“More EAs should consider working for the EU” by EU Policy Careers
Context: The authors are a few EAs who currently work or have previously worked at the European Commission. In this post, we make the case that more people[1] aiming for a high impact career should c...
2 Helmi 11min
“The Scaling Series Discussion Thread: with Toby Ord” by Toby Tremlett🔹
We're trying something a bit new this week. Over the last year, Toby Ord has been writing about the implications of the fact that improvements in AI require exponentially more compute. Only one of the...
2 Helmi 2min
[Linkpost] “Are the Costs of AI Agents Also Rising Exponentially?” by Toby_Ord
This is a link post. There is an extremely important question about the near-future of AI that almost no-one is asking. We’ve all seen the graphs from METR showing that the length of tasks AI agents ...
2 Helmi 15min
[Linkpost] “Evidence that Recent AI Gains are Mostly from Inference-Scaling” by Toby_Ord
This is a link post. In the last year or two, the most important trend in modern AI came to an end. The scaling-up of computational resources used to train ever-larger AI models through next-token pre...
2 Helmi 10min
[Linkpost] “The Extreme Inefficiency of RL for Frontier Models” by Toby_Ord
This is a link post. The new scaling paradigm for AI reduces the amount of information a model can learn from per hour of training by a factor of 1,000 to 1,000,000. I explore what this means and its ...
2 Helmi 14min
[Linkpost] “Inference Scaling Reshapes AI Governance” by Toby_Ord
This is a link post. The shift from scaling up the pre-training compute of AI systems to scaling up their inference compute may have profound effects on AI governance. The nature of these effects depe...
2 Helmi 34min
[Linkpost] “Is there a Half-Life for the Success Rates of AI Agents?” by Toby_Ord
This is a link post. Building on the recent empirical work of Kwa et al. (2025), I show that within their suite of research-engineering tasks the performance of AI agents on longer-duration tasks can ...
2 Helmi 19min
[Linkpost] “Inference Scaling and the Log-x Chart” by Toby_Ord
This is a link post. Improving model performance by scaling up inference compute is the next big thing in frontier AI. But the charts being used to trumpet this new paradigm can be misleading. While t...
2 Helmi 16min
