Doomer Optimism21 Loka 2025

DO 285 - AI and The 95% Extinction Threshold

AI safety researcher Nate Soares explains why he believes there's at least a 95% chance that current AI development will lead to human extinction, and why we're accelerating toward that outcome. Soares, who has been working on AI alignment since 2012, breaks down the fundamental problem: we're building increasingly intelligent systems without any ability to control what they actually want or pursue.The conversation covers current AI behavior that wasn't programmed: threatening users, keeping psychotic people in delusional states, and repeatedly lying when caught. Soares explains why these aren't bugs to be fixed but symptoms of a deeper problem. We can't point AI systems at any specific goal, not even something simple like "make a diamond." Instead, we get systems with bizarre drives that are only distantly related to their training.Soares addresses the "racing China" argument and why it misunderstands the threat. He explains why AI engineers can build powerful systems without understanding what's actually happening inside them, and why this matters. Using examples from evolutionary biology, he shows why there's no reason to expect AI systems to develop human-like morality or values.The discussion covers why a catastrophic warning event probably won't help, what international coordination could look like, and why current safety efforts fall short of what's needed. Soares is direct about industry motivations, technical limitations, and the timeline we're facing.Nate Soares has been researching AI alignment and safety since 2012. He works at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), one of the pioneering organizations focused on ensuring advanced AI systems are aligned with human values.

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Episode 23 - Sean Dixon-Sullivan with Tres Crow and Dr. Ashley Colby

On this episode of Doomer Optimism, Tres Crow (@dogeatcrow) and Dr. Ashley Colby (@RizomaSchool) managed an international three-way call with Sean Dixon-Sullivan (@NextSuccession), the luminary behind...

11 Maalis 202258min

Episode 22 - Visakan Veerasamy with Tres Crow and Dr. Jason Snyder

On this episode of Doomer Optimism, Tres Crow (@dogeatcrow) and Dr. Jason Snyder (@cognazor) managed to snag Visakan Veerasamy (@visakanv), the Friendly, Ambitious Nerd himself, for a convo about the ...

9 Maalis 20221h 37min

Episode 21 - Ali Katz w/ Dr. Ashley Colby and Steven Morris

On this episode of Doomer Optimism, Dr. Ashley Colby (@RizomaSchool) and Steven Morris (@lifesmyth) sit down with family, financial and legal expert Ali Katz (@thealikatz)for a conversation about lean...

1 Maalis 20221h 21min

Episode 20 - Vince Horn w/ Dr. Jason Snyder

On this episode of Doomer Optimism, Dr. Jason Snyder (@cognazor)has a discussion with Vince Horn (@VinceFHorn)about Buddhism, homesteading, and what it means to find peace (and even joy) in our curren...

23 Helmi 20221h 21min

Episode 19 - Josh Kearns w/ Dr. Jason Snyder and Dr. Ashley Colby

On this episode of Doomer Optimism, Dr. Ashley Colby (@RizomaSchool) and Dr. Jason Snyder (@cognazor) sit down with Dr. Josh Kearns, an environmental chemist and engineer with a specialty in appropria...

17 Helmi 20221h 25min

Episode 18 - Tara Theike w/ Dr. Ashley Colby and William Wheelwright

On this episode of Doomer Optimism, Dr. Ashley Colby (@RizomaSchool) and returning guest William Wheelwright (@ploughmansfolly) chat with Tara Ann Thieke (@TaraAnnThieke), a homemaker, writer, and int...

15 Helmi 20221h 20min

Episode 17 - Jordan Hall w/ Joe Norman and Josh Heling

On this episode, returning hosts Joe Norman (@normonics) and Josh Heling (@jrheling) have an in-depth discussion with the philosopher and Game B theorist, Jordan Hall (@jgreenhall). About Jordan Hall...

2 Helmi 20221h 50min

Episode 16 - The end of Season 0 with Ashley, Jason, and Tres

Season 0 ends with Dr. Ashley Colby (@RizomaSchool), Dr. Jason Snyder (@cognazor), and 1/2 Dr. Tres Crow (@DogEatCrow) chatting about what went wrong, what went right, and what's ahead for the Doomer ...

24 Tammi 20221h 12min