The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

On this episode, Daniel Schmachtenberger returns to discuss a surprisingly overlooked risk to our global systems and planetary stability: artificial intelligence. Through a systems perspective, Daniel and Nate piece together the biophysical history that has led humans to this point, heading towards (and beyond) numerous planetary boundaries and facing geopolitical risks all with existential consequences. How does artificial intelligence, not only add to these risks, but accelerate the entire dynamic of the metacrisis? What is the role of intelligence vs wisdom on our current global pathway, and can we change course? Does artificial intelligence have a role to play in creating a more stable system or will it be the tipping point that drives our current one out of control?  About Daniel Schmachtenberger: Daniel Schmachtenberger is a founding member of The Consilience Project, aimed at improving public sensemaking and dialogue.  The throughline of his interests has to do with ways of improving the health and development of individuals and society, with a virtuous relationship between the two as a goal. Towards these ends, he’s had particular interest in the topics of catastrophic and existential risk, civilization and institutional decay and collapse as well as progress, collective action problems, social organization theories, and the relevant domains in philosophy and science. For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/71-daniel-schmachtenberger  To watch this video episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/_P8PLHvZygo

17 Touko 20233h 12min

Last Friday we released Nate's annual Earth Day presentation for 2023: a reflection on ~3 dozen common English words which are semantically disconnected from what they really mean - paired alongside more biophysically accurate terms. Building on that theme, this week’s Frankly is a thought experiment of which ecological and systems concepts do not exist in the English language - but perhaps should. All of this is to say, the semantics and connotations of our language are extremely powerful and have direct impacts on the way we think and act. Could shaping our speech to be more accurate, empathetic, and comprehensive cause our aggregate actions to do the same? For Show notes and more: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/30-missing-words To Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/wDLTkAad3rY

12 Touko 202314min

On this episode, former Governor of Oregon and ER Doctor John Kitzhaber joins Nate to discuss the shortcomings of the medical system in the United States. With health outcomes below average compared to other developed nations and healthcare spending at nearly 20% of GDP, creating medical systems that are less costly while also keeping people healthier is critical to the well-being of the country and its citizens. Dr. Kitzhaber’s hands-on experience working in medicine and systemic perspective as a policymaker gives him a unique perspective on healthcare resource allocation, the effectiveness of medicine, and the real world effects of how we incentivize medical care. Can we extend our time horizons by making long-term investments in the most effective preventative care? How do we take care of more people with fewer resources available? Most of all, can we come together to think critically about how we can create a system that prioritizes holistic health, based in community and accessible to everyone? About John Kitzhaber John Kitzhaber has more than 40 years of experience in health care and health policy in both public and private sectors. He practiced as an emergency room physician for 15 years; served 14 years in the Oregon Legislature, and served three terms as Governor of the State of Oregon. Kitzhaber is the author of the groundbreaking Oregon Health Plan, through which hundreds of thousands of low- and moderate-income Oregon families gain access to health care. During his third term as Governor, Kitzhaber was the chief architect of Oregon’s Coordinated Care Organizations, the first effort in the country created on a statewide basis to meet the Triple Aim—better health, better quality, lower cost—with a focus on community and population health. To watch this video episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/Z4cjl77rj78  Show Notes & Links to Learn More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/70-john-kitzhaber

10 Touko 202350min

For this year’s Earth Day presentation, I highlight common terms in the English language - the meanings of which we've come to take for granted. These words semantically imbue our understanding, perspective, and even behavior but have become untethered from the systemic reality they attempt to describe. Words have power. What we call things and how we describe things matters.   This presentation is recommended to be viewed on Youtube with the accompanying visuals, but can still be listened to and understood in audio-only form.    Thanks to my team - Leslie Batt-Lutz, Lizzy Sirianni, Luke Robert Mason, and Jason Figueredo for putting this together. Also thanks (as always) to my friend DJ White for helpful input. Thanks to Joan Diamond, Kyle Saunders, Maia Nillson, Rex Weyler for helpful input.

8 Touko 202340min

In this episode, Dr. Robert Lustig joins Nate to dive into the metabolism of the micro level of human systems - the humans ourselves. Over the last century, accompanying the transformation of our energy systems, our food and consumption patterns have been massively transformed. One of the biggest areas of change is the dramatic increase in sugar consumption. But are our bodies adapted to eating such high sugar, processed foods? What are the health effects connected to this way of eating? And, writ large, how does our metabolic dysfunction as individuals contribute to the energy hungry global Superorganism? What are the systemic drivers that currently prevent a shift towards healthier food systems? Can changing how we eat make us healthier - and thus better equipped to face the complex challenges of the metacrisis? About Robert Lustig: Robert H. Lustig, M.D., M.S.L. is Emeritus Professor of Pediatrics in the Division of Endocrinology, and Member of the Institute for Health Policy Studies at UCSF. Dr. Lustig is a neuroendocrinologist, with expertise in metabolism, obesity, and nutrition. He is one of the leaders of the current “anti-sugar” movement that is changing the food industry. He has dedicated his retirement from clinical medicine to help to fix the food supply any way he can, to reduce human suffering and to salvage the environment. Dr. Lustig graduated from MIT in 1976, and received his M.D. from Cornell University Medical College in 1980. He also received his Masters of Studies in Law (MSL) degree at University of California, Hastings College of the Law in 2013. He is the author of the popular books Fat Chance (2012), The Hacking of the American Mind (2017), and Metabolical: The Lure and the Lies of Processed Food, Nutrition, and Modern Medicine (2021). For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/69-robert-lustig  To watch this video episode on Youtube → https://youtu.be/onVqjZOYlQs

3 Touko 20231h 27min

In this episode, Simon Michaux returns to discuss his new paper “A Resource Balanced Economy”, which outlines an alternative economic and social system. This conversation builds off of his two previous episodes on The Great Simplification, unpacking the ideas and tools that will be helpful in planning for an unknown future with more energy and material constraints. How can we be more intentional about the design of our technology to make products that are longer lasting and easier to reuse? How can we organize society to create resilient communities based around actual human needs, rather than endless efficiency geared towards growth? Can an ‘Arcadian Blueprint’ emerge, and at what scale, and by whom? About Simon Michaux: Dr. Simon Michaux is an Associate Professor of Geometallurgy at the Geological Survey of Finland. He has a PhD in mining engineering. Dr. Michaux’s long-term work is on societal transformation toward a circular economy. For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/68-simon-michaux To watch this video episode on Youtube →  https://youtu.be/bb801wdRULM

26 Huhti 20231h 15min

On this episode, financial historian Edward Chancellor joins Nate to give a meta-history of interest rates and human societies. With recent news of global financial turmoil in response to rising interest rates, taking a look at our history could help us interpret our present and plan for the future. How deeply entangled is this financial predicament that we’ve gotten ourselves into? Can we learn from the past to reshape a more stable monetary policy in the future, or are inflating financial bubbles (and popping them) simply in our human nature? About Edward Chancellor: Edward Chancellor is a financial historian, journalist, and investment strategist. He is the author of Devil Take Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation and his latest book, The Price of Time, where he explains the story of capitalism is really the story of interest: the price that individuals, companies and nations pay to borrow money. He is currently a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews and a contributor to the Wall Street Journal, MoneyWeek, the New York Review of Books and Financial Times.  For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/67-edward-chancellor To watch this video episode on Youtube → https://youtu.be/q5PWaYw6h5k

19 Huhti 20231h 45min

Recorded April 10, 2023   Description  In this Frankly, Nate explains how he views the future from a probability perspective - a tool frequently used in industries such as finance, retirement planning, and by e.g. gamblers. While there will be only one eventual outcome, the possible paths to that future fall in a distribution, with some results much more likely than others. We can shift these results with our actions in the present. However, no one person can know this distribution perfectly, only the distribution shaped by their own bias, knowledge, and perspective. How might we use a probabilistic approach to better understand what’s possible - and even to better relate to others? By thinking of the future as a spectrum, can we avoid falling into traps of certainty and complacency that inevitably lead to inaction? While there are some outcomes that are impossible, there are still many within our power to steer towards during a Simplification.   To watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/uWn2svl6aBU For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/29-reality-probability-and-perception

14 Huhti 202322min