Doomer Optimism21 Loka 2025

DO 285 - AI and The 95% Extinction Threshold

AI safety researcher Nate Soares explains why he believes there's at least a 95% chance that current AI development will lead to human extinction, and why we're accelerating toward that outcome. Soares, who has been working on AI alignment since 2012, breaks down the fundamental problem: we're building increasingly intelligent systems without any ability to control what they actually want or pursue.The conversation covers current AI behavior that wasn't programmed: threatening users, keeping psychotic people in delusional states, and repeatedly lying when caught. Soares explains why these aren't bugs to be fixed but symptoms of a deeper problem. We can't point AI systems at any specific goal, not even something simple like "make a diamond." Instead, we get systems with bizarre drives that are only distantly related to their training.Soares addresses the "racing China" argument and why it misunderstands the threat. He explains why AI engineers can build powerful systems without understanding what's actually happening inside them, and why this matters. Using examples from evolutionary biology, he shows why there's no reason to expect AI systems to develop human-like morality or values.The discussion covers why a catastrophic warning event probably won't help, what international coordination could look like, and why current safety efforts fall short of what's needed. Soares is direct about industry motivations, technical limitations, and the timeline we're facing.Nate Soares has been researching AI alignment and safety since 2012. He works at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), one of the pioneering organizations focused on ensuring advanced AI systems are aligned with human values.

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DO 263 - What's the matter with Texas? w/ Casey Spinks and James Decker

Casey Spinks joins Mayor James Decker to discuss Texas's complex political and cultural landscape, focusing on the tensions between urban, suburban, and rural areas.The discussion highlights the histo...

8 Huhti 202545min

DO 262 - Ontology, or On Sunscreen w/ Olek Pisera and Ashley

Understanding Risk in a Modern SocietyAshley interviews Olek Pisera, a recent PhD graduate in biomedical engineering. They discuss various topics, including the importance of independent thinking in s...

1 Huhti 20251h 19min

DO 261 - John Lechner and James Pogue

James Pogue interviews John Lechner, a journalist and author who has extensively covered the Wagner Group and its influence in Africa, particularly in the Central African Republic. They discuss John's...

25 Maalis 20251h 49min

DO 260 - Hannah's Children w/ Catherine Pakaluk, Roxanne Ahern and Ashley

Roxanne Ahern and Katherine Pakalak, join Ashley to discuss the pressing issue of declining birth rates and the cultural implications of antinatalism. They explore the grim trends in population declin...

18 Maalis 20251h 16min

DO 259 - Anti-Monopoly

Where do we go from here?Antitrust lawyer Basel Musharbash joins Ashley and Nate to explore anti-monopoly advocacy's historical and contemporary landscape. They discuss the evolution of antitrust laws...

11 Maalis 20251h 8min

DO 258 - Enchantment, Magic, & Supernatural technologies w/ Historian Dr. Francis Young

Enchantment, Magic, & Supernatural Technologies w/ Historian Dr. Francis Young"Is magic real? Does magic work?""It's a question that is worth asking.""The world is full of spirits."Enchantment is fast...

4 Maalis 202557min

DO 257 - Building the Benedict Option w/ Leah Sargeant and Ashley

Community in a Fragmented WorldIn this episode of the Doomer Optimism podcast, host Ashley and guest Leah Sargent discuss the importance of building community in today's world. Leah shares insights fr...

25 Helmi 202556min

DO 256 - Political Agency with Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and James

Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez joins DO to discuss her unique perspective as a Congresswoman from a rural background, covering environmentalism, localism, and the importance of agency in politics. She c...

18 Helmi 202557min