Tara Sinclair on Building a Synthetic FOMC Through AI

Tara Sinclair on Building a Synthetic FOMC Through AI

Tara Sinclair is a professor and chair of the economics department at George Washington University. Tara returns to the show to discuss her ambitious paper simulating an FOMC meeting before it happens with LLM models, the process of building sim FOMC members, the importance of publicly funding economic data, the future of AI and macroeconomics, and much more.

Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links.

Recorded on October 27th, 2025

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Timestamps

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:44 - Data and Policymaking

00:05:28 - Federal Forecasters Conference

00:08:01 - FOMC in Silico

00:32:56 - Future Applications

00:38:29 - Broader Implications

00:42:57 - Central Bank Governance and AI

00:51:40 - Outro

Jaksot(531)

03 - John Cochrane on Finance, the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, and Blogging

03 - John Cochrane on Finance, the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, and Blogging

In this episode, John Cochrane, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and blogger at The Grumpy Economist, discusses his journey into economics and finance with host David Beckworth. They also discuss the controversial fiscal theory of the price level, which argues that fiscal policy, not monetary policy set by central banks, primarily determines inflation. David's blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ John Cochrane's blog: http://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/ John Cochrane's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JohnHCochrane Links from today's conversation: http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/john.cochrane/research/papers/Campbell_Cochrane_By_Force_of_Habit_(JPE).pdf http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/john.cochrane/research/papers/New_Structure.pdf http://isites.harvard.edu/fs/docs/icb.topic500592.files/sargent%20wallace.pdf

25 Huhti 201657min

02 - John Taylor on the Taylor Rule, the 2008 Crisis, and Fed Reform

02 - John Taylor on the Taylor Rule, the 2008 Crisis, and Fed Reform

John Taylor of Stanford University and the Hoover Institution joins host David Beckworth to discuss Taylor's famous monetary rule for central banks in setting interest rates in response to changes in inflation and output. They discuss how Taylor discovered the rule and how it has performed over time. Taylor also shares his thoughts for improving current Federal Reserve policy. David's blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com John Taylor's blog: http://economicsone.com/ Links from today's conversation: http://web.stanford.edu/~johntayl/Papers/Discretion.PDF http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20120606a.htm http://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/jmcb_lecture.pdf http://www.hoover.org/press-releases/hoover-press-getting-track-how-government-actions-and-interventions-caused-prolonged https://huizenga.house.gov/uploadedfiles/3189.fed.reform.section.by.section.pdf

18 Huhti 201656min

01 - Scott Sumner on *The Midas Paradox*, the Fed, and More

01 - Scott Sumner on *The Midas Paradox*, the Fed, and More

Welcome to Macro Musings, a new podcast exploring the important macroeconomic issues of the past, present, and future. In the inaugural episode, Scott Sumner joins host David Beckworth to talk about Scott's new book *The Midas Paradox*, which advances a bold new explanation of what caused the Great Depression. They also discuss Scott's path into macro and monetary economics as well as what the Fed got wrong in 2008. David's blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com Scott's blog: http://www.themoneyillusion.com/ Links from today's conversation: http://www.amazon.com/The-Midas-Paradox-Government-Depression/dp/1598131508 http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/27/opinion/subprime-reasoning-on-housing.html?_r=0

31 Maalis 201655min

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