201. Battery Boom or Policy Bust? The Big EV Divergence - Oct25

We are in the middle of a battery boom, for EVs and even more for BESS. What's really happening in the electric vehicle (EV) market? Is China dominating the field, or are serious alternatives emerging? What roles are Europe, the U.S., and other global regions playing? Which chemistries are winning out, and how are prices trending?

These are the questions we ask ourselves every day — and today, Gerard and Laurent are thrilled to have someone who can help us answer them. Laurent and Gerard are joined by the brilliant Iola Hughes, Head of Research at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, following its acquisition of Rho Motion.

Iola leads research across the battery demand spectrum — from EVs to stationary storage — managing forecasts, tracking battery chemistries, and analyzing the impact of everything from regulation to OEM strategies and technology roadmaps. According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence and Rho Motion, as of 2025:

• The Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) sector is growing at 40% year-over-year
• The EV market is expanding by 25% year-over-year

But perhaps the most surprising trend is that forecasts made just 18 months ago are being exceeded — in nearly every region except the United States. There, the current administration appears to be kneecapped the industry by rolling back both incentives (like tax credits) and regulations (such as CAFE and emissions standards). Nissan in the US is moving back from EVs to hybrids while GM passes billions of impairments.

On the industrial side, it’s increasingly a case of China versus the world. China now has the capacity to manufacture a staggering 50 million vehicles per year, far outpacing domestic demand and sparking concerns about overcapacity.

In summary: we are witnessing a growing divide in the global battery and EV space. China is clearly in the lead. Europe and others are racing to catch up. And the U.S.? It’s at risk of falling further behind — not for lack of potential, but because of political and policy choices.

https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/iolahughes/
https://x.com/RhoMoIola

Stunning visuals from FT on the development of batteries (most of the sources came from Benchmark)
https://ig.ft.com/mega-batteries