20221h 26min

Episode 44 - Magnus Popp w/ Ashley Colby

On this episode of Doomer Optimism we're going down south with Magnus Popp and Ashley Colby (@RizomaSchool), two Doomer Optimists that are cutting a new path forward in Uruguay. In this wide-ranging c...

7 Kesä 20221h 7min

Episode 43 - Rich Bartlett w/ Ashley Colby

Our 43rd episode of Doomer Optimism sees Ashley Colby (@RizomaSchool) having a one on one chat with Rich Bartlett (@RichDecibels), writer, intellectual, and founder of Loomio and The Hum. Conversation...

2 Kesä 20221h 41min

Episode 42 - James Pogue w/ Donald Antenen

On this episode, first time-host Donald Antenen (@riversofeurope) has an intimate conversation with writer and essayist James Pogue (@jhensonpogue), who is fresh off the release of his powerhouse arti...

1 Kesä 20221h 46min

Doomer Optimism x Future Fossils Cross-Over Event!

On this very special Doomer Optimism interlude, we drop in on our intrepid hosts, Ashley Colby and Jason Snyder, as they mix it up with Michael Garfield and the folks at Future Fossils. It was such a ...

26 Touko 20221h 36min

Episode 40 - Tiger Lily and Willow w/ Ashley Colby

On this episode, Ashley Colby (@RizomaSchool) has a conversation about Based Momming with Willow (@willlowthewhisp) and Tiger Lily (@Butterrespecter). Health, home birthing, and growing based families...

24 Touko 20221h 14min